The stimulus is working!

[spence]

Originally Posted by fishbones

Spence, you'll have to show me the economists that are claiming it's getting better. I haven't seen too many saying that.

It's not really reasonable to claim that things are getting better as more and more people are becoming jobless. In fact, I've actually read that the economy has still not bottomed out yet. I'm certainly no expert, but I would think that raising taxes and not creating jobs isn't the best Rx for the economy right now.

I don't think anyone would expect the unemployment situation to precede business growth for two reasons:

1) Companies are not going to increase payroll until they can afford to, and believe they have enough stability to make a longer term investment in training etc...

2) Cash flow stress demands that companies streamline their business and processes allowing them to do more with less. Those that survive will have an increased ability to grow revenues with a smaller workforce. In other words, they don't need to hire back as quickly. The hiring will come as the business expands which may take more time.

Nearly every article I've read in the past 30 days has said many economic statistics from housing to cars appear to have bottomed out, that the economy should show growth later this year.

A recent [June 19th, 2009] Reuters poll finds economists predict an average of 0.4% GDP growth in the U.S. in the third quarter and 1.6% growth in the fourth.

If true this would mean the recession technically would end Q1, 2010 even though unemployment would still be high.

That's not to say that unemployment will rebound as rapidly. Most from what I've also read agree that rising unemployment will be a problem well into 2010, and that this will put a drag on economic progress.

-spence