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| The Scuppers This is a new forum for the not necessarily fishing related topics... |
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10-09-2008, 04:29 PM
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#1
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Old Guy
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Mansfield, MA
Posts: 8,760
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GattaFish
For the LOOOOOOOOOOOng term... 5yrs or more,,,
Better to buy for the long term now than it was to buy and hold 1 year ago..... 
Hopefully we are setting up for an incredible monday,,,, somehow I doubt it though |
maybe 1000 pts DOWN |
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10-09-2008, 04:58 PM
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#2
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Great White Scup Hunter
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In the Corner...
Posts: 2,251
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YUP
Quote:
Originally Posted by striperman36
maybe 1000 pts DOWN
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 I totally agree,,, But since no one can call the bottom and with the swings we get from day to day that may all happen in one or two sessions,,,
Lets face it there is NO guarantee that we will find support at that level,,,(7500) We are really in uncharted territory...
I am sure there are a few guys in here that have a very good idea of what we might see the next few session,,,,
And you sure as hell don't want to get your investment advise from me,,,,  |
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10-09-2008, 05:12 PM
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#3
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Wipe My Bottom
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,911
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it's hard to call a bottom when the current selling is motivated by the need to deleverage and raise liquidity.
banks aren't lending to anyone.
companies can't get other short-term financing like commercial paper, because the largest commercial paper dealer (lehman) blew up. 
on the flip side, investors in money market funds are liquidating their commercial paper holdings. because they're afraid they're not gonna get their money back. 
so, if you need to raise cash in a jiffy ... where are ya gonna do it?
da stock mahket !
look out below!
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10-09-2008, 05:42 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: RI
Posts: 21,463
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GattaFish
I am sure there are a few guys in here that have a very good idea of what we might see the next few session,,,,
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I don't think anyone really has a good fix on what's going to happen.
I'm a very conservative investor. My 401K has been pounded but I'm also a long way from retirement. Mutual funds are hit, but again it's all long term. My son's 529 has 15 years to recover.
Only worry is my money market, which currently has a lot in it, but it's all with Vanguard and if it ain't safe there I'm stocking up on tuna fish and bottled water 
-spence |
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10-09-2008, 06:01 PM
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#5
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Old Guy
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Mansfield, MA
Posts: 8,760
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we are all a lonnngggg way from living in retirement like our parents do/did, all that encouragement to invest in you r401K has now gone poo poo world wide
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10-09-2008, 06:12 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: RI
Posts: 21,463
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Quote:
Originally Posted by striperman36
we are all a lonnngggg way from living in retirement like our parents do/did, all that encouragement to invest in you r401K has now gone poo poo world wide
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Who the hell really knows?
There could (and some would argue must) be another innovative revolution like we had in the 90's that drives everything sky high. Then I'd be older and would adjust my allocations...
-spence |
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10-09-2008, 07:19 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Libtardia
Posts: 21,691
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spence
There could (and some would argue must) be another innovative revolution like we had in the 90's that drives everything sky high. Then I'd be older and would adjust my allocations...
-spence
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The writing is on the wall as to what that is.... alternative energy. |
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10-09-2008, 07:39 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Lakeville,Ma
Posts: 203
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Spence,
Yesterday fidelity and vanguard got permission to have their money market funds fully insured by the FED..just like the banks..you're O.K.
Sleep well!!
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10-09-2008, 06:15 PM
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#9
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Great White Scup Hunter
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In the Corner...
Posts: 2,251
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spence
I don't think anyone really has a good fix on what's going to happen.
I'm a very conservative investor. My 401K has been pounded but I'm also a long way from retirement. Mutual funds are hit, but again it's all long term. My son's 529 has 15 years to recover.
Only worry is my money market, which currently has a lot in it, but it's all with Vanguard and if it ain't safe there I'm stocking up on tuna fish and bottled water
-spence |
Yup no one knows,,, but there are a few talented guys that are able to make VERY accurate educated guesses.
Same boat,,, Fairly conservative.. YES it is all long term.... Long way to go too. Single so I still take a few risks. 
Same with the money market because of limiting exposure and have seen a decline in my Mutual funds. I have a few Laddered CD's so I can still feed my addiction to fishing and buying plugs if the market closes... 
Honestly I see serious trouble in the market and think any bounce will be temporary but the world is not without risk.
FPP has just about spelled out the market in a nutshell,, either way I think we are all going to be eating schoolies next spring whether we like it or not. |
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10-09-2008, 06:31 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: RI
Posts: 21,463
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Good you're into CD ladders, I think that's a smart move for anyone who can't tolerate more risk.
-spence
Last edited by spence; 10-09-2008 at 06:49 PM..
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10-09-2008, 08:02 PM
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#11
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Wipe My Bottom
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,911
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spence
Good you're into CD ladders, I think that's a smart move for anyone who can't tolerate more risk.
-spence
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spence,
1. you're not getting any real return after inflation, the true handle of which is 9% or more.
2. your money is tied up with a bank that might go belly-up. not because of sub-prime, but because of global illiquidity and panic runs on the deposit base.
3. the FDIC deposit insurance reserves (~$55 billion) are being rapidly depleted as we speak. indy mac's failure alone was originally supposed to cost $4-$6 billion of reserve money, that figure has shot up to $9 billion (might even be more). just for one thrift. there are others that are blowing up and require attention.
4. the recently passed TARP act increased FDIC deposit insurance. but banks aren't paying increased contributions to the FDIC insurance reserve. this will aggravate #3.
the safest asset right now is the hardest of the hard assets. physical gold, preferably stored safely outside of the u.s. |
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10-09-2008, 08:05 PM
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#12
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BigFish Bait Co.
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hanover
Posts: 23,392
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Why do I sense this is just the tip of the ice berg??? Recession??? If this ain't one......I don't want to see one! Depression???? Oh boy!  |
Almost time to get our fish on!!! 
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10-10-2008, 02:24 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: RI
Posts: 21,463
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fishpoopoo
spence,
1. you're not getting any real return after inflation, the true handle of which is 9% or more.
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Probably true, but I'm certainly not out to maxamize my return but keep things simple. I agree there's a chance banks could flounder, but I'm hoping for the best.
-spence |
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10-10-2008, 07:23 AM
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#14
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Permanently Disconnected
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 12,647
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hang onto your hats it's gonna be another rough day
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10-09-2008, 06:32 PM
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#15
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Old Guy
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Mansfield, MA
Posts: 8,760
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all I know is it aint good and it aint over
iceland is in serious shape, dragging the EU with it
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