Don't believe global warming is happening?

[spence]

Just wanted to show OAK what ranting really looks like

-spence

[bart]

thanks bryan-- I have a geology exam tomorrow. you basically just summarized what i've been learning for the past coupla weeks.

[Jenn]

this global warming issue has been around for more than four years and it certainly didnt happen overnite!!!!!!

take a look at the history of the earth and what has been different in the last 100-150 years or so.....

[spence]

Originally posted by Jenn
take a look at the history of the earth and what has been different in the last 100-150 years or so.....

If I remember correctly, the rate of climate change has increased dramatically in the last 35 years.

-spence

[Raven]

is here to stay..... but lets say the average mean temperature increases by just one degree. that will increase the oceans height by ten feet.... which means fishing "in" downtown Boston, Providence , Newyork and any other coastal city will happen.

But the main thing to realize is that when the polar ice caps and or glaciers melt and add all that water to our ecosystem,
it will increase precipitation otherwise known as rain and or snow making for huge blizzards ...with ten foot snowfalls becoming normal and not the unusual.... so that will make for real long NARLEY winters that makes this winter of 2005 seem like a PICNIC in comparison.

[tynan19]

I just want to know how this house is still there?

[spence]

A very solid foundation

-spence

[RIROCKHOUND]

Raven,
I'm curious where you got your numbers from... 10ft is a big sea level rise, the IPCC high estimate is ~1m/100yrs so thats 3 ft by 2100, concievable 10ft by 23oo, I'm not doubting, I'm just curious what time scale your talking..

Also the way I understand it is that when the ice caps melt, sea level will rise, as thats where the water tends to go, but I'm not really sure that I've ever seen evidence that this increases the frequency/intensity of weather events (a la Day after Tommorow) Some arguments are made that increased temperature will increase the intensity of storms, but not the extra water.. again thats what I know, I'm curious on a source, I'd like to read it for my own personal edification

Jenn, whats different the last 150 years or so is burning fossel fuels for energy and releasing CO2 in the atmosphere... so that argument points more towards our impact... maybe thats what your where hinting at...

As far as the problem being around for a while, I stated in my first post that GWB didnt ratify this, but it's not all his fault, this has been going on for a long time... Conspirancy theory people argue that Detroit has had the technology to make practical Hydrogen cars since the 70's... it sort of makes sense... we could make bombs out of it in the 40's....

This is turning into a good thread... not really political, but fun..


Oh and Bart, Anytime I can help man if you get stuck shoot me an email....

Bryan

[Raven]

cover an extremely wide range of reading ....from emerging technologies via the net to tv specials on climate and reading books on history.... so that i cannot just pull a reference out of the air... but i already surmised that someone would challenge that 1 degree is equal to a ten foot rise in ocean height as i wrote it and will endeavor to locate the people who first made that estimation..... i was watching a program yesterday about these ice drillers that are taking core samples that are 150,000 years old and can be read (very similar to tree rings) on climate changes.

as far as fresh water...i read that it tends to stay on top of the ocean as a layer because of the reduced salinity and is therefore subject to increased evaporation and adds to the earths rain....system.

people think of deforestation of the planet as being the biggest threat to our ecology(gases) when in reality its the plankton in the earths oceans covering 3/4's of the planet that provide the majority of the oxygen.

satelite imagery is changing the way we look and measure
whats actually happening in the earths Oceans and how productive they are.... for example here's an interesting article on ( optical backscattering http://wwwnl.technologyreview.com/t?ctl=BA2E68:2ED7E87

[Raven]

The oceans are the roach motel of global warming. In the case of the oceans, it is heat which checks in but doesn't check out. Water has an extraordinary heat capacity. In other words, it holds heat better than almost anything else. That means that when the oceans warm, they lose that heat only slowly and reluctantly. Ocean heat stays around for a long time. And most of the heat from global warming -- about 90% -- goes into the oceans.

source: http://members.dcn.org/dorritie/now.html

[RIROCKHOUND]

Thats interesting, I was aware of the effect of freshwater supposedly slowing or shutting down the heat pump of the ocean by basically stopping the gulf stream...

As far as the ice cores, pick up a book called 2mile time machine by Richard Alley... great read on the Greenland Ice core project, and yes it is an annual record like tree rings...

