Danny Prediction Thread

[Joe]

I like the concept of the "Cone of Uncertainty."

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by Joe

I like the concept of the "Cone of Uncertainty."

It's also known as the cone of "we don't really have a %$%$%$%$ing clue even with the gazillion dollars worth of instruments we have"

All last week it was gale force winds on the Cape as Bill passed out to sea--and the freaking leaves on my trees weren't even rustling when it did pass.

[striperman36]

Saturday: E wind 14 to 19 kt becoming NE 22 to 27 kt in the afternoon. Showers likely. The rain could be heavy at times. Seas 4 to 5 ft.

Saturday Night: N wind 33 to 38 kt becoming variable and less than 5 kt after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 49 kt. Showers likely. Seas around 4 ft.

[Crafty Angler]

Hmmm...the CraftyCast on this one has been updated as of 1 AM EST...

Current indications are that Danny will develop into a Two Bottle Gale by Saturday afternoon across most of Southeastern New England.

Hurricane Expert Mike P is predicting landfall in the Cape Cod area, hitting the Sagamore Bridge dead on the nuts late Saturday afternoon...however, the Cone of Uncertainty includes a broad area from Joe Lyons house to the west over to Karl F's counter at the liquor store to the east, where pre-storm predictions call for a customer surge 4 to 6 feet deep...

Hey, I'm ready for it...got a new roof put on the house 2 weeks ago, a basement full of hootch, 2 spare D batteries and a can of Sterno...so I'm still all set from the hurricane preparedness drill for Hurricane Bill...

[Karl F]

the "cone of uncertainty" prevails most deeply in the store, especially in the wine dept. ....
"which one should I choose?"...
i think that is the "cone's" residence..

party on... Hurricane Party, that is...

[likwid]

A little easting in Danny this AM.
Good for us. Bad for Nova Scotia.


I suggest a 2000 Apollonio Copertino Divoto Riserva. A+ red

[JohnR]

One of the local weathermissers was stating he thought it would shift a little west. Good to see the track indicating more easterly.

[striperman36]

A little to the east

[Nebe]

I predict that it is looking to trade yugio cards with everyone in new england..

[spinncognito]

Copied from the Hurricane Center...

Danny has become a little better organized this morning. The
low-level circulation looks better defined than it did yesterday...
and the convection is closer to the center. That being said...the
center is still exposed...the convection has more of a linear
character than the curved bands characteristic of a tropical
cyclone...and the strongest winds are still well removed from the
center. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt pending the next
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter mission at 18z...although recent
Quikscat data suggests this could be a little generous.

The exposed low-level center has been moving almost due westward for
the past few hours. It is unclear if this is representative of the
actual motion of Danny or a short-term trend. So...the initial
motion is an uncertain 310/11. Despite the problematic initial
motion...the track guidance models are in excellent agreement that
Danny should turn northward over the next 24-36 hr in advance of a
complex deep-layer trough moving into the eastern United States.
After that...the storm should accelerate northeastward into the
westerlies...passing near or over New England and the Canadian
Maritimes on its way into the North Atlantic. The
NAM...NOGAPS...and Canadian models are on the left side of the
guidance envelope... calling for the center to pass near Cape
Hatteras and then over New England. The GFS...GFDL...and HWRF are
on the right side...calling for the center to stay offshore until
it reaches Nova Scotia. The new forecast track is adjusted to the
left of the previous track for the first 48 hr based on the initial
position and motion...and it lies down the middle of the guidance
envelope. While the forecast track does not currently show Danny
making landfall in the United States...additional motion to the
left of the track could bring the center near or over the U. S.
Eastern Seaboard.
Danny is currently in an area of upper-level confluent flow
associated with the persistent cyclonic shear axis seen in water
vapor imagery. The large-scale models forecast this feature to be
replaced by an upper-level anticyclone during the next 24-30 hr...
and if this verifies it will give Danny its best chance to
strengthen. Based on this...the intensity forecast calls for Danny
to strengthen during the 24-48 hr period...with a peak intensity of
65 kt. The guidance agrees that Danny should start losing tropical
characteristics and intensity after 48 hr as it becomes embedded in
a strong baroclinic environment. Overall...the intensity forecast
is in best agreement with the intensity consensus...with the peak
intensity below that of the HWRF and GFDL models.

[Jenn]

Originally Posted by Mike P

I dunno--the westernmost projected track would have it just brushing Hatteras. Hurricanes don't lose a lot of strength by just brushing the coast. It'll have plenty of time to regain strength over the Gulf Stream on its way up from there.

I can see the eye of this thing tracking right up the Canal.

Sorry Mike....I was just being a wisebutt. I thought the smiley gave it away. I always like that prediction because I will be right AT LEAST some of the time! haha!

[Fish_Eye]

Here's the latest from CDC and CT Health Dept.

[Typhoon]

Great read here:

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index....=204569&st=460

It's a forum for meteorologists... some of this stuff is way over my head where they're analyzing convection from satelite photos. From the reading I'm doing here they're saying a more westerly track, while the weatherpeople on the Boston stations are saying a more easterly track.

[likwid]

TS conditions forecasted for Saturday from LI to NH.

