China tariffs - did we win?

[Jim in CT]

i know little about international economics. Sounds like the Chinese president has made some concessions in the tariff war. i don’t know if they are meaningful
or not, i do get the impression that the tariff war has hurt them more than its hurt us, at least in terms of stock market impact.

Was it a meaningful win? Was it a loss? was it no big deal? our markets went up a bit after the announcement...

[Pete F.]

I do deals all the time.
I have a lot of possible deals.
But they are not the real deal until they are done.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Pete F.

I do deals all the time.
I have a lot of possible deals.
But they are not the real deal until they are done.

if this one gets done as they agreed to, is it meaningful to us?
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[Pete F.]

I have only heard different stories from each side to date, so what they may agree on is unknown to me.
Still posturing, one inscrutable, one unpredictable
Business is not happy, the markets went up and then down more.

[Got Stripers]

With the market again diving almost 700 points today as of now over renewed concern about the trade war I know I’m NOT winning😡
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Got Stripers

With the market again diving almost 700 points today as of now over renewed concern about the trade war I know I’m NOT winning😡
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it’s one day.
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[Got Stripers]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

it’s one day.
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Well in case your not tracking it, we recently lost an entire years worth of gains, the latest uncertainty is just salt on my wounds
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[Got Stripers]

We keep on "winning" don't we, another banner day in the market, more fear over trade war and the economy starting to show signs of slowing.

The rich and corporate upper echelon certainly had a good year to date, but I'd be surprised if the poor younger middle class working stiffs more heavily invested in the market then I am are doing all that well.

Then you have the poor factory workers in those GM plants slated to close, its a double whammy for them this year, but hey Trump is keeping those coal plants cranking so there will be something to put in their stockings.

[spence]

Not sure China has offered up that much, I do know American farmers are getting hammered. Manufacturing isn’t going to just up and move production back home as that’s a long term play and they’re servicing a global market more than ever. Besides the next admin could just roll back the policy.

It does look like they are starting to drag on the global economy hard.
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[Pete F.]

It’s a good thing I can’t post pics or Tarriff Man would be right here
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[PaulS]

The decrease today started exactly when Peter Navarro said that if the trade talks are not successful they will impose the 25% tariffs.
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[detbuch]

Originally Posted by Got Stripers

We keep on "winning" don't we, another banner day in the market, more fear over trade war and the economy starting to show signs of slowing.

The rich and corporate upper echelon certainly had a good year to date, but I'd be surprised if the poor younger middle class working stiffs more heavily invested in the market then I am are doing all that well.

Then you have the poor factory workers in those GM plants slated to close, its a double whammy for them this year, but hey Trump is keeping those coal plants cranking so there will be something to put in their stockings.

Stocks did not reflect the actual market when their prices skyrocketed during stagnant market conditions. The rich were investing in stocks rather than in a weak business market. As the market improved and money started to be diverted from stock investment into business growth rather than into inflated stocks, and inflated stocks were sold off for profit, stock prices began to fall, as predicted, and are probably coming into a closer relationship to the market. Stock prices will probably continue to fall. But if they reach a more realistic index, it will make them a more reliable source for retirement portfolios.

Trade negotiations with China require the will to suffer temporary market jitters. If we cave due to fear of market failure, then China won't need to make concessions, so will continue to do what it has been doing. If we stay the course, they will have to blink or suffer worse political upheavals than we would, and our market will stabilize and rebound if we don't overreact and make unnecessary regulatory or tax interventions.

As of now, our market is still strong. There will always be bits of bad news for some. The automobile sector is being cajoled, if not forced, into re-gearing, as GM is doing, for electric car production. If you're concerned about global warming due to burning fossil fuels, then you should welcome the changes the auto companies are making even while we regret the unfortunate temporary hardships for some that will follow.

But an overall strong and growing economy, if we stay the course, will provide more opportunities for unemployed workers.

