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Political Threads This section is for Political Threads - Enter at your own risk. If you say you don't want to see what someone posts - don't read it :hihi: |
10-15-2019, 07:55 AM
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#1
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Canceled
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: vt
Posts: 13,075
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Conning the Con man
Just what did America get for letting Turkey invade Syria?
Last Wednesday, the president of the United States set a new standard for America’s allies: What did you do for us at Normandy? Because Kurds did nothing, they have been given genocide in return for their help fighting the Islamic State.
It’s a nonsense standard, of course. Everyone knows that. For instance: Why are we providing Israel any support in the face of Iranian and terrorist existential threats? Where were the Jews when we needed them in the War of 1812?
By the way, both of these presumptions are incorrect. There were American Jews who fought in the War of 1812, and there were Kurdish soldiers in World War II (under British command). The problem is that during World War II, Kurds (as was the case with Jews in 1812) did not have a unified national movement, so you cannot credit the contribution to a sovereign state. But then, the American president surely knows this. Right?
Speaking about “the Kurds” can be a useful shorthand, but it obscures a lot of useful information. For instance, there is no “the Kurds,” as they do not have a country (mostly for good reasons under the current circumstances, see Michael Rubin’s Kurdistan Rising) to represent them. And Kurds are not a monolithic group. There are Iraqi, Syrian, Turkish, and Iranian Kurds. Within each group, the Kurds are divided into groups that share nothing in common but their mother-tongue. They have fought in every single regional conflict, often on opposing sides. (This includes World War II.) For example, in Syria, we have the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, which are an American ally. And also the Kurdistan’s Workers Party, which America lists as a terrorist group. Ditto everywhere else.
Back to the Trump: There is a another problem with Trump’s decision—that is, a problem aside from the problems of genocide and the future difficulties for American interests that will be caused by the abandonment of U.S. allies.
Why did the president make this decision? Perhaps the readout (which is not a transcript, stop calling it a transcript!) from his phone call with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is a good guide: If you sing the American president’s praise and give him something that benefits him personally (and not the United States), then he will give you what you want.
According to at least one report, President Trump went off script during his phone call with Recep Erdogan. For calls with foreign heads of state, the president’s assistants and advisers always prepare him by giving him the talking points that are in accordance with the thought-through policies and strategies that various U.S. agencies have spent a lot of time and resources to craft. It is critical for the American president to stick by the policies and strategies that have his own signature on them. (Metaphorically, and many times, literally). With this president, all bets are off.
This not a matter or norms and decorum and diplomatic niceties. It’s a matter of national security: If there is no coordination between the mouth of the president and the long tail of the American government—its diplomatic corps, its development agents, its fighting forces—then people can die.
At the level of the U.S. presidency, “improvisation” is another word for “mistake.” Consider how President Kennedy’s improvisation during his summit with Khrushchev in Vienna set in motion a chain of events that led to the Cuban Missile Crisis and almost started a nuclear war.
For 40 years, Donald Trump has repeatedly told America that dealmaking is his superpower, that he is the greatest negotiator ever existed.
So let’s take him at his word. He gave Turkey’s strongman a giant gift. What did he get in return?
Turkey is a U.S. treaty ally through its NATO membership. Since Congress has ratified the NATO treaty, it means that U.S. law binds America to protect Turkey, because of which we have supplied Turkey with American military goods. The problem is that Turkey has been increasingly aligning itself with Russia. Which is not only not a NATO signatory, but is the entity which NATO was created to protect Europe from.
For instance, Turkey recently purchased the Russian S-400 missile defense weapon system. This move angered the United States because Turkey’s military has typically relied on American technology and secrets. Integrating Russian weapons could expose American military secrets to Russia. It would have been good for America if, for instance, the greatest dealmaker in history had gotten Erdogan to cancel its S-400 purchase in return of greenlighting their operations against the Kurds in northern Syria.
It would have been a bad deal. But at least America would have gotten something in return for sacrificing its interests.
So far as we know, he got nothing of the sort. Or, more accurately: He got nothing.
Yesterday, the president released a statement suggesting that he had warned Erdogan about imposing costly sanctions if Turkey went after Syrian Kurds and that he now plans to enforce his threat. The Trump administration has been very comfortable with imposing economic penalties on other countries, which means Erdogan most likely believed him. Except that there is little economic cost that the United States could impose on Turkey that Erdogan would not see as worth the price in exchange for eliminating his Kurdish enemies.
And if he does impose sanctions, they will undoubtedly have the follow-on effect of pushing Turkey closer to Russia—thus giving Erdogan more incentive to share our military secrets with Putin. And sanctions will also incentivize Turkey to retaliate. What’s the easiest way for them to punish the United States and the West? Erdogan could release a bulk of Syrian refugees in Turkey into Europe to create a second refugee crisis, the first one having disrupted European politics with political costs that Europe is still paying today.
