This Market...

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Nebe

I made enough day trading today to pay 3 months rent
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That doesn't happen every day, congrats!

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Can facts lie and have a political agenda?

PE was over 20 at end of 2019 while historical mean was about 16.


Based on the latest S&P 500 monthly data, the market is overvalued somewhere in the range of 87% to 155%, depending on the indicator, up from 82% to 148% the previous month.
Feb 6, 2020

I looked at a few charts, that PE ratio of 20 looks below average since 1990. Not sure ratios from 1930 - 1970 are as pertinent, but maybe they are...

https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-...earnings-chart

[Nebe]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

That doesn't happen every day, congrats!

Thanks. Hopefully I can replicate.
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[wdmso]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Right, a labor union where your "reality" consists of confiscating money from your customers whether they feel like paying you or not, guaranteed raises, and rich pensions which someone else picks up most of the tab for. Yes sir, that's "reality"

You want to talk about something irrational that's not sustainable? Watch your pension fund for the next 20 years.

You've been blinded. that corporate American will take care of their pepople , they have raped Americans and america for decades . . And unions are bad...

14% of companies had 401(k) plans for their employees

My reality and my retirement are a 401 k selfunded a union aka state retirement and a Military one... haters got to hate .
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[Ian]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Sorry, obviously the market also needs people out spending money, that's a given. That's all that's missing right now, and it's not missing because of anything that Trump or Obama did or didn't do.

My other point is that our stock market was not insanely overpriced when the DJIA was at 29,000. All you have to do, is look at the P/E ratios or any other valuation. Not saying it was undervalued, but when the DJIA was at its peak, Warren Buffet said he thought the S&P 500 was a terrific bet if you had 5-10 years time. But what does he know?

The tech bubble was irrational when it burst. The housing bubble was irrational when it burst. Our economy, in a macro sense, was not an irrational bubble waiting to burst when this hit. Anyone who says otherwise, is lying because they have a political agenda. It was a very, very strong and robust economy.

There are a number of people who believe this market has all kinds of issues...

Overvaluation
Corporate debt bubble about to burst like the private mortgage bubble did
Etc

It’s really hard to take a look at what the market has done the past 4 years and say there wasn’t an inflated nature to it. There was nothing gradual about the journey to the level we just crashed from
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[wdmso]

After Blowing $4.5 Trillion on Share Buybacks, Airlines, Boeing, Many Other Culprits Want Taxpayer & Fed Bailouts of their Shareholders
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[Nebe]

Wait for the cruise ship industry to ask for a bailout. You know... the ones who’s ships are all registered in foreign ports to evade taxes
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Nebe

Thanks. Hopefully I can replicate.
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id like to subscribe to your newsletter! give us some stock picks...
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Ian

There are a number of people who believe this market has all kinds of issues...

Overvaluation
Corporate debt bubble about to burst like the private mortgage bubble did
Etc

It’s really hard to take a look at what the market has done the past 4 years and say there wasn’t an inflated nature to it. There was nothing gradual about the journey to the level we just crashed from
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it’s not hard if you look at p/e ratios over the last 30 years. other than hating trump, i’m not sure on what basis you’d conclude that the economy was irrationally overvalued a month ago.

the crash had little to do with where we were, or how we got there. we got hit with an outside force that no one predicted.

I live in CT, a state that has been a 40 year experiment in pure, unchecked liberalism. The result? One of the richest states in the nation has unfunded debt equal
to four times annual revenue, and people are fleeing.
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[Ian]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

it’s not hard if you look at p/e ratios over the last 30 years. other than hating trump, i’m not sure on what basis you’d conclude that the economy was irrationally overvalued a month ago.

the crash had little to do with where we were, or how we got there. we got hit with an outside force that no one predicted.

I live in CT, a state that has been a 40 year experiment in pure, unchecked liberalism. The result? One of the richest states in the nation has unfunded debt equal
to four times annual revenue, and people are fleeing.
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I never said this was Trump's fault, though I think some of the policies and speculation driven by his style of leadership certainly added explosive fuel to an already out of control fire...

But I'm surprised you're picking "this market was stable as hell" as the hill to die on here...

[Nebe]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

id like to subscribe to your newsletter! give us some stock picks...
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Look for the most beaten down BEFORE the chit hit the fan. The Saudi Russia oil spat has caused a crisis in shale production, but they are still pumping (for now) and have to transport it. So.....

Pipeline stocks.

I’m not an expert but I’m no dummy either.

Trump is touting that we are buying up any excess oil and filling the strategic oil reserves which I believe can hold 300 million more barrels.