[Got Stripers]

Originally Posted by detbuch

Stocks did not reflect the actual market when their prices skyrocketed during stagnant market conditions. The rich were investing in stocks rather than in a weak business market. As the market improved and money started to be diverted from stock investment into business growth rather than into inflated stocks, and inflated stocks were sold off for profit, stock prices began to fall, as predicted, and are probably coming into a closer relationship to the market. Stock prices will probably continue to fall. But if they reach a more realistic index, it will make them a more reliable source for retirement portfolios.

Trade negotiations with China require the will to suffer temporary market jitters. If we cave due to fear of market failure, then China won't need to make concessions, so will continue to do what it has been doing. If we stay the course, they will have to blink or suffer worse political upheavals than we would, and our market will stabilize and rebound if we don't overreact and make unnecessary regulatory or tax interventions.

As of now, our market is still strong. There will always be bits of bad news for some. The automobile sector is being cajoled, if not forced, into re-gearing, as GM is doing, for electric car production. If you're concerned about global warming due to burning fossil fuels, then you should welcome the changes the auto companies are making even while we regret the unfortunate temporary hardships for some that will follow.

But an overall strong and growing economy, if we stay the course, will provide more opportunities for unemployed workers.

I'm invested at a low risk level being retired, but even so, my losses in just over a year now are approaching 8%. Not sure I agree the market is doing well this year, it's actually the reverse in a single calendar year. I don't mess with my investment company's plans as being in good health, with no real need for large cash withdrawals in the near future, I have no choice but to stay the course. Knowing where I was invested in the market when I was younger and working, I know I'd be taking a big arse beating this year.

[wdmso]

Message on my MA smart plan

In light of recent market volatility, remember that your retirement plan is intended for long-term investment. Attempts to time the market are rarely successful. One way to manage risk over time is to ensure you have a diversified portfolio that is rebalanced through up-and-down markets. Keep your individual needs, goals and time horizon in mind and consult with your financial adviser if needed. It is important to note diversification and rebalancing do not ensure a profit and do not protect against loss in declining markets.

10/07/2018 12/07/2018 -0.86% lost a 1000.00 from 9\30\18 thru 12\7\18

[detbuch]

Originally Posted by Got Stripers

I'm invested at a low risk level being retired, but even so, my losses in just over a year now are approaching 8%. Not sure I agree the market is doing well this year, it's actually the reverse in a single calendar year. I don't mess with my investment company's plans as being in good health, with no real need for large cash withdrawals in the near future, I have no choice but to stay the course. Knowing where I was invested in the market when I was younger and working, I know I'd be taking a big arse beating this year.

I was referring to the economic market, not the stock market. Many believe the stock market was overpriced and due to come down. The dynamics have reversed. The good economic market invites investment in business that was not as attractive in a stale economy where most big money investment went to stocks instead of business.

I think, unless we go back to higher business taxes and regulations, things will keep looking good and even out to a secure position that helps your investment future. At least, for your sake, I hope so.

And if the Repubs can get the strictly middle class cut in taxes that they're proposing, it may get even better.

[Got Stripers]

Originally Posted by detbuch

I was referring to the economic market, not the stock market. Many believe the stock market was overpriced and due to come down. The dynamics have reversed. The good economic market invites investment in business that was not as attractive in a stale economy where most big money investment went to stocks instead of business.

I think, unless we go back to higher business taxes and regulations, things will keep looking good and even out to a secure position that helps your investment future. At least, for your sake, I hope so.

And if the Repubs can get the strictly middle class cut in taxes that they're proposing, it may get even better.

Recesssions happen, it’s cyclical, we may have already reached the pinicle of this cycle.
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[Jim in CT]

got stripers, obama
also had days when the market was down. judge him
on how the market does over his whole presidency, maybe? although when it was up you did point that out so you’re fair that way. Some guy at J.p. morgan said the pe ration for the sp500 is low
and that he thinks the market is irrationally low. if that’s true, and that’s a pretty big if, it’s a buying opportunity. also from what i understand the tariffs are hurtingbthe chinese market far worse, so if they agree to favorable terms ( also a big if) it could be a win for him.

