why iran won't give up its nuclear program

[fishpoopoo]

1) iran won't admit it, but it's running out of oil. it really does need nuclear power to replace its dwindling crude reserves.

"As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion barrels [in reserve] is almost 100 billion barrels over any realistic assay."

-Dr. Ali Morteza samsam Bakhtiari, retired senior energy expert, Iranian Oil co.

2) iran is surrounded by not-so friendlies.

to the west, 150,000 u.s. troops in iraq. to the east, about 20,000 u.s. troops in afghanistan. to the south, two u.s. naval strike groups are deployed in the persian gulf and the arabian sea.

to iran's north is a nuclear-armed russia. to its east, a nuclear-armed pakistan. to its west, a nuclear-armed israel. to its south, nuclear-armed u.s. ships in the persian gulf.

no wonder ahmadineschmuck is paranoid.

anyone want to set up an iran war pool as to when the first shots will be fired?

[Nebe]

first shots would have been fired already if the Iraqi war hadnt turned into such a cluster %$%$%$%$..

[fishpoopoo]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz........................ .

[likwid]

Originally Posted by Bassturbed

2) iran is surrounded by not-so friendlies.

So are the troops we have in Iraq.

to the west, 150,000 u.s. troops in iraq.

too busy trying to kill an enemy they can't tell from the non-combatants.

to the east, about 20,000 u.s. troops in afghanistan.

too busy trying to kill an enemy they trained and can't find.
and don't forget, Iran hates the hell out of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda, so in the grand scheme of things, when it comes to Afghanistan, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Iran always has been.

to iran's north is a nuclear-armed russia.

which has its own problems and couldn't feasibly get involved in ANYTHING

to its east, a nuclear-armed pakistan.

which plays sides to the highest bidder, and even then still plays both sides.

to its west, a nuclear-armed israel.

which if they did anything would have probably 3/4 of the middle east coming down on them if they farted the wrong way.

Ben, I really wish it was as NASCAR simple as you put it, but it just does not work that way. You need a history brush up on some of your points, most of it is a mini cold war with mutually ensured destruction.

[fishpoopoo]

yeah likwid i glossed over those details ... but at the end of the day, Iran is in a world of $hit right now on the economic front. the geopolitical stuff is icing on the cake.

the nuclear thing was supposed to help them during the SHAH's regime (remember we set up Iran's nuke program back in the '70's).

russia has a part to play and is a very interesting twist with its vast oil wealth (it's the largest producer of oil) and encroachment of NATO on russia's front doorstep.

[likwid]

Originally Posted by Bassturbed

russia has a part to play and is a very interesting twist with its vast oil wealth (it's the largest producer of oil) and encroachment of NATO on russia's front doorstep.

So why is Russia in a panic race/panties in a bunch about us being in central Asia? Giggles? Seperation anxiety? Oil & Gas?

Yeah I think its the last option.

[fishpoopoo]

likwid, i'm having decaf this morning so you'll have to excuse me for being a little slow on the draw.

recall in 2004, NATO membership expanded to include countries that were part of the soviet union - the baltic states of latvia, lithuania, and estonia.

currently, the Bush administration is pressing to add two more to the NATO roster, Ukraine and Georgia.

Georgia's U.S. educated president is pushing aggressively to join NATO by 2008.

Putin's got his panties in a bunch over this, and in particular Georgia. In Georgia, new oil and gas pipelines are coming on line - they carry oil from the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and "Central Asia" to Europe. These lines bypass Russia altogether. (Russkies don't like the competition).

So, we could see Putin (more likely his successor) invade Georgia ... and/or step up covert efforts in "Central Asia" to disrupt energy supplies to Georgia. The latter could mean providing arms and assistance to those fighting U.S. troops in the area, etc.

[Raven]

ben drives a racecar? i didnt know that...

[basswipe]

Originally Posted by Bassturbed

likwid, i'm having decaf this morning so you'll have to excuse me for being a little slow on the draw.

Putin's got his panties in a bunch over this, and in particular Georgia. In Georgia, new oil and gas pipelines are coming on line - they carry oil from the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and "Central Asia" to Europe. These lines bypass Russia altogether. (Russkies don't like the competition).

You forgot one country involved:Armenia.

Armenia and Azerbaijan don't like one another.The dispute over Nagorno/Karabakh has never been resolved.Their dispute is long standing and goes all the way back to the genocide of the Armenian people by Turkey and that Azerbaijan being an Islamic nation particpated in that as part of the Ottoman/Turk Empire.After the Russian revolution and its annexing of Armenia and Azerbaijan and the subsequent redistribution of land,Nagorno/Karabakh be given to the Azerbaijanies,the Armenians have the proverbial stick up their ass and rightfully so.

That pipeline goes right through the Nagorno/Karabakh region and many,many Armenians still live in that region.Muslim governments don't treat their Christian citizens very well.And since the fall of the Soviet Union the Armenians have been using the pipeline as leverage in its negotiations over the region,they even fought a small war over it after the Fall.The only reason Armenians in the region haven't severed the line is because they are way to principled to commit acts of terrorism,but after almost 20 years patience will eventually be lost and money will be offered.

As far as Russia's might is concerned it took all their might to secure a tiny country like Chechnya and that security is unstable at best.Competition...Russia has no choice,they just have to accept it as they don't have the military might to prevent it.The only way they can financially prevent competition is through massive foreign investment and the US and the oil companies are investing billions upon billions since the Fall and yet we here in the States are still paying over $3 a gallon.

[striprman]

Why do they hate us ?

Because going to a rock concert and having women show their boobs is "normal".
Because of music that talks about all the drug abuse,killing and pre-marital sex is "normal".
Because pre marital sex, crime and drug use is "normal".
Because rampant drug abuse and glorification of the hip hop/drug culture is "normal".
Because 12 and 13 year olds having unprotected sex is "normal"
Because your neighbor has 2 dump trucks full of sand dumped on his lawn so the wife and her girl friends can have a beach party wearing coconut shells over their breasts and get smashed on margaritas. This is "normal".
Because a woman can get married, and 24 hours later be divorced, and this woman is a "role model" for millions of young girls, has 2 kids, gets divorced and is basicly wild, and this is "normal"
The president lies and this is "normal"
Because...we think this is "normal", and "they" don't

how many more examples do you need to see "their" point of view ? We are Satan

[spence]

Originally Posted by striprman

Because your neighbor has 2 dump trucks full of sand dumped on his lawn so the wife and her girl friends can have a beach party wearing coconut shells over their breasts and get smashed on margaritas.

If true, this would be the most fantastic thing ever to occur on the planet Earth.

We are Satan

Actually, the old Satan quote was misleading. Khomeni actually called us the "Great Shay-tan" which in Farsii means somehing like a trickster. It was in response to Western vices that flourished under the brutal US backed Shaw.

-spence

[fishpoopoo]

um ... google "temporary marriage" under islamic law.