An Unusually Warm and Wet Spring: Threat or Menace?

[Crafty Angler]

I don't know but I'm starting to get an uneasy feeling about the coming season's weather

So far we've had a 200 year flood...unbelievably warm temps for the first week in April which will result in earlier than normal ocean temps locally...and there is also a strong El Nino this year

All the vegetation and especially the perennials in our yard are weeks - if not a full month - early

I don't know what the old Indian who lives down the road from Raven is calling for, but tell him there's an old greenhorn in Newport who thinks we've got a real good shot at the Big One this year...

[JohnnyD]

I wouldn't worry about it. All this crazy weather doesn't mean anything. Everything with the climate is exactly as it has always been. Don't let things like record-breaking rain, earliest reported ice-outs or very unseasonably warm weather convince you otherwise. Then there's always the earthquakes...

However, I'll still be keeping my eye on the skies. We've been pretty lucky the last few years.

[RIJIMMY]

My kids are less than 8 years old and I have Easter pics of them running around outside with no jackets, and light clothing. Also rememeber a few years ago it was 80 degrees for the Boston Marathon which is only 2 weeks away. Moved into my house 9 years ago in April and had to pump my basement the first night in the house due to torrential rains.
I think crazy weather is just the norm.

[MarshCappa]

I just bought stock in Wonder bread!

[GattaFish]

Maybe we will see lots of bait this year since it is warm early,,,

[Sweetwater]

I'm still trying to decide which is worse, a "threat" or a "menace."

[Nebe]

Wait till that big asteroid shows up in 2012.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[BigFish]

Its not like its been raining 6 out of every 7 days! Just a couple of 3 day rain marathons.......lots of warm, sunny, dry days....so far!

[Karl F]

Originally Posted by Crafty Angler

I don't know but I'm starting to get an uneasy feeling about the coming season's weather

So far we've had a 200 year flood...unbelievably warm temps for the first week in April which will result in earlier than normal ocean temps locally...and there is also a strong El Nino this year

All the vegetation and especially the perennials in our yard are weeks - if not a full month - early

I don't know what the old Indian who lives down the road from Raven is calling for, but tell him there's an old greenhorn in Newport who thinks we've got a real good shot at the Big One this year...

I'm with you Greenhorn...last time we had a late March, early April like this...we got BOB in August...
1991

Buy your plywood for the windows now, and stock up on fresh water, and propane, and gas for the generators....
we are kinda overdue for some hurricane action i hate to say...and the ins. co.'s have jacked up the rates every year the weather forecasters say we are going to have 9 named storms...and gotten squat........so..a good shot at it indeed....

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by Crafty Angler

I don't know but I'm starting to get an uneasy feeling about the coming season's weather

So far we've had a 200 year flood...unbelievably warm temps for the first week in April which will result in earlier than normal ocean temps locally...and there is also a strong El Nino this year

All the vegetation and especially the perennials in our yard are weeks - if not a full month - early

I don't know what the old Indian who lives down the road from Raven is calling for, but tell him there's an old greenhorn in Newport who thinks we've got a real good shot at the Big One this year...

at least one, long term weather patterns with a strong El Nino' suggest the same and the tequila worms are sayin the same thing

[Crafty Angler]

Originally Posted by Sweetwater

I'm still trying to decide which is worse, a "threat" or a "menace."

...

Well, the thread title was a little tongue-in-cheek but if nothing else I'm old enough to have made a few observations lately that seem to put things out of the norm

I did see that water temps at the Castle Hill NOAA buoy are at 54 degrees today and it is a deep water location - I don't know, I think keeping a weather eye out this year will be prudent if nothing else

The current El Nino is also out of the norm, too, as follows:

Keep reading for more on the not-so-straightforward relationship between El Nino and hurricane season...

The study details a slightly different form of tropical Pacific Ocean warming that may previously have been mistaken for El Nino. This type of warming is referred to as central Pacific warming or El Nino "modiki" -- the Japanese word meaning "same, but different" -- and may actually juice up the Atlantic hurricane season. The study found that since the early 1990s, El Nino modiki events have been occurring with increasing frequency compared to traditional El Nino episodes, although the reasons for this are unclear.

A traditional El Nino event is characterized by abnormally warm water temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, as well as altered air flow across the Pacific Ocean. El Nino modiki events feature unusually warm water located further to the west, in the central Pacific near the International Date Line. Although the two events are quite similar, the authors found that the difference in location of the warmer waters can have profound ramifications for residents in hurricane-prone areas of the United States, Caribbean and Central America.

