A little Surprise

[scottw]

surprised to read this in the MSM let alone on MSNBC yesterday, there have been questions regarding the unemp statistics that the admin has been touting particularly when we heard it would take 400,000 jobs a month to improve the number and we've not seen anything close to that yet...as MSNBC points out...

" The unemployment rate has fallen by six-tenths of a percentage point from October's level of 8.9 percent. That is an unusually rapid decline "

and

"rapid decline in the jobless rate in the past few months has defied expectations; some economists argue that the widely-followed seasonally-adjusted numbers may be too good to be true"

The CBO attributed much of the decline as due to shrinking of the workforce participation and specifically pointed out that it was not attributable to retirees....."

MSNBC lets you in on a little secret down further in the article...

"So far, the downward trend has helped the president.

As the job numbers have improved, so has Obama's approval rating - rising from a low of 41 percent in October to 45 percent in February, according to the latest Gallup poll.

But it remains to be seen whether that momentum can be sustained until the November election. The rapid decline in the jobless rate in the past few months has defied expectations; some economists argue that the widely-followed seasonally-adjusted numbers may be too good to be true.

Some suspect the government's formulas for smoothing out seasonal factors may be inadvertently inflating the numbers. Gallup chief economist Dennis Jacobe figures that, without those seasonal adjustments, the jobless rate has actually been rising for the past three months, hitting 9.1 percent in January."

I don't know about "inadvertantly"




Economy Watch - Employment data may be too good to be true


U.S. Unemployment Up in February

[justplugit]

Originally Posted by scottw

I don't know about "inadvertanly".

Ya inadvertently, I trust them as far as I could throw them.
The same people I know that have been unemployed, upto 20 months
and still looking, are just that, still looking.

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by justplugit

Ya inadvertently, I trust them as far as I could throw them.
The same people I know that have been unemployed, upto 20 months
and still looking, are just that, still looking.

There are other stories as well on the flip side of the still looking cases.

My Sister in law's sister and brother in law moved back to RI from Hawaii in Sept, and both had decent paying jobs landed within a month or so.

[zimmy]

My brother moved to Rochester NY area less than two years ago when he got married. High school education, fair amount of experience in food manufacturing. Immediately got a job at north american brewing. Recently took a different job in commercial food production plant. Says there are tons of jobs in those fields.
Circumstantial evidence is great stuff isn't it?

[scottw]

Originally Posted by zimmy

Circumstantial evidence is great stuff isn't it?

I think you mean anecdotal

[justplugit]

They should thank their lucky stars.
My son-in law, union electrician,past foreman and liscensed inspector out
for 20 months. On page 9 for a job right now. So much for stimulus and infrastructure.
The guys have a lot of time to talk at the union hall everyday and won't
be voting for Obama this time.

My sister-in law, graphic designer, out of work and looking for 18 months

Circumstantial, I feel your liberal compsassion.
Different story when it's you or your family.

[zimmy]

Originally Posted by scottw

I think you mean anecdotal

Probably a better word for it. Both work. It is kind of semantics.

Originally Posted by justplugit

Circumstantial, I feel your liberal compsassion.
Different story when it's you or your family.

It has nothing to do with compassion. You didn't bring it up as an issue of compassion. You brought it up as evidence that the labor market is worse than the jobs numbers. If it is a sensitive issue for you, don't use it in a political forum to back your political statements, which, as I have brought up before, seem to be based on your perceptions than reality.

[scottw]

Originally Posted by zimmy

You brought it up as evidence that the labor market is worse than the jobs numbers. If it is a sensitive issue for you, don't use it in a political forum to back your political statements, which, as I have brought up before, seem to be based on your perceptions than reality.

with historically high underemployment (19% current http://www.gallup.com/poll/153161/Un...-February.aspx ) and historically low workforce participation and "tweaks" to how we've historically measured unemployment....there is ample "evidence that the labor market is worse than the jobs numbers "....much worse

[spence]

Originally Posted by zimmy

My brother moved to Rochester NY area less than two years ago when he got married. High school education, fair amount of experience in food manufacturing. Immediately got a job at north american brewing. Recently took a different job in commercial food production plant. Says there are tons of jobs in those fields.
Circumstantial evidence is great stuff isn't it?

Rochester is finally recovering from the damage inflicted by Kodak and Xerox both suffering dramatic downsizing. Their housing market is expected to be a top performer the next few years. I've been working with a number of high-tech companies in upstate NY, many are doing quite well.

A big problem with the unemployment situation is people who don't (or can't) retrain or relocate to find employment.

Right now we have a domestic workforce misaligned with the needs of global industry.

-spence

[scottw]

Originally Posted by spence

Rochester is finally recovering from the damage inflicted by Kodak and Xerox both suffering dramatic downsizing. Their housing market is expected to be a top performer the next few years. I've been working with a number of high-tech companies in upstate NY, many are doing quite well.

A big problem with the unemployment situation is people who don't (or can't) retrain or relocate to find employment.

Right now we have a domestic workforce misaligned with the needs of global industry.

-spence

huh???
Report: N.Y. shows some economic gains, but recovery stallingBinghamton, Ithaca have lost 1,700 jobs combined

Feb. 2, 2012 |

Rochester, New York City and the Glens Falls areas did better than the state average, with Rochester recovering 98.1 percent of the jobs it lost. The report attributed Rochester's economic success to gains in professional and business services, but it warned that the recent bankruptcy of Eastman Kodak "could result in the loss of thousands of jobs."

While those numbers were generally positive, the average salaries of the jobs created in the past two years is more than 40 percent lower than the average salaries of the jobs lost during the recession.


