Cairo

[spence]

Pretty interesting what's going on today. Looks like the military isn't doing much...odds are Mubarak won't last long unless there's a brutal crackdown...

Egypt is such an influential country in the region...this is big.

-spence

[JohnR]

Very big.

I was reading somewhere the some army units were giving gas masks to the protesters.

If Mubarak doesn't have the backing of the Army, he's done.

A truly democratic Egypt would be interesting, maybe El Baradei has a chance.

More protests in Jordan. Could get real interesting.

[spence]

Originally Posted by JohnR

If Mubarak doesn't have the backing of the Army, he's done.

Heard a report earlier that the US Military was already talking to the Egyptian army...and that the same thing happened in Tunisia. Perhaps the generals talking man on man to work out a deal to keep things from falling into chaos?

Granted, Eqypt is a different situation and with a much larger army...but...

-spence

[UserRemoved]

"U.S. President Barack Obama called on Egyptian authorities Friday to refrain from violence and to reverse any actions they have taken to limit access to the internet in the wake of protests there."

THAT'S THE BEST HE CAN DO?



he's supermAn

what a fin schmuck

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by Saltys

"U.S. President Barack Obama called on Egyptian authorities Friday to refrain from violence and to reverse any actions they have taken to limit access to the internet in the wake of protests there."

THAT'S THE BEST HE CAN DO?



he's supermAn

what a fin schmuck

I'm no Obama apologist but not much he can do. He can shut up Joe Biden from making more dumba$$ comments.

Some other interesting analysis: NightWatch 20110128 - KGS

If you are interested in stuff that happened in the course of the night, Nightwatch tends to be better than CNN

[Raven]

you forgot the hyphen between F and IN
thereby insulting all manner of fishes ! DO that AGAIN!
and ALL my chipmunks go to your HOUSE !

[Raven]

it APPEARS that the TUNISIAN demonstration
started the whole thing and because of the INTERNET
postings on TWITTER and or Facebook and subsequent video's
launched it...

A small world we're in now EH?

Here we have this MARVELOUS tool for
world wide communication and scientific advancement
yet it is FUELING the violence of "Change" instead.

MR OBAMA , could you please "change" this.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by JohnR

I'm no Obama apologist but not much he can do.

Yes there is. He could do what Regan did when citizens (subjects) of the USSR started protestring, and Regan made it clear that freeedom, and not tyranny, is what's best for the world. Regan had no problem calling the Soviet Union "evil", he did it all the time. And just like today, all the liberals told him not to say it. Regan realized that battle, the Cold War, was going to have a winner and a loser, and he made it crystal clear where we would be when it was over. And he was right.

Real, decisive leadership involves calling a spade a spade. We elected a guy who likes to vote "present", instead of yea or nea, on any tough issue. Obama is a joke. And what no one is saying is that Hilary has to be the worst Secstate of the last 100 years. In terms of foreign policy, they can't get one right even by accident.

Protesters get slaughtered in Iran, Obama/Clinton don't utter a peep. China refuses any concessions. European nations refuse to send additional troops to Afghanistan, and they refuse to finance their own stimulus packages. Iran gets closer and closer to nukes. The North Koreans are running amuck.

They are an absolute joke, we'd be better off with Abbott and Costello. Obama believes, he genuinely believes, he can charm all our enemies into liking us. If only that were so, but it ain't...

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Yes there is. He could do what Regan did when citizens (subjects) of the USSR started protestring, and Regan made it clear that freeedom, and not tyranny, is what's best for the world. Regan had no problem calling the Soviet Union "evil", he did it all the time. And just like today, all the liberals told him not to say it. Regan realized that battle, the Cold War, was going to have a winner and a loser, and he made it crystal clear where we would be when it was over. And he was right.

Real, decisive leadership involves calling a spade a spade. We elected a guy who likes to vote "present", instead of yea or nea, on any tough issue. Obama is a joke. And what no one is saying is that Hilary has to be the worst Secstate of the last 100 years. In terms of foreign policy, they can't get one right even by accident.

Protesters get slaughtered in Iran, Obama/Clinton don't utter a peep. China refuses any concessions. European nations refuse to send additional troops to Afghanistan, and they refuse to finance their own stimulus packages. Iran gets closer and closer to nukes. The North Koreans are running amuck.

They are an absolute joke, we'd be better off with Abbott and Costello. Obama believes, he genuinely believes, he can charm all our enemies into liking us. If only that were so, but it ain't...

Far different situation wrt Iron Curtain. And yes, he can certainly say a lot but how much can he do?

I know this won't work because it is far too over simplified
Backs Hosni - Hosni fails, IB gains status / face
Backs Protesters - looses Army

Now if he backs the Army, and the Army can move Egypt more democratic which still marginalizes IB, there is a chance. But if the economy on the street doesn't improve...

In the meantime there will likely be pull among the three lands that are trying to be / traditionally have been the center of gravity of the muslim world; Turkey, Iran, Egypt...

While I would love to see a sweep of real democracy across the Arab / Persian world, with functioning democracies and all, we are talking about the Arab world, perhaps the most (2nd most?) dysfunctional region in the world. South America has been transitioning for 100 something years and isn't done with all its past and current fall backs.

How could the Arab world do it sooner or safer?

We live in interesting times.

/ramble

[spence]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Far different situation wrt Iron Curtain. And yes, he can certainly say a lot but how much can he do?

I think it's quite different. There's not a lot of love for the USA among the Egyptian street. If Obama is seen to be taking sides it's just going to empower groups like the Muslim Brotherhood who can point to US interference over the decades as the root of their economic problems.

