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Political Threads This section is for Political Threads - Enter at your own risk. If you say you don't want to see what someone posts - don't read it :hihi:

 
 
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Old 07-27-2018, 08:51 AM   #1
Jim in CT
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GDP growth for the second quarter was +4.1%, second highest in 15 years

Let's hear why this really isn't all that beneficial.

Let me guess. Because of racisthatecrimeintolerant, and also because of shut up.

And for some reason, Paul Krugman (who said the US economy would not survive a Trump presidency), still gets paid to offer his opinions, and people still choose to believe he has a speck of credibility. If anyone can explain that, then in all sincerity, I'm willing to listen. Because what would it take, exactly, for people to conclude he just doesn't know what he's talking about, if this didn't convince people of that?

My dim-witted dog could walk into a Chick Fil A today, and walk out as an assistant manager, that's how good the employment situation is right now.

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Old 07-27-2018, 09:39 AM   #2
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"Enjoy the 2Q GDP number, which may be the last best print for a while," wrote Andrew Sheets, a strategist with Mortgage Stanley, in a note to clients over the weekend. "We think that 2H will follow a different storyline, with decelerating growth and rising inflation across major regions."
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Old 07-27-2018, 09:40 AM   #3
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analysts also warn that the exuberance might be short-lived, since the quarter's big numbers will also reflect a rush to stock up on supplies and move inventory in case a trade war makes them more expensive.
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Old 07-27-2018, 09:40 AM   #4
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That's what you wanted right?
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Old 07-27-2018, 09:47 AM   #5
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good but impacted by early purchases bf the tariffs took effect.
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Old 07-27-2018, 10:20 AM   #6
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"Enjoy the 2Q GDP number, which may be the last best print for a while," wrote Andrew Sheets, a strategist with Mortgage Stanley, in a note to clients over the weekend. "We think that 2H will follow a different storyline, with decelerating growth and rising inflation across major regions."
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What's 2H?

I can post remarks from 10 analysts who think it's great. Anyone can search the internet to find someone who posted something they agree with. That doesn't mean the guy is right.

We are due for a recession, no doubt. That's not anyone's fault, it's the normal thing to occur after the significant growth since 09. If anything, Trump gets more credit if he's growing the economy despite facing a recession headwind.

A correction in the market is coming. I have stop-loss orders in place for everything I own, one kicked in yesterday for Facebook, not soon enough...first time I ever had one kick in...
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Old 07-27-2018, 10:46 AM   #7
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Thanks Obama
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Old 07-27-2018, 10:48 AM   #8
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I know GDP Growth is Good for the economy

1) but is it sustainable ? and down side

2) how does it help people like us on this site (outside investments we may or may not have ) Seeing wages are stale interest rates are up and deficits are all time High and the threat of inflation always around the corner

4) what is Tax Revenue % is in the 4.1 GDP


I prefer the The Tortoise and the Hare: or something in the middle when it comes to the economy
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Old 07-27-2018, 10:52 AM   #9
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Thanks Obama
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So when does Trump own the results in your mind? As soon as the recession starts?
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Old 07-27-2018, 10:58 AM   #10
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I know GDP Growth is Good for the economy

1) but is it sustainable ? and down side

2) how does it help people like us on this site (outside investments we may or may not have ) Seeing wages are stale interest rates are up and deficits are all time High and the threat of inflation always around the corner

4) what is Tax Revenue % is in the 4.1 GDP


I prefer the The Tortoise and the Hare: or something in the middle when it comes to the economy
"1) but is it sustainable ? and down side "

I don't know I fit's sustainable, it doesn't usually increase at 4% for long.

What's the downside? Can you tell me? Is there any benefit to less growth in GDP?


") how does it help people like us on this site (outside investments we may or may not have )"

Most of us have money in the stock market in some form (401k, IRA, pension). When the economy grows, the feds get more tax revenue than when the economy shrinks, which means more money to fund SS and Medicare. I can't see how most people don't benefit in some way.

"Seeing wages are stale "
If wages are stale, jobs ar eat least more secure than when the economy is doing poorly. Isn't that stability, or confidence, worth something?

"rates are up"

Interest rates had nowhere to go but up.

"deficits are all time High "

Ummm. is that true? Deficits are higher than Obama's deficits? The debt is at an all time high, I don't know about deficits...


You went on and on and on about the potential pitfalls. You're desperate for reasons to show that the economy isn't as healthy as some claim it is. Rooting for failure, I guess.

Don't worry, be patient, the recession is coming, and you can blame Trump.
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Old 07-27-2018, 11:30 AM   #11
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So when does Trump own the results in your mind? As soon as the recession starts?
Yep
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Old 07-27-2018, 11:48 AM   #12
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Jim, since we like analogies here and given that you often seem high 😀 (just kidding, couldn't resist) here is one that explains why I have concerns about his economic policies and am not jumping up and down: Trump's policies are like snorting coke. The first few minutes of the high are not the time to evaluate the net effects of snorting coke.
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Old 07-27-2018, 01:39 PM   #13
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Jim, since we like analogies here and given that you often seem high �� (just kidding, couldn't resist) here is one that explains why I have concerns about his economic policies and am not jumping up and down: Trump's policies are like snorting coke. The first few minutes of the high are not the time to evaluate the net effects of snorting coke.
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OK, you compare it to snorting coke, you think it's a short term pump and dump.

