Need to do Expected value calculations on Nuke plants

[Saltheart]

It seems to me that we now have enough occurances and the cost of these nuclear accidents to start factoring in the probability of an incident and its cost into the total financial picture when making decisions on Nuke power plants.

Way back they would just say a plant will withstand the impact of a small airliner or it will withstand a level 7.7 quake , etc. Well now we have 3 mile Island , Chernobyl and Japan incidents. We can now generate probability of an accident per reactor per year , etc. Example , lets say based on the 3 incidents mentioned and their years of operation and the total nukes in the world that we can predict a 1% incident rate over the lifetime of a reactor. Lets say an incident costs 100 billion dollars. Then we need to include .01 X 100 billion = 1 billion into the captalization of a new plant. How does an extra billion up front impact the decision of Nuke vs oil vs coal vs wind power , etc.

Anyway , back in the 70's we had no real data to support prdeictions but I think now we do have the data to start putting a number into the financial calculations used to justify a nuke.

Now don't get me wrong , I have always been pro nuke in the past. I am just starting to wonder if its worth it or not , now that they have a concrete record of some level of failure rate.