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Here's what I found:
The Patriots can actually earn the No. 1 seed this week. All they need to do is beat the Miami Dolphins, and hope that the Ravens lose to the Cleveland Browns and the Steelers lose to the St. Louis Rams.
If that doesn't work, the Patriots only need to beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 17 to clinch the No. 1 seed.
If the Patriots lose either one of their final two games, they stand to lose the No. 1 seed to the Ravens due to a strength of victory tiebreaker if both teams finish 12-4. If the Steelers finish 12-4 and win the AFC North, they'll have the edge over the Patriots because they beat them earlier this season.
If the Patriots lose both of their final two games, they'll need the Texans, Ravens and Steelers to all finish 10-6. They probably shouldn't risk that.
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