BENWEEWEE (finance content)

[likwid]

BSC

wtf?
cheapest its been in 10 years.

[Swimmer]

Originally Posted by likwid

BSC

wtf?
cheapest its been in 10 years.

BSC ??????????

[likwid]

Originally Posted by Swimmer

BSC ??????????

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/20/maga...ion=2007082105

[fishpoopoo]

dude, steer clear of it. in fact, steer clear of all financials for the time being.

i used to work there. what a crappy firm. they are laying tons of people off right now.

they are a fixed income shop with second rate equity and derivatives franchises. they made their name in the 80's and 90's in mortgage-backed securities.

funny, for a shop that is a stickler for risk management, they had a few hedge funds blow up recently (subprime CDO's). liquidity has frozen in most mortgage-backed asset classes (the bread and butter of BSC's biz) and in spite of bernanke wussing out on interest rates ... MBS markets are not likely to improve any time soon.

there might be more skeletons in the closet.

anyhoo, if you believe in wall street consensus, according to First Call, the consensus rating is 2.31, which is basically a weak-tit buy rating.

[Swimmer]

Originally Posted by likwid

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/20/maga...ion=2007082105

Thank you Likwid........

[fishpoopoo]

Please tell me you didn't buy this stock.

Stay away from financials.

The writedowns are just the tip of the iceberg ... some industry analysts are estimating up to $500 BILLION of subprime loans will be written down in the U.S. in the near term. That's conservative, given the trillion or so of existing loans that are about to reset.

Before I jump into this name ... I'd look at the mortgage insurers first. If any of them go belly up, it's time to short Goldman Sachs.

[likwid]

The sky is falling!

[fishpoopoo]

[The Iceman 6]

We're all gonna die...

[fishpoopoo]

Originally Posted by The Iceman 6

We're all gonna die...

ah. that's not too far from the truth.

S&P500 and the Dow are poised to make a weekly close below their respective 200 day moving averages.

While I'm not an expert chartist - this is considered to be an ominous sign for the stock market.

[Nebe]

its all bush's fault.

[GonnaCatchABig1]

i'm no financial expert.. but i am going to say invest in concrete. you heard me.
do you know how many bunkers are gonna be built when the poop hits the fan with iran and russia.. and if you were paying close attention china... (yeah people say it wont happen casue we provide them with factory income. but if you paid close attention lately you would have picked up on the "buy from people you trust" comment from the bush administration. about the recalls on chinese toys. which in effect stated "buy american and/or not chinese" cutting out the chinese.. uuuuh oooohhh)

the nukes are set to fly. people need some solid concrete for them bunkers. of course if this prediction is right. screw the market. it wont matter in the mad max world. but it might buy you a bunker before it all goes haywire.

call me crazy.. i call me prepared. so far i have called it from the start over 10 yrs ago when i was 12. and everything is panning out. thats not even counting all the ancient predictions about this time period. prepare wisely.

just make sure IF it all does go as i have predicted.. you envision me saying " i told ya so" if not.. i owe you a beer..

[Backbeach Jake]

I've seen reports that the Chinese are ramping up their military big time even though they have no serious war going on. I'm investing in shot shells.

[justplugit]

Macadam is the way to go. Every road in the country needs re-paving.

[likwid]

Originally Posted by GonnaCatchABig1

just make sure IF it all does go as i have predicted.. you envision me saying " i told ya so" if not.. i owe you a beer..

This is a finance discussion not a tin foil hat discussion.

[spence]

The nukes are not set to fly. All the countries that have nukes have them locked up nice and tight, well except perhaps for the US Airforce

I'm a believer that MAD is a very powerful motivator, and everyone in the Club has something big to loose. It just doesn't make a lot of sense.

What's more disturbing is the net loss of global influence the US is going to continue to see over the next few decades. We're not headed towards WWIII, but our way of life might just need to be modified to maximize our resources and keep the USA running strong.

-spence

[striperman36]

all my trailing stops triggered this week. I am totally in cash at the moment until this next round of credit and oil issues go thru the market there are like day trades only to be had.

[fishpoopoo]

Originally Posted by likwid

This is a finance discussion not a tin foil hat discussion.