What I’m trying to say here is that the President of the United States, the person on whom the world order relies, the most important person on earth, is an impulsive idiot. He made a foreign policy decision about “the Kurds” without knowing anything about them. He provided a defense for his decision that is simultaneously historically inaccurate and irrelevant. He made this decision as his own Department of Defense recently warned that the Islamic State was a threat to reorganize. He made it with no plans of what to do with the thousands of Islamic State prisoners on the ground. He did it to end an “endless war” that, as of last month, has claimed the lives of seven American combatants—one, potentially, killed by Turkish forces. Every single one of them is a loss. But still. The truth is that America was accomplishing a significant foreign policy goal with only 2,500 troops committed (down to 1,000 before the recent developments), mostly special forces, and minimal losses. If you are against hegemonic interventions, then this operation was almost the definition of how to maximize the return on a small investment.
Trump did all of this against the advice of his own advisers. And he did it because an anti-American Islamist thug of a leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was nice to him on the phone.
Here’s the truth: There is no “endless war” in Syria. As far as the American involvement goes, there is in fact no war in Syria. What there is, is a U.S. president who is a catalyst for American decline.
And this decline is going to place us in real jeopardy and invite real conflict.
Decline brings weakness, and weakness is a provocation. Eventually, Americans are going to be given the bill for this president’s astonishing weakness.
Shay Khatiri
https://thebulwark.com/
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Frasier: Niles, I’ve just had the most marvelous idea for a website! People will post their opinions, cheeky bon mots, and insights, and others will reply in kind!
Niles: You have met “people”, haven’t you?
Lets Go Darwin
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10-15-2019, 07:59 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 8,718
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Blah blah
WW3
Blah bulwark blah yada
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
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10-15-2019, 08:03 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Somerset MA
Posts: 9,197
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US sanctions Turkish ministries
I just dont get why some people still follow this man .. there has to be a magic eight ball in his office that He consults
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10-15-2019, 08:09 AM
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#4
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Ledge Runner Baits
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: I live in a house, but my soul is at sea.
Posts: 8,456
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I think it’s the hair, it’s slow lift and fall motion while talking to the press on the lawn have a hypnotic affect on republicans, causing them to absorb the talking points like sponges.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
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10-15-2019, 09:17 AM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 10,242
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Dangles
Blah blah
WW3
Blah bulwark blah yada
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
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Well at least the bet won't double as SD has yet to post anything of substance.
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10-15-2019, 10:51 AM
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#6
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Canceled
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: vt
Posts: 13,075
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Jim Townsend says
SECDEF says he will go to NATO next week to get Allies to condemn & sanction the Turks. This is a horribly misguided tactic that won’t work with unsympathetic Allies who see this as a crisis of our own making. Breathtaking incompetence!
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Frasier: Niles, I’ve just had the most marvelous idea for a website! People will post their opinions, cheeky bon mots, and insights, and others will reply in kind!
Niles: You have met “people”, haven’t you?
Lets Go Darwin
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10-15-2019, 12:09 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 12,632
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pete F.
Jim Townsend says
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who??
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10-15-2019, 01:30 PM
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#8
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Canceled
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: vt
Posts: 13,075
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Quote:
Originally Posted by scottw
who??
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Not a reality TV star, a former Congressman or a Fox news personality
James Joye Townsend Jr. is an adjunct senior fellow in the CNAS Transatlantic Security Program.
After eight years as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for European and NATO Policy, Jim Townsend completed more than two decades of work on European and NATO policy in the Pentagon, at NATO and at the Atlantic Council. His work spanned the Cold War, post-Cold War political reconstruction in Europe and Europe's new challenges including Russia and terrorism. Through his work, he has helped execute US military engagement in almost every conflict from the Gulf War to the reintroduction of US forces into Europe to deter Russia. He also played critical roles in NATO enlargement, NATO reform, and helping to build bilateral defense relations with the new democracies coming from the breakup of the Soviet Union.
Before becoming DASD in 2009, Jim was a Vice President in the Atlantic Council of the United States and Director of the Council’s Program on International Security. In this position, he strengthened the Council’s voice and impact on transatlantic security and defense issues, making the Atlantic Council a leading player in shaping the Euro-Atlantic defense agenda.
Jim joined the Atlantic Council in 2006 after a distinguished Civil Service career at the Pentagon and at NATO. In the 1990s, Jim was the Principal Director of European and NATO Policy, the Director of NATO Policy and the Director of the Defense Plans Division at the US Mission to NATO in Brussels, Belgium.
In the 1980s, prior to working on Europe and NATO, Jim worked in Foreign Military Sales at the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) as a Country Director for European security assistance and as the assistant to the DSCA Comptroller, where he worked on most of the financial aspects involved in foreign military sales. Jim's early career also included work in the Department of State, in the Office of Congressman Charles E. Bennett and in the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA).
In 1986, Mr. Townsend received a direct commission in the U.S. Navy Reserve (intelligence) leaving the Reserves as a Lieutenant Commander.
