Posted price: The "pump" price that fluctuates with NYMEX heating oil futures. If you are a variable price customer, usually you get a slight discount (say, a nickel a gallon) off of the variable price per gallon. If you know that prices aren't going to go up or will drop sharply, this is the way to go.
Cap price: Price goes NO HIGHER than a pre-determined price (say, $2.199/gal) throughout the season. If the "posted" or variable price drops below the cap, then your price follows the posted down accordingly. If you expect a sharp rise in heating oil prices, this is your best bet at upside protection.
Fix price: "locked in" price per gallon that says the same for the entire season. Usually, your h.o. company will obligate you to buy x number of gallons. If prices go down, you could get screwed on a fixed price contract, as you are obligated to buy x gallons at x price.
Rule of thumb for New England residents: the average New England home burns 1,100 gallons of heating oil a year, and usually gets something like 5 deliveries.
A warmer than average winter DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN PRICES WILL GO DOWN. A COLDER THAN AVERAGE WINTER VIRTUALLY GUARANTEES THAT PRICES WILL GO UP.
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