We maybe in tin foil hat discussion time now ... maybe cuz it's time to short Goldman Sachs.

Holy Sheet. GS has (had) more toxic junk that Citi or Merrill does (did).

For those that don't understand the situation ... let's use a (poor) analogy.

Originally Posted by fishpoopoo's analogy

This is a hypothetical analogy: There has been a boom in beachmaster plugs. Everybody's been buying and trading cowboys and atom 40's and rare jointed dannies and darters.

Problem crops up on some of these after 100 casts - some of them split down the middle. And then, roughly 1/3 of them ooze date plutonium paint that makes your pecker fall off if you're not careful. And another 10% of these are sea robin aphrodisiacs. The value of these things has deteriorated by 90%, and NOBODY wants to trade them AT ALL (illiquid market).

Goldman Held Bigger Share of Level 3 Assets Than Citi, Merrill

By Yalman Onaran and Christine Harper


Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. held a bigger proportion of hard-to-value assets at the end of the third quarter than Citigroup Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co., two of the firms hardest hit by subprime mortgage losses.

Goldman's Level 3 assets, for which market prices are so scarce that companies use internal models to gauge their value, accounted for 6.9 percent of the New York-based firm's $1.05 trillion total at the end of August, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Citigroup classified 5.7 percent of its assets as Level 3 on Sept. 30 and Merrill reported 2.5 percent.

Investors have grown wary of banks and brokerages with difficult-to-sell securities on their books, after profits at Citigroup and Merrill were crippled by at least $19 billion of writedowns, mostly from bonds backed by home loans to borrowers with poor credit histories. While Goldman officials say the firm won't report an ``extraordinary'' drop in its subprime holdings, investors have remained skeptical, pushing its shares down 15 percent this month in New York Stock Exchange trading.

``It's hard to believe Goldman is perfect,'' said Jon Fisher, who helps oversee $22 billion at Minneapolis-based Fifth Third Asset Management and sold his Goldman, Merrill and Morgan Stanley shares in the past 12 months. ``Their losses might be smaller than others, but that doesn't mean they don't have a problem.''

Goldman posted a 79 percent increase in third-quarter profit, the biggest on Wall Street, even after shaving $1.48 billion from the value of high-yield loans. Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. reported declines, and Merrill Lynch & Co. said $8.4 billion of writedowns led to a $2.2 billion loss, the biggest in the firm's history. All the companies are based in New York.

LBO Market

``Just because they're in Level 3 doesn't mean we're not pricing them correctly,'' Goldman Chief Accounting Officer Sarah Smith said in a Nov. 9 interview. ``We mark our positions to the point where we could exit at that moment.''

The 33 percent increase in Level 3 assets in the third quarter was mostly due to the freeze in the leveraged buyout market, which left firms including Goldman stuck with loans, Smith said. Goldman wrote down the value of those commitments when the debt was moved to Level 3. As the buyout market recovers, the loans may be upgraded to Level 2, she said.

Goldman's Level 3 holdings totaled about $72 billion at the end of August. Stripping out stakes owned by others, Goldman's ``exposure'' was $50.9 billion, or 4.9 percent of the firm's total assets. A ``substantial percentage'' are private equity and real estate investments, said Goldman spokesman Lucas van Praag.

FAS 157

While those typically fall into the Level 3 category, assets such as leveraged loan commitments shift from one level to another depending on market conditions, Smith said.

``We take issue with the notion that all assets in Level 3 are hard to value,'' said van Praag. ``Given the disclosure rules, it is inevitable that any firm with a large private equity and real estate portfolio would have significant Level 3 assets.''

All the firms have adopted a Financial Accounting Standards Board rule, known as FAS 157, which requires public companies to disclose a breakdown of their asset valuations.

Under the rule, Level 1 assets are those for which market prices are readily available. Level 2 holdings are valued based on ``observable inputs,'' or prices of similar assets traded in the market. Assets fall into the Level 3 category when there aren't even any observable inputs, and the firm has to rely on in-house models to calculate potential gains or losses.