So much of Reagan's rhetoric towards the USSR was simply political cover here at home while he actively worked with the Russians to negotiate deals as the cold war was winding down. Russia was falling apart and Reagan was looking for the best deal he could get. From what I've read both he and Gorbachev wanted to be seen as peacemakers.

I don't think there's any parallel between the situations Obama faces today...

No matter what happens in public, behind the scene I'm sure we're backing the military. I was reading up on how tight we actually are and it's quite dramatic.

-spence

[scottw]

Originally Posted by JohnR

I'm no Obama apologist but not much he can do.

"YES...WE....AHHHHHH....HE...CAN!"
"YES...WE....AHHHHHH....HE...CAN!"
"YES...WE....AHHHHHH....HE...CAN!"
"YES...WE....AHHHHHH....HE...CAN!"
"YES...WE....AHHHHHH....HE...CAN!"

AHHHH...just words

for a guy that has so much to say so frequently, he has surprisingly little to say when people are actually hoping he'll say something....

[buckman]

Mubarak's ties to the military are solid. I would expect a military crack down in the near future.

[Sea Dangles]

Tunisia was a solid country until very recently.Last year my wife went there on a business trip for Fidelity.Now we are looking at another solid country in the region falter,small world is right.

[spence]

BBC is reporting that Mubarak's sons have fled to London.

-spence

[striperman36]

With the cabinet resignation's there's not many he can get support from. This could get ugly.

I wonder if all the US money flowing in, and the weapons we supply would be pulled, if there was a religious direction change.

[spence]

Originally Posted by striperman36

I wonder if all the US money flowing in, and the weapons we supply would be pulled, if there was a religious direction change.

I think that's a nobrainer. The reports yesterday were already that the White house threatened to yank the 1.5B in yearly aid if Mubarak cracked down too hard...

I'd wager that Obama would rather see Mubarak stay in power with deep concessions. Last thing we need is a country the size of Egypt to completely fall apart...I don't think there's a large enough radical presence to assert much power, but you'd certainly see the chess pieces in the region start to move around.

-spence

[striperman36]

Maybe if Mubarack can hold on to 2012, Barry can go over when he's done.

[spence]

The real threat is a rise in the Muslim Brotherhood who would push politics toward the religious right and create tension with Israel.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by spence

The real threat is a rise in the Muslim Brotherhood who would push politics toward the religious right and create tension with Israel.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

that's what I'm sayin. Like Iran

[Fishpart]

The main reason for helping keep a Western friendly government in power is the Suez. Strategicly it is more important than the Panama canal right now...

[striperman36]

What's the tonnage limit of the Suez? Most oil goes around not through the Suez, IMO it's been fading in importance

[basswipe]

Because of this situation its being speculated that the price of crude could spike at close to $200 a barrel.Will this happen probably not but I'm not taking any chances.Just bought 175gals. at $3.05 today.Will be delivered 1st thing Mon. morning.This should get me thru the majority of Feb/Mar.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by spence

The real threat is a rise in the Muslim Brotherhood who would push politics toward the religious right and create tension with Israel.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Bingo...

[Nebe]

Isreal is #^&#^&#^&#^&ting bricks over this.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[buckman]

Originally Posted by Nebe

Isreal is #^&#^&#^&#^&ting bricks over this.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

Even Obama would back Isreal. We should be sh$%ing bricks.

[spence]

Originally Posted by buckman

Even Obama would back Isreal. We should be sh$%ing bricks.

I'm not so sure...

The peace deal lasted 30 years, largely because the Egyptian military didn't have any reason to break it. It's largely secular, and to incite unrest or ignore radicalism means they loose their money for bread and milk.

Unless the power shifted dramatically to the right, which isn't likely to happen to quickly, why would the military have any motive to not continue to cooperate?

It's also possible that this event will actually move parts of the Muslim Brotherhood towards the middle as they try to gain legitimacy as a viable political entity by distancing themselves from the more fundamental movements they actually helped spawn.

-spence

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by spence

It's also possible that this event will actually move parts of the Muslim Brotherhood towards the middle as they try to gain legitimacy as a viable political entity by distancing themselves from the more fundamental movements they actually helped spawn.

-spence

Hahaha - well, I suppose it is possible. And while the MB *might* move a little more docile, many will splinter off and go more radical. So while the name may move more center many of the participants may become more radical.

I am crossing my fingers that this moves more real democracy in Egypt but this is the middle east. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

[scottw]

Originally Posted by spence

It's also possible that this event will actually move parts of the Muslim Brotherhood towards the middle as they try to gain legitimacy as a viable political entity by distancing themselves from the more fundamental movements they actually helped spawn.

-spence

more likely pretend to move to the middle(ala Obama) to gain legitimacy as a viable political entity and/while empowering/entrenching the more fundamental movements they helped spawn.....

To this day, the Brotherhood’s motto remains, “Allah is our objective, the Prophet is our leader, the Koran is our law, Jihad is our way, and dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope. Allahu akbar!”

McCarthy does a very thorough job reminding us who the "Brotherhood" actually is

Fear the Muslim Brotherhood - Andrew C. McCarthy - National Review Online

[spence]

And I thought you'd be tickled to see I wrote something just because I knew it would go right up your ass

I forgot I was supposed to be ignoring you.

-spence

[scottw]

Originally Posted by spence

And I thought you'd be tickled to see I wrote something just because I knew it would go right up your ass

-spence

"I'm Congressman Barney Frank.... and I approved this message"

what happened to the "new era of civility"...or "era of new civility" or "new civility era" ?