Other findings
New York also has had the stigma of being unfriendly to business. The Tax Foundation, based in Washington D.C., last week named New York as having the 49th worst business climate in the nation -- ahead only of New Jersey.

"The combination of high property taxes, high income taxes, high corporate-income taxes and high sales taxes all create a toxic climate for attracting businesses and people in the state and keeping businesses and people in the state," said Scott Hodge, the group's president.

the governor apparently realizes this...

2/27 "the taxpayers are broke," said Cuomo. "And we can't keep raising taxes because we will continue to see businesses leave the state."

[spence]

Originally Posted by scottw

huh???
Report: N.Y. shows some economic gains, but recovery stallingBinghamton, Ithaca have lost 1,700 jobs combined

Feb. 2, 2012 |

Rochester, New York City and the Glens Falls areas did better than the state average, with Rochester recovering 98.1 percent of the jobs it lost. The report attributed Rochester's economic success to gains in professional and business services, but it warned that the recent bankruptcy of Eastman Kodak "could result in the loss of thousands of jobs."

While those numbers were generally positive, the average salaries of the jobs created in the past two years is more than 40 percent lower than the average salaries of the jobs lost during the recession.


Other findings
New York also has had the stigma of being unfriendly to business. The Tax Foundation, based in Washington D.C., last week named New York as having the 49th worst business climate in the nation -- ahead only of New Jersey.

"The combination of high property taxes, high income taxes, high corporate-income taxes and high sales taxes all create a toxic climate for attracting businesses and people in the state and keeping businesses and people in the state," said Scott Hodge, the group's president.

the governor apparently realizes this...

2/27 "the taxpayers are broke," said Cuomo. "And we can't keep raising taxes because we will continue to see businesses leave the state."

You didn't even read this did you?

-spence

[scottw]

Originally Posted by spence

You didn't even read this did you?

-spence

all of it

two years of job creation of jobs with salaries more than 40% lower on average than the jobs lost in a state with "high property taxes, high income taxes, high corporate-income taxes and high sales taxes all create a toxic climate for attracting businesses and people in the state and keeping businesses and people in the state"...and a pending pension nightmare

perfect formula for more people dependent on various government programs

[zimmy]

Originally Posted by scottw

with historically high underemployment (19% current U.S. Unemployment Up in February ) and historically low workforce participation and "tweaks" to how we've historically measured unemployment....there is ample "evidence that the labor market is worse than the jobs numbers "....much worse

Feeling little off Scott? You completely missed the point of my response, which was to the "compassion" issue. Even if your point is 100% true, it is pretty much irrelevant to my response to justplugit.

[zimmy]

By the way Scott, I like how you have grabbed the party line. Looks like the economy is lining up for an Obama win, so we better start talking about underemployment or a Harvard professor or something. Underemployment was a pretty big issue 3 or 4 years ago too. Didn't matter then, did it?

[scottw]

Originally Posted by zimmy

Feeling little off Scott? .

glad to see you're feeling really good Zim

[spence]

Originally Posted by scottw

all of it

two years of job creation of jobs with salaries more than 40% lower on average than the jobs lost in a state with "high property taxes, high income taxes, high corporate-income taxes and high sales taxes all create a toxic climate for attracting businesses and people in the state and keeping businesses and people in the state"...and a pending pension nightmare

perfect formula for more people dependent on various government programs

Just curious because it really had nothing to do with my remark other than validating Rochester is seeing a bit of a revival.

Unless you were just trying to be negative, which we've sort of come to expect so I guess it shouldn't be a surprise.

-spence

[scottw]

Originally Posted by spence

Just curious because it really had nothing to do with my remark other than validating Rochester is seeing a bit of a revival.

Unless you were just trying to be negative, which we've sort of come to expect so I guess it shouldn't be a surprise.

-spence

just reminded me of Biden declaring "recovery summer " two summers ago

[spence]

Originally Posted by scottw

just reminded me of Biden declaring "recovery summer " two summers ago

Are you saying things are not a lot better than they were 18 months ago?

-spence

[justplugit]

Originally Posted by zimmy

If it is a sensitive issue for you, don't use it in a political forum to back your political statements, which, as I have brought up before, seem to be based on your perceptions than reality.

No preceptions here, just backing up the MSN, MSNBC articles about the
fuzzy job growth #s with some personal knowledge based on fact.
My reality is based on being an average citizen rubbing elbows with the folks on the street everyday and listening to the discontent with the administration by most of the middle incomer's.
Sorry if those facts don't fit your reality.

[zimmy]

Originally Posted by justplugit

No preceptions here, just backing up the MSN, MSNBC articles about the
fuzzy job growth #s with some personal knowledge based on fact.
My reality is based on being an average citizen rubbing elbows with the folks on the street everyday and listening to the discontent with the administration by most of the middle incomer's.
Sorry if those facts don't fit your reality.

[scottw]

Originally Posted by zimmy

By the way Scott, I like how you have grabbed the party line. Looks like the economy is lining up for an Obama win, so we better start talking about underemployment or a Harvard professor or something. Underemployment was a pretty big issue 3 or 4 years ago too. Didn't matter then, did it?

President Obama is heading into the general election season on treacherous political ground, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

At a time of rising gas prices, heightened talk of war with Iran and setbacks in Afghanistan, Mr. Obama’s approval rating dropped substantially in recent weeks, the poll found, with 41 percent of respondents expressing approval of the job he is doing and 47 percent saying they disapprove — a dangerous position for any incumbent seeking re-election.


heh..heh

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/us...l.html?_r=2&hp