Irene's track predictions

[numbskull]

Here is a link Hurricane Irene : Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground

[OLD GOAT]

Thank you George. Hope you can dogpaddle with your booboo.

PS Get well soon

[PaulS]

some of those predictions are going right over my house.

[Mike P]

They haven't updated them since 8 AM this morning. I've been waiting for the 2 PM models, because some say they're shifted a tick or two to the east. I know it says 2 PM update on the header, but if you look at the individual models as they appear as I type this, they all read 8 AM.

[MikeD]

The sea was angry that day my friends, like an old man trying to return soup at a deli.

Tropical Floater Two Rainbow Imagery - Satellite Services Division

[1dozenraw]

Originally Posted by Mike P

They haven't updated them since 8 AM this morning. I've been waiting for the 2 PM models, because some say they're shifted a tick or two to the east. I know it says 2 PM update on the header, but if you look at the individual models as they appear as I type this, they all read 8 AM.

Here's 2pm. Next one is 5pm I think.

Hurricane IRENE

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by 1dozenraw

Here's 2pm. Next one is 5pm I think.

Hurricane IRENE

Yeah, I've seen the 2 PM NHC forecast. But Weather Underground has a chart showing all of the various computer models (which have been all over the place), and none of the individual models on there have been updated since 8 AM, even though the chart itself is the 2 PM chart.

[1dozenraw]

This looks like it has later updates...

Hurricane Spaghetti Models / Spaghetti Charts / Tropical Forecast / Hurricane Charts Models / Tropical Update

and this is interesting...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-tim...atest72hrs.gif

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by 1dozenraw

This looks like it has later updates...

Hurricane Spaghetti Models / Spaghetti Charts / Tropical Forecast / Hurricane Charts Models / Tropical Update

Yeah, and when one of them has it not making landfall at all but hanging a 90 degree right turn out towards Cape Verde, and another has it going inland almost to #^&#^&#^&#^&ing Buffalo and hanging a right, you kind of wonder who's doing those models.

[1dozenraw]

I really only look at the NOAA site consistently. I figure they have access to all the existing models and use them to come up with the most likely track and the surrounding cone.

When I owned my two sailboats during the 1990s and early 2000s, I really kept an eye on tracks and the NOAA site was as accurate as any and much simpler to sort out. This time of year until October was always a bit tricky. My guess is that we (SoCo0 are going to get a storm... but nothing extraordinary. Some power outages... but the BIG HIT is going to be 100s of miles of coast from North Carolina to NY. The shoreline is definitely going to get some alterations.

[MakoMike]

Latest consensus has it making landfall and heading inland in the NYC area.