Smoke this!

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Originally Posted by numbskull

Now jmac, you seem like a reasonable guy so maybe you can help me (particularly since I can never find the actual data I want on the ASMFC site).

Lets just talk recreational catch.

Landings in poundage are roughly steady.
Landings in numbers of fish is down 2/3.
More people are fishing per your estimate (on which I agree)
Natural mortality is up (Mycobacteria/seals etc)
Reproductive success is down.
Inshore population is down (for whatever reason).

SO if recs are only catching 1/3 the fish they used to (as the CCT reporter says....I can't find his source but it fits with what I see), but poundage is steady, those fish have to be bigger....a lot bigger. That means 1 or 2 good year classes are getting hammered and will keep getting hammered if nothing changes.

SO, as those fish get wiped out and don't get a chance to create some more good year classes my question to you is......."What size fish do you expect to be catching 10 years from now and how many will there be?" Please remember, it takes a long time to make a 40lber and it takes ALOT of fish to get one if you kill 1/3 of the year class every year along the way.

If you can show me the answer to that question on the ASMFC site, I would be much comforted. Thanks.

Very good. Well put. I realize you are speaking to rec catches. I would like to add I believe that SB by catch by trawlers is completely over looked on purpose by the ASMFC and you may not agree with this but there has been a a greater ancedotal catch of SB in cod country. Simply put the big bass are going offshore. I saw a video of a haulback on a legal foreign trawler here... bass by catch was ugly

I think I am in agreement with you that the ASFMC is que$tionable