Hurricane Bill - interesting path

[JohnR]

Interesting early forecasted path

[spence]

Looks like a slim chance it could stay south and miss the low pressure front that's supposed to push it offshore.

-spence

[Raven]

whama jammer - we're over due

maybe we should hire Monica to do a beach exorcism

[Back Beach]

Watch out on the rocks this weekend. Higher than usual tides coupled with a big swell can be quite dangerous. Even if the storm misses us way east, there's still going to be some impact.

[Mr. Sandman]

I hate these %$%$%$%$ing things...this is headed right at us. I hope it goes away. Then again, it could screw up Obama's vacation and that is worth something.

[BigFish]

Al Roker says headed out to sea! You alarmists better gas up the car and stock up on water, milk, bread, batteries and candles!

[slow eddie]

their predicting the low presure area will be over n.j. by the weekend and will push it out to sea. meanwhile, i'm putting oar locks on the house.
batten down the hatches matey.

[SirWinston]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Interesting early forecasted path

'Interesting' is not the first choice of description when your first family vacation in six years (small kids) is on the shore in East Falmouth friday for a week .........

In fact, I can think of several very Saxon ones. All I can do is hope that the meteorologists are as accurate at soothsaying as they usually are, and that the blasted storm heads way out east.
Probably hubris, but.....

[BassDawg]

Originally Posted by SirWinston

'Interesting' is not the first choice of description when your first family vacation in six years (small kids) is on the shore in East Famouth friday for a week .........

In fact, I can think of several very Saxon ones. All I can do is hope that the meteorologists are as accurate at soothsaying as they usually are, and that the blasted storm heads way out east.
Probably hubris, but.....

sorry about your vacation plans, SW.
hope it's just a glancing blow and not a stiff Noreaster uppercut.

[RIROCKHOUND]

The really long range forecasts have it spinning further out that that picture, but still coming roughly as close before turning....

[The Iceman 6]

I've had some of my best fishing during hurricanes. I do like the name too.

[Joe]

I'm going down to Hazard Ave and get a video for my site of somebody getting washed away - then I'll get some PFD's and Korkers and make a killin'

[BassDawg]

HALLELUJAH!!!
funny sheeeet, as always, Joe!

this could be the END of the doldrums

and the beginning of the BITE

thanks to you Bill and the Boss for the projected path.
FINALLY, there WILL be SURF and just in tiime for the New!!!

[RIJIMMY]

we're flying out Monday am, I hope all is quiet by then, I need a vacation bad.

[Mr. Sandman]

Cape Cod now in the cone of uncertainty. Watch out...this one could be the one. I don't like this path.

Al Roker... he is not weatherman, he is a TV personality.

[nightfighter]

Sunday/Monday forecasts showing 8-12' coastal, 10-15' outer coastal, and up to 35' on the Grand Banks.... Looks like the tuna trip window closes Saturday, at least for a few days.

Should at least have some good surf for Saturday's North Shore Leg at Plum Island.

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sandman

Cape Cod now in the cone of uncertainty. Watch out...this one could be the one. I don't like this path.

Yeah, I was with you a day or so ago, but that High coming in should be big enough to block it and send it out to the Maritimes...

What do you mean? I saw Al Roker interviewing the cast of the Office...

[quick decision]

Look, look at this. We got Hurricane Bill moving north off the Atlantic seaboard. Huge... getting massive. Two, this low south of Sable Island, ready to explode. Look at this. Three, a fresh cold front swooping down from Canada. But it's caught a ride on the jet stream... and is motoring hell-bent towards the Atlantic. What if Hurricane Bill runs smack into it? Add to the scenario this baby off Sable Island, scrounging for energy. She'll start feeding off both the Canadian cold front... and Hurricane Bill. You could be a meteorologist all your life... and never see something like this. It would be a disaster of epic proportions. It would be... the perfect storm.

[likwid]

From a weather router:

Only the GFS model takes Bill right down the pipe for Bermuda. The rest of the models are more westerly in their tracks and the official forecast from NHC/NWS assumes the western models are correct and takes a slightly west biased route.

All of the guidance is predicated on the troughs out in the Atlantic and the yet to form trough in the far Eastern US to affect the high pressure out in the Atlantic (Bill's steering wheel).

As the storm only appears to be threatening Bermuda at the moment, Bill will need to find the needle in the haystack to threaten life and property and while that is possible, I am not losing any sleep over his forecast path....Yet. Let's see how dramatic the NW turn is in 36-72 hours and that will give us a much better sense of where he is going.

Also keep your eye on the disturbed weather between Cuba/ Bahamas/Florida. Nothing yet and the NHC says "low probs" but they had "No Probs" in the area where Claudette formed...

[Crafty Angler]

I dunno, they changed the predicted track as of this AM bringing it closer to the Cape

Without a doubt, it bears watching at this point...

Raven, ya might wanna check with your Indian friend on this one...I've got a call in to the old Portagee down the street but he's out right now

He may be in the yard securing his tomato plants

[likwid]

Originally Posted by Crafty Angler

I dunno, they changed the predicted track as of this AM bringing it closer to the Cape

NHC doesn't have much faith in that

[Crafty Angler]

Originally Posted by likwid

NHC doesn't have much faith in that

I'm gonna wait for word from the old Portagoosie down the street, myself

And check the 11 AM NHC update just to be sure

[RIROCKHOUND]

we'll see.
I have faith in the high to keep it out to sea and keep us to T.S force wind gusts max... I haven't seen a model that puts the east side near S.E. New England, and NONE that have the freight train track of 38...

[likwid]

Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND

we'll see.
I have faith in the high to keep it out to see and keep us to T.S force wind gusts max... I haven't seen a model that puts the east side near S.E. New England, and NONE that have the freight train track of 38...

Still a bit too early to make any solid predictions.
Tomorrow night could be a go/no go.

[RIROCKHOUND]

I'm sticking with what I said above , maybe TS gusts, and maybe the extreme west edge brushes ACK....

[RIROCKHOUND]

Bill has continued to move on a steady northwest track or 305
degrees at 16 knots...embedded within the flow surrounding the
Azores-Bermuda high. In about two days...the hurricane will become
steered northward and then northeastward by the flow between a
large mid-latitude trough swinging eastward across the eastern
United States and the subtropical high. Once the recurvature
begins...the hurricane should increase in forward speed. Most of
the track guidance shifted slightly to the west compared to the
previous run. This shift in guidance justifies a very small shift
to the west of the track official forecast...which indeed is very
close to the consensus.


Large swells generated by this hurricane are affecting the northern
Leeward Islands and should begin affecting the Bahamas...Bermuda...
most of the eastern U.S. Coast...and the Atlantic Maritimes of
Canada during the next few days. These swells will likely
cause extremely dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents.
Please consult statements issued by your local weather office for
more details.


This afternoon NOAA and the 53rd hurricane hunters will be
conducting a two-aircraft synoptic surveillance mission around
Hurricane Bill to improve the initial analysis for the numerical
models.

[striperman36]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...s_slp_072s.gif


72 hour has precip right on top of the cape

[Joe]

There's a good book, A Wind To Shake The World, about the 38' Hurricane. It was written by a summer resident that had one of the forty or so cottages that lined Napatree Point.

[spence]

Originally Posted by Joe

There's a good book, A Wind To Shake The World, about the 38' Hurricane. It was written by a summer resident that had one of the forty or so cottages that lined Napatree Point.

Definitely a good read. A simple book that doesn't take long, but will bring a whole new perspective to many areas we're all familiar with.

-spence

[striperman36]

Not alot of wind either, very outer cape only