OPEC can't and won't replace supply if Iran is attacked.

[likwid]

Soooo.... $10/gal gas anyone?

MADRID (Reuters) - OPEC could not replace lost Iranian output should Tehran carry out its threat to stop oil exports if attacked, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said on Tuesday.

"It's obvious that if you curtail 4 million barrels per day (bpd) from the market, you are going to have a big problem. I don't see who can replace that, including OPEC," Khelil told a news conference in Madrid.

Khelil said the perceived threat of conflict had helped to drive oil prices higher, although he said the main reason for crude near $143 a barrel was the weakness of the U.S. dollar.

"Unless we address those causes we're not going to see low oil prices ... We need to do something about geopolitics. We need to do something about the dollar," Khelil, who is also Algeria's oil minister, said.

Fears that Iran, OPEC's second largest producer and the world's fourth biggest producer, could retaliate by disrupting oil exports if attacked by Israel or the United States over its nuclear program have weighed on the oil market for months.

The depreciation of the U.S. dollar was another big factor, Khelil said, adding that its impact on the oil price was even greater.

Oil, like most commodities, is priced in dollars and most commodity prices have rallied to make up for the drop in the value of the currency used to price them.

The dollar has fallen sharply against the euro and a basket of currencies as the U.S. Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates this year to shore up the financial system and the wider economy from a credit crunch triggered by crisis involving sub-prime mortgages.

Khelil said oil prices would probably rise again if the European Central Bank raised interest rates on Thursday because the euro would strengthen against the U.S. Continued...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/busine...LA572420080702

[Mr. Sandman]

Originally Posted by likwid

Soooo.... $10/gal gas anyone?

MADRID (Reuters) - OPEC could not replace lost Iranian output should Tehran carry out its threat to stop oil exports if attacked, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said on Tuesday.

"It's obvious that if you curtail 4 million barrels per day (bpd) from the market, you are going to have a big problem. I don't see who can replace that, including OPEC," Khelil told a news conference in Madrid.

Khelil said the perceived threat of conflict had helped to drive oil prices higher, although he said the main reason for crude near $143 a barrel was the weakness of the U.S. dollar.

"Unless we address those causes we're not going to see low oil prices ... We need to do something about geopolitics. We need to do something about the dollar," Khelil, who is also Algeria's oil minister, said.

Fears that Iran, OPEC's second largest producer and the world's fourth biggest producer, could retaliate by disrupting oil exports if attacked by Israel or the United States over its nuclear program have weighed on the oil market for months.

The depreciation of the U.S. dollar was another big factor, Khelil said, adding that its impact on the oil price was even greater.

Oil, like most commodities, is priced in dollars and most commodity prices have rallied to make up for the drop in the value of the currency used to price them.

The dollar has fallen sharply against the euro and a basket of currencies as the U.S. Federal Reserve has slashed interest rates this year to shore up the financial system and the wider economy from a credit crunch triggered by crisis involving sub-prime mortgages.

Khelil said oil prices would probably rise again if the European Central Bank raised interest rates on Thursday because the euro would strengthen against the U.S. Continued...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/busine...LA572420080702

I am getting sick of Iran...Let's just take them over thru force, make them the 51st state, secure an instant domestic oil supply (in someone else's backyard) and stabilize the Iran/Israel tensions at the same time. Problem solved. Maybe Bush can pull this off prior to leaving.

[Joe]

And you can't just bomb the nuke facilities either...you have to dismantle their ability to impede oil traffic in the gulf.

[justplugit]

Not to worry.

Barack Obama will make nice to Iran and they will end their hatreds,

dismantle the Shahab 3s and shut down their nuclear centrifuges.

All will be well.

Unless of course he "changes" his mind.

[likwid]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sandman

Let's just take them over thru force

WORKING GREAT IN IRAQ!
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

[justplugit]

Originally Posted by Joe

...you have to dismantle their ability to impede oil traffic in the gulf.

Complicated for sure with mining of shipping lanes.

[The Dad Fisherman]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sandman

Maybe Bush can pull this off prior to leaving.

I don't know...thats a tad more complicated than looking to see which shoe says "L" and which shoe says "R"

[likwid]

Originally Posted by The Dad Fisherman

I don't know...thats a tad more complicated than looking to see which shoe says "L" and which shoe says "R"

[Nebe]

natural gas and electric is going up 20% in RI as of yesterday.. aaarrrrg/

[Rockport24]

you know even if US companies got complete control of a lot of those oil fields in the middle east or drilled up a bunch offshore and in ANWR, all the oil still goes into the global market for trade, so it's not like it would be directly beneficial to us as consumers, it would A LOT more beneficial to anyone who holds stock in oil companies though
the US would have to get to a point where ALL it's oil came from it's own resources so we could break away from the foreign market.
That would take more than just a few wars I imagine.

[Bronko]

Everyone calm down. Obama will save us. Hope and Change go a long way with oil speculators and arabs.