the economy is healthy, and the market has done well
since he’s been in office, hasn’t it? we may end 2018 with annual
gdp growth over 3 percent, i think 2005 was the last time thatbhappened.
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[Got Stripers]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

got stripers, obama
also had days when the market was down. judge him
on how the market does over his whole presidency, maybe? although when it was up you did point that out so you’re fair that way. Some guy at J.p. morgan said the pe ration for the sp500 is low
and that he thinks the market is irrationally low. if that’s true, and that’s a pretty big if, it’s a buying opportunity. also from what i understand the tariffs are hurtingbthe chinese market far worse, so if they agree to favorable terms ( also a big if) it could be a win for him.

the economy is healthy, and the market has done well
since he’s been in office, hasn’t it? we may end 2018 with annual
gdp growth over 3 percent, i think 2005 was the last time thatbhappened.
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Judging him year by year as I'm sure most are. Year one was an extension of an already strong economy and of course Trump took all the credit for the market while it was making all those gains. At the end of this year I have less money in my retirement account, then I had when he took office and as expected Trump is silent on the market as it reacts to the trade war, the fed and possibly a slowing economy. Not arguing that the GDP is up, I think it certainly is debatable if Trump and his administration is responsible; again this is still an extension of what he inherited. Not saying some moves he made helped it continue, but those moves also put most of that wealth right back into the corporations and upper 1-2 percent. If he makes it to year 4, I guess we can review and debate his impact on my retirement account and the economy as a whole.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Got Stripers

Judging him year by year as I'm sure most are. Year one was an extension of an already strong economy and of course Trump took all the credit for the market while it was making all those gains. At the end of this year I have less money in my retirement account, then I had when he took office and as expected Trump is silent on the market as it reacts to the trade war, the fed and possibly a slowing economy. Not arguing that the GDP is up, I think it certainly is debatable if Trump and his administration is responsible; again this is still an extension of what he inherited. Not saying some moves he made helped it continue, but those moves also put most of that wealth right back into the corporations and upper 1-2 percent. If he makes it to year 4, I guess we can review and debate his impact on my retirement account and the economy as a whole.

year one also benefited from the regulations that were eliminated, and from the confidence that wall street had a real ally. obamas
momentum was part of it, but trump helped it. let’s be honest and fair.
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if you have less $$ now then you had in january 2017, you’re doing something wrong and that’s not his fault.

[Got Stripers]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

year one also benefited from the regulations that were eliminated, and from the confidence that wall street had a real ally. obamas
momentum was part of it, but trump helped it. let’s be honest and fair.
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if you have less $$ now then you had in january 2017, you’re doing something wrong and that’s not his fault.

The gains I made in 2017 are gone due to what has happened in the market in 2018 and I don't monkey with what Fidelity is doing with my accounts; I don't have that kind of market knowledge to trust myself with trading. Going back to a balance I had when he took office is all the proof I need to give him a failing mark thus far, you can judge him however you like.

Two years in and he has had one legislation passed and that tax cut profited the rich for the most part; yeah short terms for some but stay tuned.

Not sure the environment is going to keep winning with some of the moves he's made that impact it, so I'm giving him a failing mark there as well.

I'd agree China needed to be addressed, but I'm not sure the all out trade war is the best approach, I'm holding out on my judgement on that one.

I have to give him a good mark for getting NK to the table, but it doesn't appear to have gone anywhere from there.

Jobs, sure he's helped, but again when you have a economy (large ocean going box ship) going in one direction, it goes that way for a long, long time. Economy changes aren't done on a dime, they evolve over years.

Immigration, well that's his campaigning platform and he is still looking for his wall. Not arguing that our borders needed to be tighter, but the way he goes about it is wrong, or you wouldn't keep getting judges ruling against him. He fails IMHO, as this needed to be a partisan approach from the beginning, otherwise nothing substantial will come of it.

Hard to put forth good legislation and changes that are positive for everyone, when you can barely keep the "good" people today long enough; he gets an F for civility and good judgement on hires and fires. Look at the comments made recently about Rex, dumb as a rock and lazy, he turned from smart and sharp to dumb as a rock in a year really. An F isn't a low enough grade to give him on civility and respect for his peers.