Prince, O'Neal

Morgan Stanley, whose Level 3 assets made up 7.4 percent of the firm's total at the end of the third quarter, said last week that it wrote down $3.7 billion in the first two months of the fourth quarter because of the declining subprime market.

Most of the writedowns were related to holdings of collateralized debt obligations based on subprime mortgage bonds. Goldman, like most firms, doesn't disclose the value of its CDOs, which are securities made up of other bonds and loans, including mortgages.

When Merrill announced its third-quarter writedown, the firm said its stake in CDOs fell by more than half to $15 billion. Citigroup reported last week that it had $43 billion of asset-backed CDOs. The company has said it may have to write down $11 billion on top of the $6 billion posted in the third quarter. All the firms are based in New York.

Shares of Citigroup and Merrill dropped more than 19 percent this month, and Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Charles O. ``Chuck'' Prince and Stan O'Neal, his counterpart at Merrill, lost their jobs.

`Measurement Error'

``The market does not exist for a lot of these things,'' said Edward Ketz, an associate professor of accounting at Pennsylvania State University in University Park, Pennsylvania. ``Third level measures are fraught with lots of measurement error, in part because you are using assumptions.''

Lehman, the biggest U.S. underwriter of mortgage bonds, categorized 5.3 percent of its assets as Level 3 and Bear Stearns, the second-largest, reported 4.2 percent.

``Even Level 2 is hard to price,'' said Roger Lister, chief credit officer for financial institutions at Dominion Bond Rating Service. ``Writedowns are coming out of Level 2 as well as 3. In the world of fixed income, prices have become less observable in the last few months. That's why Level 3 is surging.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Yalman Onaran in New York at yonaran@bloomberg.net ; Christine Harper in New York at charper@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: November 12, 2007 00:21 EST

[fishpoopoo]

bwahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.



we interrupt this bear market rally with news of an investment bank blowup.

BSC at $35, down $22.

Bear Stearns Gets Emergency Bailout From JPMorgan, New York Fed

By Yalman Onaran


March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Bear Stearns Cos. obtained emergency funding from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the New York Federal Reserve as the securities firm said its cash position had ``significantly deteriorated.''

The New York Fed will ``provide non-recourse, back-to- back'' financing for up to 28 days, JPMorgan said in a statement today. Bear Stearns said it was in talks with the New York-based bank ``regarding permanent funding or other alternatives.''

Bear Stearns plummeted $11.90, or 20.8 percent, to $45.10 at 9:54 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the lowest level in more than six years. The shares are down more than 50 percent this year.

Chief Executive Officer Alan Schwartz said in a statement that the firm acted in response to ``market rumors'' of a liquidity crisis. He had denied this week that the firm faced a cash shortage, saying the company's ``liquidity cushion'' was sufficient to weather the credit-market contraction.

``We have tried to confront and dispel these rumors and parse fact from fiction,'' Schwartz sad in the New York-based company's statement today. ``Nevertheless, amidst this market chatter, our liquidity position in the last 24 hours had significantly deteriorated.''

``The issue now is whether Bear Stearns customers will stick around,'' said Bruce Foerster, president of South Beach Capital Markets and a former Wall Street executive. ``Some others have gotten through the same kind of troubles, some ended up being shut down or sold. I'm hoping Bear can get past it.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Yalman Onaran in New York at yonaran@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 14, 2008 09:55 EDT

[nightfighter]

ka boom....... Ben and I spoke of this possiblity last summer. Of course I am now a contractor, jaded from a 20 year stint on Wall Street.........

[TheSpecialist]

Ben my buddy was looking for a job at differant places on friday, he works at Bear

On another note how bout these four letters SGMO, think DNA....

[likwid]

LEH

Thurs? Maybe Fri?

[Swimmer]

Originally Posted by likwid

LEH

Thurs? Maybe Fri?

Yah, Lehman was mention as a distinct possibilty also. It is interesting how greed affects us all.

What about Mort Zuckermans desciption of the sub-prime loans as LIAR LOANS?

It is interesting when companies like these score large they share the wealth with just themselves, ie; stockholders and so on, but when they collapse it comes out of our pockets.

No one should be allowed to sell off loans anymore. Once it is out of the originators sight it is also out of mind.