There are some interesting ideas you brought up, I wasnt aware of a bunch of them and will require further review
I like this thread

[spence]

I've read similar predictions that the temp rise will dramatically increase precip in northern lattitudes. Now where was that...

-spence

[Tburg]

Anybody see the movie Day After Tommorow?
Rented it a few weeks back. Was alright, a little out there made you think WHAT IF....

[RIROCKHOUND]

I think that movie was good in that it made people think... and bad in that it made people think that it could happen like that...

I do like dennis quade though, he's a good everyguy actor like Bruce Willis etc... I can do without Ahnold, Stalone etc..

[spence]

It is quite ironic that the Pentagon came out with some deadly serious predictions as to what global warming could really do to impact our quality of life...at about the same time

-spence

[Newboater]

The earth is and has been heated by the sun. Reflective heating exists and has existed for all time.

In the summer you climb into a dark car and its like an oven. A lighter color car a little less.

Now, drive around and check out all the huge shopping malls that have sprung up in the last 40 - 50 years.

Where there used to be huge tracs of open land with trees and grass with land that could absorb the rain that fell and put it into wells and underground streams there is now acres and acres of not only buildings over that land but huge parking lots keeping the earth from absorbing the rain and cooling things down.

Those humungous parking lots, all nice black tar to absorb the heat and pass it back up into the air aren't helping either. Walk across a field in your bare feet and then walk across a parking lot barefooted. I doubt it.

Where does all that heat produced by the black parking lots go? Heat rises! No, it's not going to happen in a week but over a period of 20, 30, 40 years, all that extra heat produced has to have an effect on the atmosphere.

Just a thought

Sarge

[Navy Chief]

RIROCKHOUND

Doesn't that Cape Hattaras photo just show the normal motion of barrier islands and offshore currents ? Isn't that normal coastal geology and has nothing to do with global warming ?

[RIROCKHOUND]

NC..
I mentioned breifly what I felt about the previously...

Yes, on the shorter term less than a 100yrs, sea level does not drive coastal erosion... there are many geologists who think it does, but I am in the camp that believes erosion is storm driven... on the scale of 500-1000's of years sea level does determine where the shoreline will be, but as it effects on structures is minimal... heres why I think that

Take the SE New England coast for example; sea level at the Newport Tide gauge has risen about 2.7mm/yr since it was installed, with some wiggle here and there. This ammounts to about about 27cm of sea level rise/100 years... that means that if you built a house on the Charlestown Barrier after the Hurricane of 1938, your house is ~65 years old. Sea level has risen ~7" since then... Your averave storm surge on the Sshore in '38 was ~15ft give or take... 6" is chump change on that...

Short term erosion on the coast is driven by storms, tropical and extra tropical (NE'ers), and are generally based on these factors
(Hayes and Boothroyd, 1969)
1. Storm intensity
2. Storm track (east or west of location)
3. Stage of the tide (spring/neap)
4. Storm Duration (Often why SE'ers are more erosive than thier cousin the hurricane... they often last for many tide cycles, a hurricane is generally 1 tide cycle)
5. Time between storms


Where sea level rise has come into play is that houses built, even to code, that were high enough when constructed to allow the 100yr storm surge to pass under them are now not high enough to accomidate this surge... This is true for many structures...

Sea level also dictates where on the shelf the shoreline (barriers) will be, which is also dictated by the topography of the land behind the shoreline...

Bottom line, the beach will always be there, just not where you want it to be..


And Newboater.. that argument has been made and probably has some validity, but I think the amt of energy of the oceans far eclipses that of the effect of black top, but I still think it doesn't help matters much....

[bart]

bryan-- i sent you an email. thanks man.

[RIROCKHOUND]

back at ya

[RIJIMMY]

for spence, from CNN -
%$%$%$%$ said he knows that some allies think that his only concern is national security, and he said that national security is at the top of his agenda. Yet, he said, "We also care about hunger and disease. We care about the climate."

Many allies are upset with the United States for refusing to approve the Kyoto climate treaty.

"They thought the treaty made sense," %$%$%$%$ said. "I didn't." He noted that the Senate had voted 95-0 against the treaty. Yet, %$%$%$%$ said there were other ways to deal with the problem of global warming and that he would talk with allies about new technologies to deal with the issue.