Have you been reading or getting the filings released and not just the spin Fox News is putting on them? I don't think it's looking too good for the Trump family when all is reveled. I love it that Fox and Trump are echo's of one another, claiming it proves no collusion is so laughable. Even some that wasn't redacted seems to indicate a coordinated effort by all in the campaign staff to get their stories straight on dealings with the Russians and now the Trump family business ventures in Russia are part of the equation. I'd bet my life on him not running in 2020 and I'm not sure he will even reach that far before the other shoe drops.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Got Stripers

The gains I made in 2017 are gone due to what has happened in the market in 2018 and I don't monkey with what Fidelity is doing with my accounts; I don't have that kind of market knowledge to trust myself with trading. Going back to a balance I had when he took office is all the proof I need to give him a failing mark thus far, you can judge him however you like.

Two years in and he has had one legislation passed and that tax cut profited the rich for the most part; yeah short terms for some but stay tuned.

Not sure the environment is going to keep winning with some of the moves he's made that impact it, so I'm giving him a failing mark there as well.

I'd agree China needed to be addressed, but I'm not sure the all out trade war is the best approach, I'm holding out on my judgement on that one.

I have to give him a good mark for getting NK to the table, but it doesn't appear to have gone anywhere from there.

Jobs, sure he's helped, but again when you have a economy (large ocean going box ship) going in one direction, it goes that way for a long, long time. Economy changes aren't done on a dime, they evolve over years.

Immigration, well that's his campaigning platform and he is still looking for his wall. Not arguing that our borders needed to be tighter, but the way he goes about it is wrong, or you wouldn't keep getting judges ruling against him. He fails IMHO, as this needed to be a partisan approach from the beginning, otherwise nothing substantial will come of it.

Hard to put forth good legislation and changes that are positive for everyone, when you can barely keep the "good" people today long enough; he gets an F for civility and good judgement on hires and fires. Look at the comments made recently about Rex, dumb as a rock and lazy, he turned from smart and sharp to dumb as a rock in a year really. An F isn't a low enough grade to give him on civility and respect for his peers.

Have you been reading or getting the filings released and not just the spin Fox News is putting on them? I don't think it's looking too good for the Trump family when all is reveled. I love it that Fox and Trump are echo's of one another, claiming it proves no collusion is so laughable. Even some that wasn't redacted seems to indicate a coordinated effort by all in the campaign staff to get their stories straight on dealings with the Russians and now the Trump family business ventures in Russia are part of the equation. I'd bet my life on him not running in 2020 and I'm not sure he will even reach that far before the other shoe drops.

The market is up meaningfully since January 2017. I’m not a financial advisor, but if you’re ok with lagging the market by double digits, that’s your issue, not Trumps fault. The indices are up since he took office. Gdp is up meaningfully, and unemployment is down meaningfully. trump clearly inherited favorable tailwinds from obama. He is also clearly making his own positive impact. i don’t know what you’re invested in, but the broad statistics are all better now than when he took office. Do you dispute that?

i think you’re being extremely fair in China, it may end well, but americans are hurting now because if it. maybe a more finessed approach would
have been wise. We’ll see. but you were fair.

on jobs, i agree it doesn’t change on a dime. but most people admit he has been a positive influence. most say we’re overdue for a recession, maybe he deserves some credit for extending the good run.

on immigration, i’m no lawyer but we need major changes, and it means nothing to me if the 9th circuit blocks him, those idiots are constantly overturned, they don’t care about the law, they care about liberal advocacy. But he’s not winning on immigration, i agree.

