OPEC can't and won't replace supply if Iran is attacked.

[likwid]

Soooo.... $10/gal gas anyone?

MADRID (Reuters) - OPEC could not replace lost Iranian output should Tehran carry out its threat to stop oil exports if attacked, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said on Tuesday.

"It's obvious that if you curtail 4 million barrels per day (bpd) from the market, you are going to have a big problem. I don't see who can replace that, including OPEC," Khelil told a news conference in Madrid.

Khelil said the perceived threat of conflict had helped to drive oil prices higher, although he said the main reason for crude near $143 a barrel was the weakness of the U.S. dollar.

"Unless we address those causes we're not going to see low oil prices ... We need to do something about geopolitics. We need to do something about the dollar," Khelil, who is also Algeria's oil minister, said.

Fears that Iran, OPEC's second largest producer and the world's fourth biggest producer, could retaliate by disrupting oil exports if attacked by Israel or the United States over its nuclear program have weighed on the oil market for months.

The depreciation of the U.S. dollar was another big factor, Khelil said, adding that its impact on the oil price was even greater.

Oil, like most commodities, is priced in dollars and most commodity prices have rallied to make up for the drop in the value of the currency used to price them.

The dollar has fallen sharply against the euro and a basket of currencies as the U.S. Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates this year to shore up the financial system and the wider economy from a credit crunch triggered by crisis involving sub-prime mortgages.

Khelil said oil prices would probably rise again if the European Central Bank raised interest rates on Thursday because the euro would strengthen against the U.S. Continued...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/busine...LA572420080702

[Mr. Sandman]

Originally Posted by likwid

Soooo.... $10/gal gas anyone?

MADRID (Reuters) - OPEC could not replace lost Iranian output should Tehran carry out its threat to stop oil exports if attacked, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said on Tuesday.

"It's obvious that if you curtail 4 million barrels per day (bpd) from the market, you are going to have a big problem. I don't see who can replace that, including OPEC," Khelil told a news conference in Madrid.

Khelil said the perceived threat of conflict had helped to drive oil prices higher, although he said the main reason for crude near $143 a barrel was the weakness of the U.S. dollar.

"Unless we address those causes we're not going to see low oil prices ... We need to do something about geopolitics. We need to do something about the dollar," Khelil, who is also Algeria's oil minister, said.

Fears that Iran, OPEC's second largest producer and the world's fourth biggest producer, could retaliate by disrupting oil exports if attacked by Israel or the United States over its nuclear program have weighed on the oil market for months.

The depreciation of the U.S. dollar was another big factor, Khelil said, adding that its impact on the oil price was even greater.

Oil, like most commodities, is priced in dollars and most commodity prices have rallied to make up for the drop in the value of the currency used to price them.

The dollar has fallen sharply against the euro and a basket of currencies as the U.S. Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates this year to shore up the financial system and the wider economy from a credit crunch triggered by crisis involving sub-prime mortgages.

Khelil said oil prices would probably rise again if the European Central Bank raised interest rates on Thursday because the euro would strengthen against the U.S. Continued...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/busine...LA572420080702

I am getting sick of Iran...Let's just take them over thru force, make them the 51st state, secure an instant domestic oil supply (in someone else's backyard) and stabilize the Iran/Israel tensions at the same time. Problem solved. Maybe Bush can pull this off prior to leaving.

[Joe]

And you can't just bomb the nuke facilities either...you have to dismantle their ability to impede oil traffic in the gulf.

[justplugit]

Originally Posted by Joe

...you have to dismantle their ability to impede oil traffic in the gulf.

Complicated for sure with mining of shipping lanes.

[justplugit]

Not to worry.

Barack Obama will make nice to Iran and they will end their hatreds,

dismantle the Shahab 3s and shut down their nuclear centrifuges.

All will be well.

Unless of course he "changes" his mind.

[likwid]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sandman

Let's just take them over thru force

WORKING GREAT IN IRAQ!
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

[The Dad Fisherman]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sandman

Maybe Bush can pull this off prior to leaving.

I don't know...thats a tad more complicated than looking to see which shoe says "L" and which shoe says "R"

[likwid]

Originally Posted by The Dad Fisherman

I don't know...thats a tad more complicated than looking to see which shoe says "L" and which shoe says "R"

[Nebe]

natural gas and electric is going up 20% in RI as of yesterday.. aaarrrrg/

[Bronko]

Everyone calm down. Obama will save us. Hope and Change go a long way with oil speculators and arabs.

[Rockport24]

you know even if US companies got complete control of a lot of those oil fields in the middle east or drilled up a bunch offshore and in ANWR, all the oil still goes into the global market for trade, so it's not like it would be directly beneficial to us as consumers, it would A LOT more beneficial to anyone who holds stock in oil companies though
the US would have to get to a point where ALL it's oil came from it's own resources so we could break away from the foreign market.
That would take more than just a few wars I imagine.

[spence]

Originally Posted by Rockport24

you know even if US companies got complete control of a lot of those oil fields in the middle east or drilled up a bunch offshore and in ANWAR, all the oil still goes into the global market for trade, so it's not like it would be directly beneficial to us as consumers, it would A LOT more beneficial to anyone who holds stock in oil companies though
the US would have to get to a point where ALL it's oil came from it's own resources so we could break away from the foreign market.
That would take more than just a few wars I imagine.