With the war powers enacted l believe he may put tariffs on imported Saudi oil to prop up shale producers or even throw up an embargo.

Do your own due diligence of course.
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Ian

I never said this was Trump's fault, though I think some of the policies and speculation driven by his style of leadership certainly added explosive fuel to an already out of control fire...

But I'm surprised you're picking "this market was stable as hell" as the hill to die on here...

our economy was rock solid
by almost any measure. i’m not dying in any hill, just stating what the data and most experts were saying. no market can survive people not being able
to spend money. consumer
spending is a key.

i don’t see this drop as any indication of economic weakness. markets were up, companies
making solid profits and growing, unemployment at historic lows, low inflation, gdp increasing, energy independence, jobs numbers crushing expectations, wages rising, where were the red flags?

I agree on trumps personal style.
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[wdmso]

Heres a question for you market guys

How is a 1000 or 1200 dollar 1 time check going to help anyone realistically. Or is this just to help the markets .

A 1000 bucks barely covers 1 months rent or 500 a car payment

Clearly something is better than nothing

But wouldnt frezzing interest and loan payment on mortages, cars, rent with out penalties help more Americans

By having those payments added to the end of their loans
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[PaulS]

Too bad everyone wasn't as smart as these 2. FYI Burr voted previously against a ban on insider trading. He also is Eben's 2nd cousin.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr, R-N.C., sold as much as $1.7 million in stocks just before the market dropped in February amid fears about the coronavirus epidemic.

Senate records show that Burr and his wife sold between roughly $600,000 and $1.7 million in more than 30 separate transactions in late January and mid-February, just before the market began to fall and as government health officials began to issue stark warnings about the effects of the virus. Several of the stocks were in companies that own hotels.

The stock sales were first reported by ProPublica and The Center for Responsive Politics. Most of them came on Feb. 13, just before Burr made a speech in Washington, D.C., in which he predicted severe consequences from the virus, including closed schools and cutbacks in company travel, according to audio obtained by National Public Radio and released Thursday.

Burr told the small North Carolina State Society audience that the virus was “much more aggressive in its transmission than anything that we have seen in recent history” and “probably more akin to the 1918 pandemic."

Burr’s remarks were much more dire than remarks he had made publicly, and came as President Donald Trump was still downplaying the severity of the virus.

There is no indication that Burr had any inside information as he sold the stocks and issued the private warnings. The intelligence panel did not have any briefings on the pandemic the week when most of the stocks were sold, according to a person familiar with the matter. The person declined to be identified to discuss confidential committee activity.

Burr said on Twitter Thursday that Americans were already being warned about the effects of the virus when he made the speech to the North Carolina State Society.

“The message I shared with my constituents is the one public health officials urged all of us to heed as coronavirus spread increased,” Burr wrote. “Be prepared.”

Burr sent out the tweets before reports of his stock sales. A spokesperson for the senator said in a statement that Burr “has been deeply concerned by the steep and sudden toll this pandemic is taking on our economy” and supports congressional efforts to help the economy. The spokesperson declined to be identified in order to share the senator’s thinking.

The North Carolina senator was not the only lawmaker to sell of stocks just before the steep decline due to the global pandemic. Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler, a new senator who is up for re-election this year, sold off hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of stock in late January, as senators began to get briefings on the virus, also according to Senate records.

In the weeks that followed, Loeffler urged her constituents to have faith in the Trump administration's efforts to prepare the nation.

“@realDonaldTrump & his administration are doing a great job working to keep Americans healthy & safe,” Loeffler tweeted Feb. 27.

The Daily Beast first reported that Loeffler dropped the stock in late January. The senator is married to Jeffrey Sprecher, the chairman and CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange.

[wdmso]

Senate Intelligence Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.) dumped between $582,029 and $1.56 million of his stocks on Feb. 13, days after writing a Fox News op-ed that said the U.S. is "better prepared than ever before" to face public health threats like the coronavirus, according to ProPublica.
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[Sea Dangles]

This seems like a smart move by this man. I would guess that most here would have done the same. This is how money is managed.
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[PaulS]

Three other senators also sold major holdings around the time Mr. Burr did, according to the disclosure records: Dianne Feinstein, Democrat of California, who is also a member of the Intelligence Committee; James M. Inhofe, Republican of Oklahoma; and Kelly Loeffler, Republican of Georgia.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by wdmso

Heres a question for you market guys

How is a 1000 or 1200 dollar 1 time check going to help anyone realistically. Or is this just to help the markets .

