Liberal thoughts on debt

[Jim in CT]

I'm a numbers guy, so here is why I'm worried about debt and taxes...

Our federal debt is currently about $16 trillion. That excludes estimated shortfalls to social security and Medicare.

According to the attached link, MSNBC reports that the estimated shortfall for Social Security and Medicare is $31.5 trillion for the next 75 years (that's one of the lower estimates I've seen, but let's use it).

Medicare's deficit 7 times Social Security's - politics - msnbc.com

So, that's a total long term debt of 16 trillion + 31.5 trilion, which equals $47.5 trillion.

Are we addressing that today? Hell, no. Because of record-level spending and sluggish tax receipts, we are expected to add more than $1.3 trillion to the debt in 2012 (tax receipts of $2.5 trillion, spending of $3.8 trillion).

Historical Federal Receipt and Outlay Summary

There are 300 million Americans. That $47.5 trillion debt works out to $158,000 per person. That means that over the next 75 years, every single man, woman, and child needs to pay an additional $158,000 in federal taxes, ON TOP of current tax rates. And that's only if we assume the following...

- that every year for the next 75 years, the feds won't spend one cent more than they collect (which will never happen), and

- that we don't have to pay any interest on that debt (which we do), and

- if we assume that every cent of the additional taxes will be used to pay down that debt (which it will not).

This also ignores the staggering debt that is challenging most states and cities across the country.

There are 2 ways to address this. You can collect more tax dollars, or you can reduce benefits.

Obama likes to go on and on and on about eliminating the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy, which he says will increase tax revenue by $90 billion a year. Whoop-dee-do. That $90 billion represents a whopping 7 percent of the estimated 1.3 trillion shortfall for 2012 alone. Without cutting spending, we need 14 times that amount (14 x $90 billion equals $1.3 trillion) just to break even this year, not allowing for one cent extra to pay down the long-term debt. Inescapable conclusion? We can not, ever, ever, EVER, tax our way out of this.

How did we get into this mess? A generation of politicians has known, for decades, that this was coming (it's all because of the huge number of Baby Boomers, as well as advances in medical technology, which prolong life, but are very expensive)). But rather than make tough decisions, the politicians chose to ignore the problem, hoping that would increase their chances of getting re-elected.

Today, every once in a while, you see a politician with the intellectual honesty to admit the sad truth that these programs cannot continue at current benefit levels (Paul Ryan recently did this). When the politician (usually a Republican) says this, politicians from the other party (usually Democrats) make commercials of the honest politician, showing him pushing an old lady off a cliff. Liberals, in a well-known act, recently did exactly this to Paul Ryan. Liberal politicians and media personalities accused Ryan of not caring about the needs of the old and the poor. They accused Ryan of setting out to destroy Medicare and Social Security, when in fact what's destroying those programs, is 50 years of politicians who cared more about getting elected than they cared about making the tough decisions.

I'm curious what liberals here, like PaulS, Spence, Zimmy, and Likwid, think of this.

Do you guys disagree with my numbers? Do you disagree with the magnitude of the problem? Do you feel, like Obama seems to feel, that we can solve this by tweaking tax rates on a small number of very wealthy people?

I see this debt as a disgrace. I have 3 kids under the age of 6, and as of today, each of them owes $158,000 to the feds, on top of what they'd pay at current tax rates. No one asked them if it was OK befiore we spent that money.

The problem will get alleviated, somewhat, when the 2 wars end, and when the economy picks up steam. That will put a dent in our debt, but not a big dent. Not when we're adding $1 trillion a year to the problem.

Both parties got us into this mess. Only one party is talking about what needs to be done to get us out. Republicans talk about what needs to be done. Democrats point to those Republicans and say "See! I told you! He wants to do away with programs that help old people and sick people! Vote for me, keep that boogeyman out of Washington!"

The liberal position on this issue (i.e., keep spending more than we have and hope that the problem somehow goes away, and keep demonizing those who want to address the problem) is stupifying to me. It's so deranged, it's the main reason why I say liberalism is a mental disorder. I haven't seen a thoughtful post on this hugely importanmt issue, so I'm trying to start one.

How can the liberals here defend what the Democratic party, at the national level, is doing about this?

I fail to see how this doesn't end with astronomical tax rates for all. I have all of my savings (retirement and kids' college)in after-tax accounts, so they will be untouchable. I have zero doubt that will save me a fortune when I'm older. I'll pay my taxes now, not later. But I cannot stand the problem that we're leaving to our kids.

[justplugit]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

But I cannot stand the problem that we're leaving to our kids.

Neither can I. accept for the fact that we have a "me generation" that wants
it all, and wants it now. "Instant gratification" without counting the cost.
Selfcenterdness is the down fall of our society.