[OLD GOAT]

If the trees don't fall, no big deal. Small tides, fast moving, other than the sound side and buzards bay which might have trouble with the canal tunnel flooding.

[UserRemoved1]

What's a yugio card?

[RIROCKHOUND]

From Pro-Jo.com
Read the last two paragraphs... interesting after the incidents earlier this summer...

PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- It looks like we're in for a beautiful day Thursday. Enjoy it, since the weekend could be a washout, as the region could feel the impact of Tropical Storm Danny.

The temperature should reach a high near 78 degrees with a north wind of 9 mph. Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.

Wednesday night should be partly cloudy with a low of 55 degrees.

The state Emergency Management Agency warned Wednesday that Danny could bring heavy rain and coastal flooding to Rhode Island.

The weather service's National Hurricane Center reports that the center of Tropical Storm Danny has reformed about 575 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and the agency advises those living from the Carolinas to New England to monitor its progress.

It has maximum winds of 60 mph with stronger gusts and is moving northwest at 10 mph. Danny is expected to strengthen over the next couple of days and become a hurricane.

"The official forecast is shifted eastward because of the center reformation and the good track model agreement," the weather service says, adding that."any significant deviation to the west of the forecast track would bring Danny closer to the U.S. East Coast. "

As Danny makes its way up the Atlantic Coast, the Coast Guard is advising paddle and small craft owners to secure their vessels and gear. Adrift, unmanned paddle craft such as canoes and kayaks, are considered a sign of distress and could result in a false search and rescue alarm.

Mariners are also asked to secure mooring lines, life rings, life jackets and any other items that could break free and cause damage.

"We are headed for some rough weather this weekend," Al Johnson, First Coast Guard District recreational boating safety specialist, said in a prepared statement. "Securing your vessels prior to the storm could save your property and allow the Coast Guard to be more effective on the water."

For more weather and regular updates, see projo.com/weather.

[Slipknot]

Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&

What's a yugio card?

ask Danny

[UserRemoved1]

Originally Posted by Slipknot

ask Danny

[wader-dad]

I am the Cohn of uncertainty.

[striperman36]

Danny remains in an area of upper-level confluent flow associated
with the persistent cyclonic shear axis seen in water vapor
imagery. In addition...both water vapor imagery and ssm/is total
precipitable water imagery suggest that the environment near Danny
is dry. These factors...combined with the current lack of
organization...suggests that strengthening will be slow at best
during the next 24 hr.


Nothing, TS at best

[PaulS]

The next few storms are going to be named darter, floater, pencil, needlefish and spook.

[Karl F]

NEWSFLASH
After an angry call to the Hurricane center from Gibb's Lures legal dept., the name of this storm will no longer be Danny, seeing as they have the exclusive rights to use that name.
Therefore this will be TS Flat Nosed Lipped Swimmer....

[UserRemoved1]

karl I got that card ya wanna trade?

[Raven]

sounds like the Perfect storm scenario

3 storms heading our way
simultaneously

says the weatherman...

[Raven]

it's now been bumped up to a two bottle storm

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by Karl F

NEWSFLASH
After an angry call to the Hurricane center from Gibb's Lures legal dept., the name of this storm will no longer be Danny, seeing as they have the exclusive rights to use that name.
Therefore this will be TS Flat Nosed Lipped Swimmer....

For Sale, Tropical Storm ( Insert Your Name Here ) Plug Billboard Advertising

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND

RIRock's prediction sure to go wrong...

Strong tropical storm. Below Hurr. strength
Highest gust in RI will be on the Block at 50kt. Highest sustained in SoCo will be 30-40kts.
Depending on the track MV or ACK will hit 60kt gusts.

Minor shoreline erosion, 2-3ft of storm surge for one tidal cycle. Erosion will be a bit more than if this was the first storm of the season, but not drastic.

Was sure to go wrong;
Change to 20-30 sustained in RI and 40-50kt gusys on ACK and I was close
clammer got it right with 'Miss'

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND

Was sure to go wrong;
Change to 20-30 sustained in RI and 40-50kt gusys on ACK and I was close
clammer got it right with 'Miss'

It's going to be close to that, unless that trough bites a little harder and then it won't be 35kt gusts.

[Karl F]

A sharp dressed British gentleman was waiting for a lorry,
an intoxicated hobo was curled up in front of the building behind him..
a lovely lass joined the gentlemen at the lorry stop, as they were
waiting the gent muttered... "tickle your ass with a feather" rather
quickly... the lass shouted, "What did you say??"..
"Sorry Miss, I merely stated, "Typical Nasty Weather!", no insult intended!"
She seemed embarrassed, and apologized for the confusion..
the lorry came, and the gent and the lass boarded...

A few minutes later a middle aged woman arrived to wait for the next lorry..
The hobo, who was amused by the gents trick thought he would give it a try...but could not quite remember what to say...so...
He said a little too loudly.. "Shove a quill up yer ass!"
The woman was horrified and shrieked..."What did you say to me, you smelly bum?"
"Sorry lady....*hic*...
all I said was...."








"Gonna Rain!"




and that is all it's gonna do
well.. a little wind too...
i really don't think this thing is gonna strengthen going over colder waters...

and the local update:
http://www.capecodonline.com/apps/pb...WS11/908289992