A 1000 bucks barely covers 1 months rent or 500 a car payment

Clearly something is better than nothing

But wouldnt frezzing interest and loan payment on mortages, cars, rent with out penalties help more Americans

By having those payments added to the end of their loans
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

because if a huge volume
of people spend that extra money, it helps the small businesses recover from the crushing lack of rev he thats pulverizing them now.

shortens the length of time it takes for businesses to recover lost revenue, which means less layoffs, and that’s a key thing.

The $1,000 doesn’t change anyone’s life. but it will help keep people employed as that money is spent and re spent.
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[wdmso]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

because if a huge volume
of people spend that extra money, it helps the small businesses recover from the crushing lack of rev he thats pulverizing them now.

shortens the length of time it takes for businesses to recover lost revenue, which means less layoffs, and that’s a key thing.

The $1,000 doesn’t change anyone’s life. but it will help keep people employed as that money is spent and re spent.
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Thats my point the seagulls will swoop in on the foreclosures of the little guy who would have been saved if his mortgage payments and interest and penalties were waved , till this was over , but he got was a 1000 bucks

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by wdmso

Thats my point the seagulls will swoop in on the foreclosures of the little guy who would have been saved if his mortgage payments and interest and penalties were waved , till this was over , but he got was a 1000 bucks

i suspect, though don’t know for sure, that banks will be willing to give people who are severely impacted by this, a few months. banks don’t foreclose when you miss a payment or two, if there’s any reasonable chance you’ll get back in your feet, it’s better and cheaper for the banks to work with you. Id bet a lot that we don’t see foreclosures like we did in 2008. Giving everyone a little money does help the bartenders in the end, not because their 1,000 saves them, but because it increases the chance that things recover quicker.


there’s also a lot more to the aid than 1,000 checks to individuals. All kinds of loans and grants to small business. that will also help. minimizing unemployment is a high priority here, and helping businesses with a short term cash crunch, will keep unemployment down.
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[Jim in CT]

i think senators who used non-public information to dump their portfolios, have some serious explaining to do.

If they relied on non public information...
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[wdmso]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

i suspect, though don’t know for sure, that banks will be willing to give people who are severely impacted by this, a few months. banks don’t foreclose when you miss a payment or two, if there’s any reasonable chance you’ll get back in your feet, it’s better and cheaper for the banks to work with you. Id bet a lot that we don’t see foreclosures like we did in 2008. Giving everyone a little money does help the bartenders in the end, not because their 1,000 saves them, but because it increases the chance that things recover quicker.


there’s also a lot more to the aid than 1,000 checks to individuals. All kinds of loans and grants to small business. that will also help. minimizing unemployment is a high priority here, and helping businesses with a short term cash crunch, will keep unemployment down.
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I have no faith that banks will defer anything.. you get 3 months behind on a mortgage plus late fees and your credit score destroyed you'll never recover even if you get back to work

[wdmso]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

i think senators who used non-public information to dump their portfolios, have some serious explaining to do.

If they relied on non public information...
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of course they did ,,, but how does anyone prove it ..


if it walks like a duck its a duck ...

[Pete F.]

This is the 1-month anniversary of the S&P record high.

Quite a month, eh?

[Sea Dangles]

Originally Posted by wdmso

of course they did ,,, but how does anyone prove it ..


if it walks like a duck its a duck ...

Some people simply get a tip from respected sources whom they trust.
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by wdmso

I have no faith that banks will defer anything.. you get 3 months behind on a mortgage plus late fees and your credit score destroyed you'll never recover even if you get back to work

we will see. obviously we both hope that people
impacted the most are given a chance to recover.

People claw their way back all the time. it’s not easy or quick, but it happens.

my hope is that the relief package provides loans to banks to allow them to be more forgiving than usual.

Saw that Amazon is hiring 100,000 new employees right away, that’s big.

like you, i’m lucky enough to not be too impacted, i can work from home. I wish everyone was as secure.
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[spence]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

my hope is that the relief package provides loans to banks to allow them to be more forgiving than usual
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Banks will likely be just as forgiving as they are legally required to be.
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by spence

Banks will likely be just as forgiving as they are legally required to be.
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That's not what happened after 2008...

[Ian]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

That's not what happened after 2008...

Go on...
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Ian

Go on...
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there were all kinds of efforts by banks to find ways to help
people stay in their homes. i had neighbors with a nice house who struggled , they worked with the bank for over a year. not everything was mandated by law, there was a lot of back
and forth negotiating.

it’s much cheaper and easier
for banks to keep existing homeowners in their homes, then to try to foreclose and sell.
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