[JohnnyD]

Let's not forget that the IMF came out on the record to tell the US to "fix your economy now, worry about the debt later." Of course that mentality is coming from an organization headed by a socialist from France. You'd think that by looking out the window and seeing the debt fuse burning so close to the powder keg, those people in Europe would understand that kicking the can down the road doesn't actually make the debt go away.

These people are like 6 year olds who plug their ears and yell loudly and think that will fix their problem.

[Jim in CT]

PaulS, Zimmy, Spence? Anything?

[RIJIMMY]

looks like Jim in CT and a prominent democrat agree!
see, obama does bring peple together.

Erskine Bowles: 'We Are Going Over the Fiscal Cliff' - Yahoo! News

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

looks like Jim in CT and a prominent democrat agree!
see, obama does bring peple together.

Erskine Bowles: 'We Are Going Over the Fiscal Cliff' - Yahoo! News

RIJIMMY, first, it's very teling that Zimmy, Spence, PaulS, et al, added not one syllable to this.

Second, this is not about partisan politics. It's about two things...(1) understanding of basic mathematics, and (2) about pretending to care about the notion that we leave our kids a better world than that which we inherited from our parents.

Obama's solution? Tax the rich, which at best gets us a meaningless $85 billion a year, which will cut our annual deficit by less than 10%, nowhere near enough to put a dent in the debt.

We need to reduce our debt by trillions. Tens and tens of trillions. Obama acts as if his plan to tax the rich is all that stands between us and economic prosperity.

It's a farce, and it's obviously a farce. Un-questioning zombies will realize, too late, that they got played for suckers by Obama.

RIJIMMY, do what I'm doing...pay your taxes now, accumulate investments in after-tax accounts that the feds cannot touch. Tax rates will be astronomical when the house of cards comes down. The next crisis, what I call the "sovereign debt crisis", is coming...and it will make the subprime mortage crisis look like the roaring 20's.

Obama didn't create this particular mess, but he's doing nothing to fix it. He's trying to bamboozle those who worship him, into thinking that tweaking tax rates on the uber-wealthy is a serious solution. It is not.

The libs cannot say they haven't been warned.

As an aside...Obama appointed the Simpson-Bowles commission, then he promptly ignored everything they proposed. Why doesn't he catch any heat for that?

To quote singer John Fogerty...I see a bad moon risin'...The only peole who cannot see it are those who prefer to keep their heads in the sand...the same people who say that Paul Ryan wants to kill old people because he has the courage to say that Medicare needs to be fixed in order to be saved.

[spence]

Dude, I'm pulling 12 hour days. You're pretty low on my priority list
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by spence

Dude, I'm pulling 12 hour days. You're pretty low on my priority list
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

You have time to chime in that if Obama is talking about Bush, that's it's reasonable to assume he's being complimentary...

Spence, this post has nothing to do with me. It has to do with whether or not you believe in arithmetic, and if so, how do you defend Obama's unwillingness to address the most urgetn domestic crisis we are facing.

Your silence hear speaks volumes.

[scottw]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Your silence hear speaks volumes.

I find it refereshing ....and you should be grateful as it keeps your blood pressure down when he's not pushing all of your buttons....

love your passion Jim and you must have been great fun back when you were heavily armed

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

RIJIMMY, first, it's very teling that Zimmy, Spence, PaulS, et al, added not one syllable to this.

.

Get over yourself. You asked the same question a few weeks ago and I answered.

I think Zimmy (amongst others) has you on his ignore list.

[scottw]

I've noticed a trend among the users of the "ignore list"....I think they are generally the same people that claim to be the most open minded and tolerant

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by scottw

I find it refereshing ....and you should be grateful as it keeps your blood pressure down when he's not pushing all of your buttons....

love your passion Jim and you must have been great fun back when you were heavily armed

First, the die-hard liberals do not get my pressure up all that much. They are demonstrably wrong, and they can be frustrating, but in the end, all my money is in after-tax accounts and therefore cannot be touched when their liberal agenda collapses on top of us. When the apocalyose happens, I'll move my pile back into the stock market, and when it inevitably recovers, I'll have a nice gift to bequeath to my kids (as my way of apologizing for what our generation is currently doing to them). The way I see it, and I'm right, is that prepared people will all soon be presented with an astounding opportunity, similar to folks who were able to buy stocks in November 1929...they made a fortune.

So selfishly, I suppose I should be supporting the liberal agenda, because the inevitable results are going to help me and my family. But many won't be so lucky.

And I'm "better-armed" now. Back then, now matter how much gear and armor I had, I was plenty vulnerable. Today, in these political debates, it's impossible for me to lose, at least in terms of econmomics. My side may well lose this election, but that doesn't mean liberal economic policies are better solutions than conservative economic policies. I'm invulnerable here. Common sense, middle-school arithmetic, and actual reality (read: Europe, CT, MA, IL, CA) clearly show that tax-and-spend cannot work. It especially cannot work when huge numbers of baby-boomers are old, sick, and in need of trillions of dollars in medical care.

