Lybia

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by spence

I think it's taken some time to 1) build the consensus so there's an Arab face on this action rather than being seen as pure US intervention and 2) let it play out a bit.

You're bleeping me? Give it more time. I am not a fan of intervention here (I think maybe Europe steps up on this one and we support that effort). But by the time the admin gets going, this will be all over. If you allow more time for Arab consensus it is long over. The only good new if the Arabs DO IT with an d ARAB face is that at least the Junior Varsity will be going against the Middle School squad. The action windows is nearly closed.

Originally Posted by spence

This deal would also give the Saudi Royal Family some cover as they crack down internally and help in Bahrain...NOTE: Both strategic US allies.

Yes, tough nut to decipher on this one.

Originally Posted by spence

As Iran tries to stir the pot there's the Sunni/Shiite dynamic as well here. Iran would really like the (mostly Shiite) protests in Bahrain to be successful.

Speaking of Iran, arming AQ/Taliban now. And reports are going around that a ship bound for Hamas has been intercepted with Anti Ship Missiles (not RPGs) and a Chinese ship was intercepted with WMD components bound for Iran.

Originally Posted by spence

Considering the complexity and variability of the situation, its actually not looking all that terrible. Obama seems to have been pretty careful to not make statements or promises we can't keep, something very different from Bush.

Spencism Alert! Spencism Alert! Spencism Alert!

Originally Posted by spence

And if the UN does impose a no fly zone in Lybia, who's going to stand behind the Lybian Govt? The Sudan??? I'm not sure the regime can survive...

-spence

Well, you could have a repeat of the last two wars in the middle east. No Fly Zones do not occupy territory.