Jim has been decorated by 11 European nations and multiple times by the Department of Defense for his work, including a Presidential Rank Award (Meritorious Executive).
He was an adjunct professor of international studies at American University and has lectured in the US and overseas at Universities, War Colleges, think tanks, and at the Foreign Service Institute. He has also provided commentary in the international press on TV, radio and in newspapers.
Mr. Townsend earned a B.A. from Duke University and an M.A. from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in International Economics and American Foreign Policy.
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Frasier: Niles, I’ve just had the most marvelous idea for a website! People will post their opinions, cheeky bon mots, and insights, and others will reply in kind!
Niles: You have met “people”, haven’t you?
Lets Go Darwin
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10-15-2019, 02:35 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 8,718
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Bruce Springsteen said that Trump will win the next election.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
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10-15-2019, 03:10 PM
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#10
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Canceled
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: vt
Posts: 13,075
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Just keep believing in Putin's Puppet
It's hard to overstate the significance of the last week, not just for America's role in the Middle East but for its global postwar standing. A few immediate observations:
The US is now what might be called a Shadowplay Superpower. Sure, it'll continue to make all the usual noises about democracy, human rights, standing with allies and so on -- but this is now gaseous nonsense completely divorced from reality, according to friend and foe.
Two of America's biggest enemies, Russia and Iran, simply cannot believe their luck that in a long line of strategic cock-ups and own goals, American elected a dumber-than-#^&#^&#^&#^& sociopath who has now gifted them (not even sold, but gifted) its interests and assets in the region.
Putin was just in Riyadh meeting with Bone Saw and note this article by Martin Chulov, which quotes the latter in conversation with Iraqis prior to the former's arrival.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...door-for-assad
In other words, even the worst partners Trump purports to value -- the Saudi royal family -- think he's a wimp and a hypocrite and wholly unreliable.
A sentiment echoed, too, by the Israelis this week, who rightly see America's withdrawal from Syria as the end of Pax Americana and the beginning of what will undoubtedly be a long and bloody carve-up of the neighborhood by hostile forces.
The region used to have Americans figures who, whatever their manifold flaws, commanded respect. In Iraq, even at the height of the occupation/civil war, it was Petraeus, Crocker, Odierno.
Now it's no one. The power brokers to everyone except perhaps the Walking Dead at the State Department and Pentagon and of course Trump's implacable band of all-is-well apologists are now: Qassem Soleimani, Vladimir Putin, Tayyip Erdogan.
And each has an incredibly compelling argument to make, especially for this part of the world: We stand by our friends and do not falter in #^&#^&#^&#^&ing over our enemies.
Each is now also in charge of ensuring that ISIS and al-Qaeda in Syria and (most of) Iraq don't come back or threaten U.S. or European interests. If you've studied Russia, Iran and Turkey's past performance here and you're no worried, up the dosage of whatever meds you're on.
For years, I've listened to well-meaning policymakers in DC tell me that the notion of America's recessional in the ME was exaggerated. People on your TV screens now have been insisting on our enduring influence and credibility against overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
I thought it was foolish and self-serving when Obama was in charge and Nouri al-Maliki was heralded as Our Man in Baghdad, etc. Now, under Trump, anyone saying this is just plain deluded.
And the image that will encapsulate this painful fact will be what you just know is coming: Mazloum Abdi, the now-former commander-in-chief of the SDF, smiling next to Soleimani and Ayatollah Khamenei in Tehran
Michael Weiss
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Frasier: Niles, I’ve just had the most marvelous idea for a website! People will post their opinions, cheeky bon mots, and insights, and others will reply in kind!
Niles: You have met “people”, haven’t you?
Lets Go Darwin
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10-15-2019, 03:14 PM
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#11
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Canceled
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: vt
Posts: 13,075
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Dangles
Bruce Springsteen said that Trump will win the next election.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
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I do know he said this also.
What do you make of the Trump phenomenon?
Well, you know, the republic is under siege by a moron, basically. The whole thing is tragic. Without overstating it, it’s a tragedy for our democracy. When you start talking about elections being rigged, you‘re pushing people beyond democratic governance. And it‘s a very, very dangerous thing to do. Once you let those genies out of the bottle, they don‘t go back in so easy, if they go back in at all. The ideas he’s moving to the mainstream are all very dangerous ideas – white nationalism and the alt-right movement. The outrageous things that he‘s done – not immediately disavowing David Duke? These are things that are obviously beyond the pale for any previous political candidate. It would sink your candidacy immediately.
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Frasier: Niles, I’ve just had the most marvelous idea for a website! People will post their opinions, cheeky bon mots, and insights, and others will reply in kind!
Niles: You have met “people”, haven’t you?
Lets Go Darwin
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10-15-2019, 06:21 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 8,718
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I dont remember this outrage when they rigged it against the Bern...
Don’t hold it against the Boss
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
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