That's why many countries with large reserves have been nationalizing their resources.

-spence

[buckmanjr]

I know what your saying Spence. Hopefully there are people in charge at the time who will do what has to be done and not fall for Irans BS.

And by the way likwid, we did oust Saddam and his army in the blink of an eye. I'm pretty sure even Bush new it would take a long time before the whole thing would be over. You just hear what you want to hear. If it's anti American and anti Bush you jump right on the band wagon.

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by buckmanjr

I'm pretty sure even Bush new it would take a long time before the whole thing would be over.

B.S.

My good friend (A republican) and I talked about this last night.
His take:
Either A. they lied to us about why we went in to Iraq.
or B. They were wrong and wont admit it.

He couldnt decide which was worse.

Iran scares the crap out of me. If we go in there it will be an even worse situation than Iraq. Meanwhile Afghanistan, where we probably should be in full force, is sliding further downhill...

[Joe]

I think the administration thought that by now U.S. oil companies would be in control of Iraqi oil reserves and the spigot would be wide open to meet global demand.

[buckman]

Sorry. I posted that under my son's name.

[buckman]

Play back the speaches Bush gave after 9/11 and leading up to war. Play back what he said after Suddam was ousted. He made it very clear that this would be a long haul. I recall things a little different then you guys. We all wondered if America had the stomach for a war that would last years and years. I guess we know the answer to that. Glad this generation wasn't in charge during World War I and II.

[Joe]

You might want to check the start and stop dates for the two world wars.

[Rockport24]

Originally Posted by Joe

You might want to check the start and stop dates for the two world wars.

ya good point, we've already exceeded WWII with Iraq

[Nebe]

Originally Posted by Joe

You might want to check the start and stop dates for the two world wars.

ha! nice one Joe.

The folks in the whitehouse now are simply lobbyists who were voted in.. they are wolves in sheeps clothing. If you look at what they have done these past few years you will see that they have systematicly dismantled anything that was hindering coerperate profits for the good of the people- they loosened refinery restrictions so the oil companies could make more money, they loosened restrictions on logging, what ever they could do to help corperations make more money was the highest priority- the war in Iraq- im not even going there..
Sure, they pander to the christian base and talk the talk, but in the end, none of them give two craps about you or me or any one.

[Rockport24]

oh man, don't know why I am getting involved but:
the funny thing is Bush DID say that the war on terrorism would be a long-haul, but if we were really that concerned about terrorism, why aren't we more invovled with Afghanistan? why can we pull Saddam out of a goddam hole in the ground, but we can't find Bin Laden?
it's all very interesting to me.

[RIROCKHOUND]

Buckman;
War on terror = Long Haul
War in Iraq = 'Mission Accomplished?'

[Joe]

If we end up with cheaper oil from Iraq, the war looks a lot better.

[Rockport24]

so true, you know, if that were to happen miraculously in the next few months and Bush said "just kidding about terrorism, it was about the oil control all along and now the world is better because oil is cheaper"
I would be a lot happier too, you know I could care less if Bush and his cronies make all the money, as long as it makes things cheaper for us!

[EarnedStripes44]

The oil wont be much cheaper even when it starts flowing out Iraq. Relatively inelastic demand and a weak dollar will ensure a gallon of gas stays well above 3.50 for the short term. Once they raise interests rates on the Euro, were going to see another run up in price on a barrel of oil. Does not look like there will be much in way of relief anytime soon.

[buckman]

I'm not just talking time, and you know it. We are still in Korea,Vietnam,and Germany. We are involved in Afghanistan, heavily involved, maybe you experts can tell me the amount of involvment you are looking for. What's so interesting about Bin Laden not being caught yet. That idiot Bush pulling off another con lke 9/11?

[likwid]

Originally Posted by buckman

We are still in Korea,Vietnam,and Germany.

And none of those places have the JAM blowing people up for the hell of it.

[spence]

Originally Posted by buckman

I'm not just talking time, and you know it. We are still in Korea,Vietnam,and Germany. We are involved in Afghanistan, heavily involved, maybe you experts can tell me the amount of involvment you are looking for. What's so interesting about Bin Laden not being caught yet. That idiot Bush pulling off another con lke 9/11?

I don't think anyone, including Barak Obama, has any issue with the USA being heavily involved in the Middle East to protect our interests over the long haul and assert ourselves.

But to claim Bush made is clear to the American people that Iraq would be a long drawn out event is really intellectually dishonest. They made is painfully clear that this was a pretty straightforward mission which wasn't going to cost all that much. That the Iraqi people were basically just waiting for us to remove Saddam so they could get on with being our friends...

When the lack of planning started to be obvious, they kept clear from pragmatic policy in favor of election rhetoric, insisting we "stay the course" and steadfastly refusing to confront reality with reason.

Bush put the survival of the GOP ahead of our troops and their mission. History will not be kind to GWB.

-spence

[Rockport24]

ok, there are 32,000 troops in Afghanistan compared with about 150,000 in Iraq, I would say that's not as heavily involved