[spence]

Originally posted by RIJIMMY
[B]for spence, from CNN -
%$%$%$%$ said he knows that some allies think that his only concern is national security, and he said that national security is at the top of his agenda. Yet, he said, "We also care about hunger and disease. We care about the climate."

If Buhs had a track record of caring for hunger and disease I would think differently...but the simple facts are what He says and what He does are completely different.

Remember K3rry during the campaign? "this is the most say one thing and do another administration..."

They do a brilliant job of talking a moderate line, then walking in the other direction. Most people really don't pay attention, if the media reports it they are ridiculed as a liberal conspiracy.

Many allies are upset with the United States for refusing to approve the Kyoto climate treaty.

"They thought the treaty made sense," %$%$%$%$ said. "I didn't." He noted that the Senate had voted 95-0 against the treaty. Yet, %$%$%$%$ said there were other ways to deal with the problem of global warming and that he would talk with allies about new technologies to deal with the issue.

This is the same line He gave to the World 4 years ago. The Administration said they didn't agree with Kyoto and that they would provide a counter proposal we would agree to. It never happened, in fact they kept claiming we just needed to study the issue more...delay...delay...delay...now we're getting the same story all over

I'm not saying Kyoto is a great proposal, but we need to engage with the World and provide some leadership. Doing so would require admitting there may be a problem, and this is the problem.

Americans need to come to Jesus on the environment. We have an extremely good lifestyle, but it comes at a cost. The rise of other industrialized nations like China and India will only put more pressure on the system.

Some (like Rush Limbaugh) would like you to believe that anyone who's environmentaly friendly is anti-capitolisim. By Buhs's behavior I'd have to say the Administration shares this opinion.

Again, this isn't partisan Buhs bashing...it's a pragmatic look at our economy and what's really happened the past 4 years.

-spence

[RIJIMMY]

i just wanted you to see that ALL of Congress voted against the treaty

[spence]

Context is very important here. Buhs is referring to a Senate vote that took place nearly 9 years ago

Today there is stronger support, and even John McCain (R) is a proponent of Congressional action.

The message isn't even really that the US should just sign up to Kyoto, but that we should enter the International dialog surrounding climate change.

The most powerful nation on the planet shouldn't be ignoring what's clearly a Global problem. It's called "pluralisim", something that most right-wingers are deathly afraid of.

-spence

[Raven]

I agree with you and think paving over the ground with Tar everywhere has to eventually contribute excess heat...
and its not just parking lots but every highway and street in america and in every country on earth including all the "MASS" incorporated within buildings as well. It always amazes me when doing remodeling how little insulation was used in the walls of many older houses and allot of the times there simply isnt any which creates massive heating fuel consumption and subsequent heat loss from those homes.

right now scientists have created insulation thats super thin yet insulates as well as three feet of fiberglass insulation.

but like the automotive industry...it isnt going to be for sale any time soon...same as the car that gets 200 miles per gallon of fuel.

i heard today that one of the biggest super malls is going to expanded to twice its size in minnesota...at a cost of 1.8 billion dollars or something like that..... its insane......

[Flaptail]

I wonder what it would have been like, the debates and stuff, if the technology we have and the scientists we have now were around at the start of the ice age? "It's getting colder each year, the Mammoth's are dying and the saber tooth tigers are too" It is not getting colder it's your imagination" Oh yeah it's getting colder and it's all President Krag's fault that no good neanderthal!"

[BigBo]

Why is it the US's responsibility to clean the environment? The US is at the forefront in working towards a cleaner environment on all fronts. We have the technology and resources and have made more steps to controlling pollution than any other country. Countries like China and India (asmentioned) and especially third world countries are the ones not doing their part to take the proper steps towards a cleaner environment. Many have no regulations at all regarding automotive emissions, water pollution, factory emissions, refuse management, etc, etc, etc.
I've traveled all around the world and seen much of it first hand in both third world and industrialized countries.

[spence]

It's everyone's responsibility. A little leadership goes a long way...

I suppose I should stop mowing my lawn because my neighbor didn't.

-spence

[afterhours]

everything turns into a bash fest with some

[BigBo]

It's everyone's responsibility. A little leadership goes a long way...

If the US is at the forefront in this issue, isn't that leadership?