Hate To Say I Was Right But........ - Striper Talk Striped Bass Fishing, Surfcasting, Boating

BigFish · 12-01-2008, 09:19 PM

It has officially been determined that we are in a recession........and have been since December 2007!!! Guess, as I speculated earlier, they were just afraid to use the word!

spence · 12-01-2008, 10:48 PM

The positive spin is that this means we're going through the worst of it right now...how long it lingers is the issue.

-spence

RIJIMMY · 12-02-2008, 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spence

The positive spin is that this means we're going through the worst of it right now...how long it lingers is the issue.

-spence

what is your guess on what will bring us out of this? Good Holiday sales? A sudden drop in unemployment? What makes you think this is the worst of it? Wait until severances, COBRA, etc run out for all those recently unemployed...... we have a lot farther to go before we hit bottom.

spence · 12-02-2008, 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

what is your guess on what will bring us out of this? Good Holiday sales? A sudden drop in unemployment? What makes you think this is the worst of it? Wait until severances, COBRA, etc run out for all those recently unemployed...... we have a lot farther to go before we hit bottom.

God you're negative. Recessions (hell, even depressions) don't last forever. This looks to be a big global recession that will likely last for a good part of 2009. Everything cycles, this is no different.

-spence

RIJIMMY · 12-02-2008, 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spence

God you're negative. Recessions (hell, even depressions) don't last forever. This looks to be a big global recession that will likely last for a good part of 2009. Everything cycles, this is no different.

-spence

Hmm, Greece, Rome, Egypt, England.....all empires eventually fall. Is this our time?

Raven · 12-02-2008, 09:39 AM

no friggan way...

it's a transitional period where we finally tell the big 3
where to get off.... for one...

it's a time of "green" change

the greening of America you could say....

we haven't even scratched the surface technologically

RIJIMMY · 12-02-2008, 09:51 AM

theres no money in green, only expense. Technology? that will be India and China.
Just look at the news....all you see is the government spending, its spending because companies have no money, soon, the governement will have no money and no credit. Why would investors put $ in a country that is in debt? Money will go to India, China and other emerging markets.

The Dad Fisherman · 12-02-2008, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

Hmm, Greece, Rome, Egypt, England.....all empires eventually fall. Is this our time?

Funny..thought the same thing awhile back....

BigFish · 12-02-2008, 10:17 AM

We have not seen the worst of it by any stretch and I don't mean to be gloom and doom here but with years end upon us we will see corporations trimming the fat.....layoffs are coming in accordance with the poor economy! Not to mention the auto industry will be laying off as they restructure their failing corporations....bail out or not that is going to happen!

Raven · 12-02-2008, 10:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Dad Fisherman

Funny..thought the same thing awhile back....

ya can't believe what this lil piss ant thinks....

his time is coming....

Raven · 12-02-2008, 10:40 AM

the technology is already here.... frig china

investors are not needed

i know what your saying....tho

but
it's a matter of utilizing what we already know how to do
but haven't had the need to use it - til now.

President elect Obama

seeks your counsel

The Dad Fisherman · 12-02-2008, 10:42 AM

I don't believe anything that nitwit says.....It was just something I thought about in passing.

Raven · 12-02-2008, 10:47 AM

yep but it addresses the whole Nostradamus prediction thing...

likwid · 12-02-2008, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raven

yep but it addresses the whole Nostradamus prediction thing...

I prefer tea leaves.

RIJIMMY · 12-02-2008, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Dad Fisherman

I don't believe anything that nitwit says.....It was just something I thought about in passing.

thats not nice to say about me.

The Dad Fisherman · 12-02-2008, 11:09 AM

Nah...that not true....Sometimes I believe what you say

Back Beach · 12-02-2008, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigFish

It has officially been determined that we are in a recession........and have been since December 2007!!! Guess, as I speculated earlier, they were just afraid to use the word!

Economists typically call recessions looking backwards with past data. This time is no different. The long term economic cycle typically has 5 years of expansion followed by two years or so of pullback.
Yeah, we entered a recession 13 months ago, no surprise here. The market recovery usually precedes main street recovery by six months or so. If any of this holds true, it will be roughly mid summer before we pull out market wise and begin a new uptrend, and this time next year when RI Jimmy starts buying stocks again...

Don't any of you guys remember 2001-2003? It wasn't all that long ago things were real ugly, followed by a five year growth spurt.

Nebe · 12-02-2008, 12:00 PM

uggg.

Raven · 12-02-2008, 12:04 PM

no more Tuna in 5 years either

all gone to Sushi

BigFish · 12-02-2008, 12:34 PM

I agree Back Beach! I see things being worse between now and April.....the worst will be between New Years and when Obama takes office......I can see the stock market in the 7000 range for a period and mortgage rates going below 5% before the upturn. Mind you between Jan.1 and the 18th is about the time they make a decision on the "bailout" for the automakers and if it goes through it will send the market down hard! Watch!

EarnedStripes44 · 12-02-2008, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raven

no more Tuna in 5 years either

all gone to Sushi

the waters off Somalia abound with Tuna. Thats the silver lining in all this piracy stuff. The factory trawlers stay away.