By examining correlations between the North Atlantic hurricane season, both in terms of where storms tracked and the number of storms that formed in a given year, and the different types of Pacific Ocean warming events, the researchers found that central Pacific warming is associated with increased numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes. An analysis of hurricane damages by Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado at Boulder found that U.S. storm damages were greater in El Nino modiki years than in El Nino years.

"...we cannot assume that because there is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that there will be a decrease of tropical cyclones. It depends very much on the location of the warming," said co-author Peter J. Webster in an e-mail conversation.

Previous research had shown that El Nino events tend to cause wind shear -- winds blowing at different directions and/or speeds at different altitudes -- to increase over the areas where tropical storms and hurricanes typically form in the Atlantic. Strong wind shear can prevent a tropical storm or hurricane from developing or keep it from intensifying.

However, according to the new study, central Pacific warming events do not increase wind shear over the hurricane-formation regions of the Atlantic Ocean, and therefore are more favorable for storm development.

I'll also admit that after a certain age you'll find yourself sitting on the sofa in your underwear a lot watching The Weather Channel - hey, it's what old guys do

On the other hand, when my brother in law (ex-commercial electrician and now an industrial robotics engineer) comes out to visit in May I am gonna have him help me wire in the generator for the house we've talked about for years

[chrisjoe13]

This might be the last week to do yard work without the menacing Black Fly. I'm surprised to have not seen any yet. I hate them.

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by Crafty Angler

...

Well, the thread title was a little tongue-in-cheek but if nothing else I'm old enough to have made a few observations lately that seem to put things out of the norm

I did see that water temps at the Castle Hill NOAA buoy are at 54 degrees today and it is a deep water location - I don't know, I think keeping a weather eye out this year will be prudent if nothing else

The current El Nino is also out of the norm, too, as follows:

Keep reading for more on the not-so-straightforward relationship between El Nino and hurricane season...

The study details a slightly different form of tropical Pacific Ocean warming that may previously have been mistaken for El Nino. This type of warming is referred to as central Pacific warming or El Nino "modiki" -- the Japanese word meaning "same, but different" -- and may actually juice up the Atlantic hurricane season. The study found that since the early 1990s, El Nino modiki events have been occurring with increasing frequency compared to traditional El Nino episodes, although the reasons for this are unclear.

A traditional El Nino event is characterized by abnormally warm water temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, as well as altered air flow across the Pacific Ocean. El Nino modiki events feature unusually warm water located further to the west, in the central Pacific near the International Date Line. Although the two events are quite similar, the authors found that the difference in location of the warmer waters can have profound ramifications for residents in hurricane-prone areas of the United States, Caribbean and Central America.

By examining correlations between the North Atlantic hurricane season, both in terms of where storms tracked and the number of storms that formed in a given year, and the different types of Pacific Ocean warming events, the researchers found that central Pacific warming is associated with increased numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes. An analysis of hurricane damages by Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado at Boulder found that U.S. storm damages were greater in El Nino modiki years than in El Nino years.

"...we cannot assume that because there is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that there will be a decrease of tropical cyclones. It depends very much on the location of the warming," said co-author Peter J. Webster in an e-mail conversation.

Previous research had shown that El Nino events tend to cause wind shear -- winds blowing at different directions and/or speeds at different altitudes -- to increase over the areas where tropical storms and hurricanes typically form in the Atlantic. Strong wind shear can prevent a tropical storm or hurricane from developing or keep it from intensifying.

However, according to the new study, central Pacific warming events do not increase wind shear over the hurricane-formation regions of the Atlantic Ocean, and therefore are more favorable for storm development.

I'll also admit that after a certain age you'll find yourself sitting on the sofa in your underwear a lot watching The Weather Channel - hey, it's what old guys do

On the other hand, when my brother in law (ex-commercial electrician and now an industrial robotics engineer) comes out to visit in May I am gonna have him help me wire in the generator for the house we've talked about for years

It's that plastic island in the middle of the pacific changin the weather patterns by heating up the surrounding air.

[EarnedStripes44]

I noted the same thing. The flowers are a month early. So just smell them while you can.

[Joe]

Good for the herring, yes? I would think it would make the trip back out to sea easier. I know they prefer higher water levels.

[Crafty Angler]

Originally Posted by Joe

Good for the herring, yes? I would think it would make the trip back out to sea easier. I know they prefer higher water levels.

That's what I thought, Joe - for a 1 1/2 - 2 weeks I was seeing birds on bait west of Goat Island - I kept thinking it was herring headed for the GS run...

An early warm Spring also has a big upside...