[MakoMike]

Originally Posted by Swimmer

Yah, Lehman was mention as a distinct possibilty also. It is interesting how greed affects us all.

What about Mort Zuckermans desciption of the sub-prime loans as LIAR LOANS?

It is interesting when companies like these score large they share the wealth with just themselves, ie; stockholders and so on, but when they collapse it comes out of our pockets.

No one shold be allowed to sell off loans anymore. Once it is out of the originators sight it is also out of mind.

Now there's a great prescription for totally shutting down all the credit markets as well as the national economy!

[likwid]

Total fear and loathing right now.
Dollar is crashing hard.

[Swimmer]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

Now there's a great prescription for totally shutting down all the credit markets as well as the national economy!

Makomike, its the large scale problem created by the home loan originators and the borrowers who both worked to create unverifiable nonexistent income, that created this mess. I don't see how reining in those originators and the companies they work for as the F.B.I. is starting to do will hurt. It is theft on a grand scale. It is going to shut down the economy all by itself without any help from anyone else. Just watch. This isn't much different from the house flipping scandals of a decade or more ago. That partailly collapsed the real estate market for about a year when that occurred. More greed and outright theft. The originator gets his, the real estate broker gets his, the attorneys get thiers, the originators company gets thiers, and the loan buyer gets left holding the bag. Not this time though. This time its us!

[mosholu]

I have to say I agree with MakoMike. I do not know how you can do this legally without drastically changing the way business is done but it is very problematic that these Wall Street guys take down millions in comp every year and when their business is threatened because of their recklessness the taxpayers have to pony up. Meanwhile these guys get to keep all their gains from the years running up to the crash.
The government should charge all the banks a yearly fee for being the backstop. No private workout company would ever do a deal without taking a big piece of the potential upside yet the government using our money step in every 7 years or so and gets these guys back on their feet and we see nothing from it.

[Fishpart]

The worst part is that the average Ed who saves his money and is up to date on his mortgage will never reap the benefit from a low interest rate. The mortgage rate won't go low enough to refi, but the interest rate on any savings will go deeper into the toilet than it already is.... Meanwhile the institutions getting the ultra low interest money from the taxpayer will turn around and invest it in T_Bills and make even more off the back of the taxpayer and their balance sheets will look great.


Kind of ironic the DJIA was up 420 yesterday

[MakoMike]

Originally Posted by Swimmer

Makomike, its the large scale problem created by the home loan originators and the borrowers who both worked to create unverifiable nonexistent income, that created this mess. I don't see how reining in those originators and the companies they work for as the F.B.I. is starting to do will hurt. It is theft on a grand scale. It is going to shut down the economy all by itself without any help from anyone else. Just watch. This isn't much different from the house flipping scandals of a decade or more ago. That partailly collapsed the real estate market for about a year when that occurred. More greed and outright theft. The originator gets his, the real estate broker gets his, the attorneys get thiers, the originators company gets thiers, and the loan buyer gets left holding the bag. Not this time though. This time its us!

You said "No one shold be allowed to sell off loans anymore." That would totally shut down the credit markets, which in turn would totally shut down the economy. It would affect both big and small businesses, big companies couldn't float bonds or commercial paper, small companies couldn't get loans from the SBA or their local banks becuse those insitutions could borrow funds. The housing market would dry up in a POOF, when Fannie Mae couldn't raise funds, kids would be thrown out of school when Sallie-mae couldn't get funds for student loans. IN short most economic sctivity would come to a grinding halt.

[Swimmer]

Let me refine my answer just a bit, home loan mortgage originators should be reined in, not commercial business loan companies. Commercial lending from banks to businesses has little or maybe nothing at all to do with the current sub-prime fiasco. Other than one is lending money to the other to cover the bad debt incurred by originators, who work for companies like Country Wide that obviously never bothered to check what thier employees were doing. All Country Wide did was count the money they earned after selling the mortages they issued to unqualified people. The sub-prime mortgage fiasco was what I was referring too. No one anywhere has said bank to business loans, the SBA, sallie mae, which sucks by the way since it outsourced its servicing to India, or any commercial lending started or had anything to do with the current crisis.