EarnedStripes44 · 12-02-2008, 01:08 PM

...and industrial purse seiners

striperman36 · 12-02-2008, 01:13 PM

it's not going to be pretty either way until at least 100 days after the 20th. So that makes it for me time to be fishing again.
Maybe gas will be under a buck a gallon so I can afford it, since I may not qualify for that WPA job.

RIJIMMY · 12-02-2008, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Back Beach

:
Don't any of you guys remember 2001-2003? It wasn't all that long ago things were real ugly, followed by a five year growth spurt.

yes, but then, the downturn was fueled by the terrorism threat. Basically a perception issue and consumer confidence. Today, this is not a perception issue, we have NEVER had a 700+ billion bailout package. We have not had this many housing forclosures. Even Roosevelts New Deal, had some tangible output, can anyone say they know what the 700 billion has done? No.
The past 10+ years we have built an economy on credit. Home loans, auto loans, credit cards. That bubble has burst. It is an absolute fact, this is not from CNN, but from senior investment analysis that our housing market is still 15-18% overvalued. If that continues to correct itself, you will see a doubling of the problems we have today. Doubling! 2009 will see many, many more layoffs.

RIJIMMY · 12-02-2008, 01:16 PM

give this a read
We are "solving" the symptoms by increasing the problem. Its like feeding a fat kid candy to lose weight.
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/arti...eyhappy/124971

RIJIMMY · 12-02-2008, 01:18 PM

Hows this make you feel....

The head of a new Congressional panel set up to monitor the gigantic federal bailout says the government still does not seem to have a coherent strategy for easing the financial crisis, despite the billions it has already spent in that effort.

Elizabeth Warren, the chairwoman of the oversight panel, said in an interview Monday that the government instead seemed to be lurching from one tactic to the next without clarifying how each step fits into an overall plan.

we are wasting bbbbbbbbbillions of YOUR money.

striperman36 · 12-02-2008, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

Hows this make you feel....

The head of a new Congressional panel set up to monitor the gigantic federal bailout says the government still does not seem to have a coherent strategy for easing the financial crisis, despite the billions it has already spent in that effort.

Elizabeth Warren, the chairwoman of the oversight panel, said in an interview Monday that the government instead seemed to be lurching from one tactic to the next without clarifying how each step fits into an overall plan.

we are wasting bbbbbbbbbillions of YOUR money.

You want fries with that?

She's right, there is no coherent plan of action, nor will their be one from those lameducks.

Oh, and Bush is 'so sorry' this is happening.

BigFish · 12-02-2008, 01:47 PM

Only 10 years we have built an economy on credit?? Try for the past 40-50 years.....just the last 20 they have been handing it out to anyone who will wait in line! Now if you wait in line they are handing out cold, hard cash!!!

Back Beach · 12-02-2008, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

yes, but then, the downturn was fueled by the terrorism threat. Basically a perception issue and consumer confidence. Today, this is not a perception issue, we have NEVER had a 700+ billion bailout package. We have not had this many housing forclosures. Even Roosevelts New Deal, had some tangible output, can anyone say they know what the 700 billion has done? No.
The past 10+ years we have built an economy on credit. Home loans, auto loans, credit cards. That bubble has burst. It is an absolute fact, this is not from CNN, but from senior investment analysis that our housing market is still 15-18% overvalued. If that continues to correct itself, you will see a doubling of the problems we have today. Doubling! 2009 will see many, many more layoffs.

Good points and I agree. I also look at the pessimism which usually accomodates market bottoms. Not sure its peaked yet, but its getting there.

Ever read Peter Lynch's book where he refers to the Mayan empire? They continually look backwards and worry about the same problems recurring, only to be impacted by something completely different? They built homes in the trees and suffered through fire.....then built homes in rock to avert fire, but were then destroyed by earthquakes....built homes near water to avert earthquakes, but were destoyed by floods, etc. I think he concludes by saying the "next big anything" usually turns out to be something different. In other words, this won't be the next 1929, but something different.
You mention perception and consumer confidence being factors in the early 90's. These two things have a lot to do with the current mire we're in now, too. Commercial lending is actually up over the last year according to a report one of my financial planners forwarded me. Consumers will follow at some point.

spence · 12-02-2008, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

theres no money in green, only expense. Technology? that will be India and China.
Just look at the news....all you see is the government spending, its spending because companies have no money, soon, the governement will have no money and no credit. Why would investors put $ in a country that is in debt? Money will go to India, China and other emerging markets.

Wrong on all counts.

1) There is a ton of cash out there held by investors too afraid to risk it. When people have real solutions to solve the world's gigantic energy needs they will invest and make a killing.

2) The government already has no money.

3) The United States has the best IP protection, legal system and innovative culture in the world. This isn't going to change in the next 20-30 years regardless of what China and India do.

Investors abroad still see the US Dollar as a lower risk currency, even with our trillions in debt. It's because for the near future well still are the heart of the global economy.

-spence