I also give him a F on civility, not in hires. i love Mattis, and i love love love the supreme court picks.

on the special investigator, filings, etc, all i saw was that alan dershowitz, a lefty if there ever was one, said he saw no crimes in what trump did. if trump is guilty, i want him impeached as much as Spence and Pete.

to me, the economy and the supreme court picks and killing terrorists, are what matter. putting kavanaugh in the SCOTUS, and all the appointments he’ll make in the next two years, it doesn’t even matter as much to me
if liberals sweep in 2020 ( and they might), they can’t go nearkybas far with these judges. he’s put in limits for far we can go in ignoring the constitution. to me, that’s his legacy, and it’s awesome.

it would
be nice if he had better bedside manner. but i care more about results.
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[Nebe]

Meh...
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Nebe

Meh...
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so it’s no biggie when a democrat lies under oath, but when
a republican behaves badly, that needs to be addressed.
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[wdmso]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

so it’s no biggie when a democrat lies under oath, but when
a republican behaves badly, that needs to be addressed.
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Jim So do you have the ability to to see things objectively?

You are a 100% correct he lied under oath as POTUS...

About a blow job .....

when presented in context with white water and all the other Conservative investigations against clintons and blue dress is the best they could do.. its speaks a lot about your party historically

But when confronted with Guilty pleas lining up against Trumps inner circle all the information ... you want impeachable offense?? are you suggesting its a witch hunt ?, it wont be for lying he'll never testify under oath

you falsely claim I want him impeached regardless of whether or not he committed an impeachable offense, because you don’t like him

He is an embarrassment to the united states a Liar a bully and has no respect for the institutions of the US ... your correct I do not like Him because of his actions his words not solely because he has an R next to his name . vote him out or impeach him were stuck with him for 2 more years as this plays out anyway ...

he is the only captain of a ship who is not responsible for anything his people do or say while the serve under him??

[scottw]

Originally Posted by wdmso

Jim So do you have the ability to to see things objectively?

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Trump is a snake. As of right now, we don’t know if he committed an impeachable offense. If he did, i want him impeached.

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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by scottw

thank you!
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by wdmso

Jim So do you have the ability to to see things objectively?

You are a 100% correct he lied under oath as POTUS...

About a blow job .....

when presented in context with white water and all the other Conservative investigations against clintons and blue dress is the best they could do.. its speaks a lot about your party historically

But when confronted with Guilty pleas lining up against Trumps inner circle all the information ... you want impeachable offense?? are you suggesting its a witch hunt ?, it wont be for lying he'll never testify under oath

you falsely claim I want him impeached regardless of whether or not he committed an impeachable offense, because you don’t like him

He is an embarrassment to the united states a Liar a bully and has no respect for the institutions of the US ... your correct I do not like Him because of his actions his words not solely because he has an R next to his name . vote him out or impeach him were stuck with him for 2 more years as this plays out anyway ...

he is the only captain of a ship who is not responsible for anything his people do or say while the serve under him??

i’m way more objective than you. i thought Bill Clinton was a decent president who was a scumbag. as with trump, i’m not nearly as concerned with bedside manner as i am with results. But when he was obviously guilty of committing a crime, i was in favor of impeachment. He also got disbarred. When lawyers feel youvare too unethical to associate with them, that’s really something.

I say the same exact thing about Trump. A good president who is also clearly a scumbag. I want him investigated ( some say he will be indicted, some like liberal alan dershowitz say there’s zero evidence he broke the law). if he broke the law, he has to pay for it. if he didn’t, let’s move on at some point?

I’m way way more consistent and objective than you are, im applying the same exact standards to clinton and trump. Zero difference. Zip.
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by wdmso

Jim So do you have the ability to to see things objectively?

You are a 100% correct he lied under oath as POTUS...

About a blow job .....

when presented in context with white water and all the other Conservative investigations against clintons and blue dress is the best they could do.. its speaks a lot about your party historically

But when confronted with Guilty pleas lining up against Trumps inner circle all the information ... you want impeachable offense?? are you suggesting its a witch hunt ?, it wont be for lying he'll never testify under oath

you falsely claim I want him impeached regardless of whether or not he committed an impeachable offense, because you don’t like him

He is an embarrassment to the united states a Liar a bully and has no respect for the institutions of the US ... your correct I do not like Him because of his actions his words not solely because he has an R next to his name . vote him out or impeach him were stuck with him for 2 more years as this plays out anyway ...