God help us, and may future generations somehow forgive us. Read the link that RIJIMMY provided, this is a leading Democrat who is saying we're in serious trouble. And all Obama does is tell us that I'm supposed to be afraid of Congressman Paul Ryan? That's Obama's idea of leadership?

I think I'll go put a few more bucks in my Roth IRA now...

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by scottw

I've noticed a trend among the users of the "ignore list"....I think they are generally the same people that claim to be the most open minded and tolerant

same reason the Dems walk out of every vote/discussion they cant win

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by scottw

I've noticed a trend among the users of the "ignore list"....I think they are generally the same people that claim to be the most open minded and tolerant

Prob. just tired of the insults

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by PaulS

Prob. just tired of the insults

PaulS, the problem is that many liberals are so defensive, so intolerant of dissent, that when conservatives take the time to demonstrate the numerous fallacies in the liberal agenda, liberals feel they have been insulted. Being shown that your ideology is seriously flawed, is not the same as being insulted.

Now, calling someone, say, a "tea bagging racist", now that's an insult. But no one here would do such a thing...

[JohnnyD]

I'm currently running a client conference hosted by a big medical SaaS company. It's for C-level clients of hospitals, Dr's offices and other medical practices and addresses current trends in medical billing, expenses and collection.

One person presenting yesterday morning had a slide that was pretty telling with numbers that come from the Congressional Budget Office...


Basically, since 1970 (and well before) average tax revenue collected by Uncle Scam has been between 16% and 20% of GDP with an average of 18%.

Taking that into consideration along with current trends, in 30 years entitlement spending related to healthcare is on track to exceed the revenue collected by Uncle Scam. That leaves $0 available for all other functions of government.

It is obvious that current spending trends are unsustainable. Unfortunately, politicians on both sides of the aisle continue to kick the can down the road because neither want to be responsible for cutting programs or boosting taxes.

The above is one more reason on the list of how the US economy is primed for massive collapse. Just one more reason why I continue to hedge against the US$ with precious metals and other commodities.

[PaulS]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

PaulS, the problem is that many liberals are so defensive, so intolerant of dissent, that when conservatives take the time to demonstrate the numerous fallacies in the liberal agenda, liberals feel they have been insulted. Being shown that your ideology is seriously flawed, is not the same as being insulted.

Now, calling someone, say, a "tea bagging racist", now that's an insult. But no one here would do such a thing...

Jim, read this twice b/c I've told you about 15 times and you still don't get it - when I use that it is ALWAYS in response to your hatred, insults and pettyness. It is actually funny to read some of your comments esp. after you hold your self up as such a great Christian and feel it necessary to actually post that. It has nothing to do with being defensive. It is the insults that you constantly spew here.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by JohnnyD

I'm currently running a client conference hosted by a big medical SaaS company. It's for C-level clients of hospitals, Dr's offices and other medical practices and addresses current trends in medical billing, expenses and collection.

One person presenting yesterday morning had a slide that was pretty telling with numbers that come from the Congressional Budget Office...


Basically, since 1970 (and well before) average tax revenue collected by Uncle Scam has been between 16% and 20% of GDP with an average of 18%.

Taking that into consideration along with current trends, in 30 years entitlement spending related to healthcare is on track to exceed the revenue collected by Uncle Scam. That leaves $0 available for all other functions of government.

It is obvious that current spending trends are unsustainable. Unfortunately, politicians on both sides of the aisle continue to kick the can down the road because neither want to be responsible for cutting programs or boosting taxes.

The above is one more reason on the list of how the US economy is primed for massive collapse. Just one more reason why I continue to hedge against the US$ with precious metals and other commodities.

Great exhibit.

"Unfortunately, politicians on both sides of the aisle continue to kick the can down the road "

Yes, there are Democrats and Republicans who won't dare utter anything about this, because they are too comcerned about getting re-elected. However, there are some politicians who are honest enough to talk about reform, and virtually all of them are Republicans. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin comes to mind, he proposed a plan to cut trillions from entitlement spending. What was the Democratic response? They put out a commercial showing Ryan pushing an old lady off a cliff. How's that for honest debate...

The tea party republicans are certainly not perfect, but they are 100% correct on this issue. Almost no one from the Democratic party admits that massive reform is needed.

"Just one more reason why I continue to hedge against the US$ with precious metals and other commodities"

That's a great pearl of wisdom for all of us to follow.

This is the most predictable, avoidable collapse in our history. Actuaries have been forecasting this since the baby boomers were in elementary school. And we have done nothing to correct it, meaning we'll leave a huge mess for our kids...