Stock Assessments

[Sea Flat]

Originally Posted by Sea Dangles

Who is it that makes these assessments and how much credibility have they proven they deserve.How accurate have stock assessments historically been?

I know that one way they get a good handle on the population is the "young of the Year" index. They take a net and sweep it through the spawning area and see how many baby bass are in it. In normal years, I believe the number is somewhere in the 3-4 range which many would consider to be a bit too small. That number means 3-4 baby fish within a certain area. In the late 90's or very early 2000's the number went up to the low teens and then a few years later the fishing was as good as it had been in many years. Now, the YOY index numbers are much lower and the fishing is declining too. I wish I had the book I got this from handy so I could be 100% accurate, but I truly believe that this one method is pretty good at letting us know how we are doing in terms of the fishery.

Obviously a catch count would help too which to me is impossible to count considering the recreational fishermen, bycatch and any black market sales. No way to track those numbers of dead/caught fish. All I know is that the MA commercial fleet did not even come close to their quota last year which should be a huge red flag that things are taking a turn for the worse.

Legislation is in the works to lower the amount of fish allowed to be caught to sustain the fishery. Hopefully it happens soon. I think the changes can be made to maintain a good fishery and avoid a massive decline like the 80's.

[JohnR]

The stock assessment - however flawed - is one of the key criteria that is used to determine the health of the fishery. It is loosely consistent data accumulated over the years from many different sources that attempts to paint a picture of the health of the stocks for fisheries management.

Is it accurate? Most likely not. But it is something that has been charted over the years to indicate the state of the stock.

Trying to break down the stock by year classes, gender, who's catching what and where, that assessment is the one big thing that triggers who can keep how many and from where, whether commercial landings, estimated impact by kept fish and guestimated mortality by us even doing C&R.

Many of us for years have wanted to err on the side of caution (maintain 1 recreational fish @ 36 for example) and have gone to meetings to fight commercial increases (recent fall 2010 for example, Mass commercial increase in 2006 as another example). Some people propose Game Fish status (I am not one even though I don't fish commercially, I think everyone should take cuts).

The stock assessment, how good or bad the assessment or how good or bad the results, is probably the key indicator of the state of the fishery. At least in regards to what will come down by way of regulations / regulation changes.

For a real significant brain cramp, read this novel explanation on stock assessments: http://www.asmfc.org/publications/Gu...ssessments.pdf

[MAKAI]

Do you really need the nitwits on TV standing out in the blizzard to tell you it's snowing outside.
Look around and let your eyes tell you what's up.

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by MAKAI

Do you really need the nitwits on TV standing out in the blizzard to tell you it's snowing outside.
Look around and let your eyes tell you what's up.

Yoo talkin' to me?

No, I don't need those nitwits to tell me its snowing, but I do need a stock assessment to tell show the nitwits managerial concerns influenced managers in fisheries management that the problem we've stated is happening is now being documented.

Striper Cup isn't the problem. It is one itsy bitsy, teentweeny concerning thread in a whole bigazzed cloth of problems.

[Clammer]

What I do know for a fact ...... that they wanted to increase the commercial / based on the current stock ::: that was LAST year .Ha HA

then they said was status quo ; So everything will stay the same /both commercial & rec .

wam / bam .. TU thunder Gods . all of a sudden ................... they decide its time to clamp down on the illegal netting in Maryland .......which they knew about for years /
At approx. the same time / they addressed the draggers .slamming the breeders off Virginia .......which has been going on since they were found / add the XL charter & rec fleet that is also hitting the same pot of gold .
But it should be of no surprize / think about who is doing it & have been doing it for years ......
Its the saltwater verson on running moonshine .................................. everyone in all levels of the state & some nationial were aware of it ..... but @ the right price ... just drive a different road .
Now jump to 2011 .......... OHHHHHHHHHH we might have F $%^&*( up ...... S T R I P E R S are in trouble ;; up & down the east coast ................no #^&#^&#^&#^& ya #$%^&* #$%^&*(

Monday RI had a meeting to look into / listen to & down the road /shortly make a change in the level of fines & penalities for violation of one that is Stripers fishing .
It will include / fishing without a license / both r & c
undersize both r & c
over your limit both R & C
illegal harvesting both r & C
Illegal selling both in & out of state // both r & c

any finally . there will be a coast wide change in both fisheries / From Maine to the Carolina,s BY 2012 .