[zacs]

Originally Posted by Bronko

Everyone calm down. Obama will save us. Hope and Change go a long way with oil speculators and arabs.

good point... everything is going so well now, why would anyone want change????

[spence]

Originally Posted by Rockport24

you know even if US companies got complete control of a lot of those oil fields in the middle east or drilled up a bunch offshore and in ANWAR, all the oil still goes into the global market for trade, so it's not like it would be directly beneficial to us as consumers, it would A LOT more beneficial to anyone who holds stock in oil companies though
the US would have to get to a point where ALL it's oil came from it's own resources so we could break away from the foreign market.
That would take more than just a few wars I imagine.

That's why many countries with large reserves have been nationalizing their resources.

-spence

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by zacs

good point... everything is going so well now, why would anyone want change????

Zac is getting political....uh oh

[Rockport24]

hmmm interesting, you mean not putting their oil into the market? ohh nevermind, you mean like Venezuela? Unfortunately, even in the US did have the reserves I think it's a lost cause.

[zacs]

This is what happens when I don't fish for a month.....

I normally try to stay out of this stuff... and I am not an Obama supporter.

But what option do we have at this point? Who can support another 4 years of policy that even closely resembles what we have been going through for the past 8????

[Joe]

You think the economy is bad now - wait until people have to deal with heating bills this winter.

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by zacs

This is what happens when I don't fish for a month.....

I normally try to stay out of this stuff... and I am not an Obama supporter.

But what option do we have at this point? Who can support another 4 years of policy that even closely resembles what we have been going through for the past 8????

I have too much respect for you to see you get pulled into this......

[Mr. Sandman]

Originally Posted by Joe

You think the economy is bad now - wait until people have to deal with heating bills this winter.

You are right... I think many can tough out the gas for the family car during the summer but heat in the winter is a must. A lot of families in up state NY, and through out Northern NE will freeze to death this year as burring $5+ oil is not an option for most. You will see make shift wood burning stoves light many a house on fire and people will indeed die.
They got what they wanted...high prices, panic and despair around the election. Congrats.

[likwid]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sandman

They got what they wanted...high prices, panic and despair around the election. Congrats.

Thank the speculators who keep driving it up out of greed.
Mostly wall street types in our own country.

[spence]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sandman

They got what they wanted...high prices, panic and despair around the election. Congrats.

Who's "they"...unless you mean...

THE LIBERALS?

I'm assuming you voted last election for President Bush? The ticket who claimed a vote for John Kerry would bring another terrorist attack? No panic and despair there, no sir eee bob.

Imagine if you will a US Government controlled only by the fair minded, tough handed and fiscally responsible Republican party...oh, I guess we had that for 4 years. In return we got bigger government, perhaps an unwinable war, trillions more in National debt and on and on.

-spence

[buckman]

I'm not on the side of attacking Iran, however... They do not have the ability to stop the flow of oil in that region. It would be suicide to try. We would crush them. And have a reason to do it. They are rattiling sabers and that just might get them a slap. Not to smart if you ask me. Iran is a threat to stability in the area.

[likwid]

Originally Posted by buckman

We would crush them.

You mean like we did in Iraq?

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

[spence]

Originally Posted by buckman

They do not have the ability to stop the flow of oil in that region.

They don't need to stop the flow of oil. Simply a good disruption would make 140 bucks a barrel seem cheap.

Iran wouldn't come out in the open and attack, they'd do it by proxy and covertly just like they've been fighting us in Palestine.

At the same time they'd be clammoring for peace in public, and doing everything to obfuscate their real behavior. This would give just enough pause to make the decision to attack Iran a lot more complicated.

-spence

[buckmanjr]

I know what your saying Spence. Hopefully there are people in charge at the time who will do what has to be done and not fall for Irans BS.

And by the way likwid, we did oust Saddam and his army in the blink of an eye. I'm pretty sure even Bush new it would take a long time before the whole thing would be over. You just hear what you want to hear. If it's anti American and anti Bush you jump right on the band wagon.

[buckman]

Sorry. I posted that under my son's name.

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by buckmanjr

I'm pretty sure even Bush new it would take a long time before the whole thing would be over.

B.S.

My good friend (A republican) and I talked about this last night.
His take:
Either A. they lied to us about why we went in to Iraq.
or B. They were wrong and wont admit it.

He couldnt decide which was worse.

Iran scares the crap out of me. If we go in there it will be an even worse situation than Iraq. Meanwhile Afghanistan, where we probably should be in full force, is sliding further downhill...

[Joe]

I think the administration thought that by now U.S. oil companies would be in control of Iraqi oil reserves and the spigot would be wide open to meet global demand.

[buckman]

Play back the speaches Bush gave after 9/11 and leading up to war. Play back what he said after Suddam was ousted. He made it very clear that this would be a long haul. I recall things a little different then you guys. We all wondered if America had the stomach for a war that would last years and years. I guess we know the answer to that. Glad this generation wasn't in charge during World War I and II.

[Joe]

You might want to check the start and stop dates for the two world wars.