he is the only captain of a ship who is not responsible for anything his people do or say while the serve under him??

as for trump not respecting things...from where i sit, he respects people like me, he respects cops, he respects the military, a hell of a lot more than Obama ever did. Those things may not matter to some people, but they matter to me. Also, you let me know when the Little Sisters Of The Poor successfully sue Trump for trampling on their religious rights ( that happened with Obama, also with Hobby Lobby), and let me know when Trump is using the IRS as a club against political opponents.

it doesn’t bother you when obama disrespects fundamental institutions, or when he trampled on the constitution when it served his agenda. you only get worked up when trump does it. That’s the textbook definition of a hypocrite.

Try making that wrong...go ahead.
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[Pete F.]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

as for trump not respecting things...from where i sit, he respects people like me, he respects cops, he respects the military, a hell of a lot more than Obama ever did. Those things may not matter to some people, but they matter to me. Also, you let me know when the Little Sisters Of The Poor successfully sue Trump for trampling on their religious rights ( that happened with Obama, also with Hobby Lobby), and let me know when Trump is using the IRS as a club against political opponents.

it doesn’t bother you when obama disrespects fundamental institutions, or when he trampled on the constitution when it served his agenda. you only get worked up when trump does it. That’s the textbook definition of a hypocrite.

Try making that wrong...go ahead.
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Sooner or later you'll find out just how much he respects you.
Trump claims to respect cops but consistently disrespects our legal institutions and the rule of law.
He claims to respect the military but uses them for political purposes and in two years has yet to go to a combat zone.
He has been at best selective on religious rights, but admittedly perfect if you are a evangelical christian.
And once again you cite baloney to claim that Obama did something, surprised you don't want to see his birth certificate.
https://www.newsweek.com/remember-ir...l-along-681674
Trump would love to use the Justice Department as a club as he has said many times, luckily they believe in the rule of law.

[Pete F.]

I realize you think Trump respects you, but he's playing you for a fool.
If is politically expedient for us to fail in the future as long as there is the appearance of success at the current time, he has no issue with the final results being bad as long as his ratings are good.
His military approval rating was little different than Obamas and is dropping.
" President Donald Trump’s approval rating among active-duty military personnel has slipped over the last two years, leaving today’s troops evenly split over whether they’re happy with the commander in chief’s job performance, according to the results of a new Military Times poll of active-duty service members.

About 44 percent of troops had a favorable view of Trump’s presidency, the poll showed, compared to 43 percent who disapproved.

The results from the survey, conducted over the course of September and October, suggest a gradual decline in troops’ support of Trump since he was elected in fall 2016, when a similar Military Times poll showed that 46 percent of troops approved of Trump compared to 37 percent who disapproved. That nine-point margin of support now appears gone."

Pretty much anyone other than conservative white
people who are middle class evangelical Christians have had their rights trampled on.

The Department of Health and Human Services created a new civil rights division to protect medical personnel who, based on their religious beliefs, refuse to treat patients -- regardless of the patient's needs or access to alternative providers. So religious freedom means the freedom to discriminate.
In February, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos proposed spending over $1 billion on private school vouchers and other school choice plans. Based on existing voucher programs, a lot of that money would have ended up subsidizing religious schools if Congress had approved the funds.
The Department of Education also announced its desire to change rules that prohibit federal education funding for faith-based entities, and has re-opened the public comment period to begin the process. Some of those funds may well end up subsidizing religious schools that teach creationism and declare climate science a hoax. So religious freedom means the freedom to undermine science at taxpayer expense.
Top officials -- such as Vice President Mike Pence -- have repeatedly committed to overturning Roe v. Wade, despite the fact that 63% of Americans support it, and now they have a Supreme Court nominee who might help do just that. So religious freedom means forcing one interpretation of religion on everyone.
President Donald Trump has (so far unsuccessfully) tried to get rid of the Johnson Amendment to let religious leaders explicitly endorse candidates from the pulpit. So religious freedom means compromising the separation of church and state, allowing people to use religion for partisan advantage and politics to build religious power.