Better late than never ;

Now if they would only [MAKE] the farmers [not ask] to clean up their #^&#^&#^&#^& / on all sides of the Chessapeak ;;

Lets hope we never get to the day .... when we tell our war stories // they start off {{ son back in the day / when there was a awesome fish called a STRIPER }


:f ishin:

[Mike P]

As flawed as it may be, the Maryland YOY index has been used as one of the prime stock assessment tools to manage the fishery for a long time. The data didn't lie in the mid to late 70s, when there were a series of very poor recruitment indices---under 2.0. That's why the fishery crashed in the early 80s. People started seeing a predominance of bigger fish in the late 70s, and very few schoolies in their usual haunts. Within 5 years, some people were lucky to catch 5 bass a year. The managers didn't put any meaningful catch restrictions in place when there was a chance to do something about it, during the period of very poor YOY indices. And in fact, ASMFC didn't even exist--there was no coastwide management authority, and individual states were unwilling to take action. Massachusetts's idea of "conservation" was replacing an unlimited bag/16" fork length reg with a 4 fish per day at 16" and unlimited 24" reg.

The moratorium and the 36" limit were put into place to protect a moderately successful year class. I think it was 1982's year class. That year's YOY index was around 8.0, as I recall. We started seeing bass come back in decent numbers by 1986/1987. By 1989, the YOY index jumped up to 26.0 or better, and that one year's YOY index was used as justification to lift the moratorium and lower size limits.

We've now had about 4 consecutive mediocre YOY indices from Maryland. If ASMFC is serious about a 40% across the board mortality reduction, that should keep us from the brink. I would hope that they would be pro-active about it, and not wait until a crisis happens. The striped bass recovery is one of the Feds' very few fisheries management success stories, and for political reasons alone, one would think that they'd not want to #^&#^&#^&#^& it up.

As far as the overall stock's health--at the bottom, in the early 80s, they estimated the coastwide biomass at 6 million fish. While we may be down from the estimated 50 million fish of a few years ago, the assessments that I've seen still place the overall biomass at over 30 million fish. There may be more to why we're not seeing as many inshore as we did in the recent past years--climate changes bringing warmer offshoots from the Gulf Stream into coastal waters, lack of bait, and so on. Every year you hear reports from tuna guys about how there are so damn many bass out in the EEZ that they can't avoid them.

But there is no doubt that we're on a downward cycle, and changes have to be made across the board. Reduction of the Mass commercial quota by 40% by reducing the quota from 1.1 million pounds to around 600,000 pounds, and amending the rec regs. If you want to keep the same commercial season, reduce the daily bag limit to 15 from 30, and eliminate the Sunday fishery. With this year's gas prices, it won't be worth leaving the dock on Sunday anyway. Either go with a slot limit, or raise the size limit to 34" for both recs and comms. And, one fish a day. 2 fish @ 28" was the worst thing that ever happened to the bass, IMO.

[Pt.JudeJoe]

Hey man I just had an idea.... Every 5 years heave a moratorium on striped bass. No bass taken at all every 5 th year. Now go play nice.

[MAKAI]

[QUOTE=Mike P;
As far as the overall stock's health--at the bottom, in the early 80s, they estimated the coastwide biomass at 6 million fish. While we may be down from the estimated 50 million fish of a few years ago, the assessments that I've seen still place the overall biomass at over 30 million fish.

But and a BIG BUT as I've said before, It now takes 3 times the spawning biomass to produce the same YOY as it did 20 yrs ago.
For a myriad of reasons I'm sure.
The cynic in me thinks this issue is beyond fishermen alone to affect.

[MAKAI]

Originally Posted by JohnR

Yoo talkin' to me?

No, I don't need those nitwits to tell me its snowing, but I do need a stock assessment to tell show the nitwits managerial concerns influenced managers in fisheries management that the problem we've stated is happening is now being documented.

Striper Cup isn't the problem. It is one itsy bitsy, teentweeny concerning thread in a whole bigazzed cloth of problems.

Not at all.
I feel that while waiting for the " proof " of science, we lag behind the facts of life. Gotta make sure our long term data is right.

Kinda of like me saying, " Hey John ! Your house is on fire. "
" No, It's not too bad, let's see what happens, it may go out. " A little time goes by, " Holy $*%# I gotta call the Fire Dept !!

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme " Mark Twain.

We have to have a beer or two sometime.