But why? Why do you think it's something that won't last? What is he doing, exactly, that's going to fizzle out, and then disappear, only to leave us with a bad hangover?

I know that you want that to happen so that he looks bad, I get that. But why do you think that's going to happen?

In my opinion, if Hilary was POTUS and she did the same exact things, you'd say she was an economic genius. That's my issue with liberals.
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Old 07-27-2018, 02:42 PM   #14
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OK, you compare it to snorting coke, you think it's a short term pump and dump.

But why? Why do you think it's something that won't last? What is he doing, exactly, that's going to fizzle out, and then disappear, only to leave us with
I know that you want that to happen so that he looks bad, I get that. But why do you think that's going to happen?
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I am not sure why you think you know what I want. I am hardly liberal. I am moderate. I loved Reagan as a kid. I was terrified when Bush 1 lost reelection. Clinton was scum, but his policies were moderate and generally on point and I grew to be ok with all the non scum bag stuff. Bush 2 was an idiot and took us to war over oil against his father's advice and he had morons in Rumsfeld and Cheney who pushed his buttons and the reasons for war during lead up to it changed every time they turned out to be bogus. Yes I think Trump's policies are stupid. He lies to people in coal country about the cause of their job losses, he mortgaged the future and hardly changed the path of the middle class when the economy was already strong. History shows such policy leads to short term burst in the economy, but then fizzles and stalls with inflation. Add in his tariffs and unless you are a partisan fool or a person trying to buy votes can see they are totally policies and a few months of numbers aren't enough to measure the net effects. If the country ends up worse off as a result, that is bad. If Hillary elected similar policies, I would be saying I think it is stupid and regardless too soon to think my camper was covered, especially in a state like CT and especially before a full year under the tax policies.

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Old 07-27-2018, 03:05 PM   #15
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I am not sure why you think you know what I want. I am hardly liberal. I am moderate. I loved Reagan as a kid. I was terrified when Bush 1 lost reelection. Clinton was scum, but his policies were moderate and generally on point and I grew to be ok with all the non scum bag stuff. Bush 2 was an idiot and took us to war over oil against his father's advice and he had morons in Rumsfeld and Cheney who pushed his buttons and the reasons for war during lead up to it changed every time they turned out to be bogus. Yes I think Trump's policies are stupid. He lies to people in coal country about the cause of their job losses, he mortgaged the future and hardly changed the path of the middle class when the economy was already strong. History shows such policy leads to short term burst in the economy, but then fizzles and stalls with inflation. Add in his tariffs and unless you are a partisan fool or a person trying to buy votes can see they are totally policies and a few months of numbers aren't enough to measure the net effects. If the country ends up worse off as a result, that is bad. If Hillary elected similar policies, I would be saying I think it is stupid and regardless too soon to think my camper was covered, especially in a state like CT and especially before a full year under the tax policies.
"I am not sure why you think you know what I want"

For starters, when you learned that the GDP growth was the second highest in 15 years, your reaction was to launch a campaign of information on why that's not really a good thing. I read your posts. They aren't ambiguous.

"I am hardly liberal"

you say so...

"Clinton was scum, but his policies were moderate and generally on point "

Agreed. Especially his economic policy, which consisted of signing the budgets that Newt Gingrich crafted., and then getting all the credit for the amazing results.

"Bush 2 was an idiot and took us to war over oil "

Not close to true, it's a cherished chant of the left. Sorry, not that you are a liberal.

Tell the AIDS victims in Africa who are alive thanks to Bush's AIDS plan, over one million human beings, that he was an idiot. Educated at Yale and Harvard, which are the credentials people use to convince me how smart Obama was. Meh.

"hardly changed the path of the middle class "

He has done more for the middle class than his predecessor. Tax cuts and lower unemployment, more job security...


"History shows such policy leads to short term burst in the economy, but then fizzles and stalls with inflation"

You still aren't specifying which "policies" are historically shown to cause more pain than they cure. You seem like someone who wants to say "his policies are bad" again and again, until we all accept that it's true. You can't just say "his policies will cause short term gain and long term pain". How about some support for that statement? You got anything?

"If Hillary elected similar policies, I would be saying I think it is stupid "

You say so.

That post was a lot of fizz, short on gin.
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Old 07-27-2018, 03:07 PM   #16
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It took about 2 years after Reagan's second tax cut on the wealthy until start of a recession and about 2 1/2 for Bush 2.
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Also, you asked why, I gave you investor concerns. Those weren't my opinions. You want to know why anyone might have concern, that is why. The high from the cocaine doesn't mean the cocaine is a great idea.

But the way, you keep asking us how this is bad, we respond. That is different then us just coming out and saying they are bad policies. You want us to agree with you so you can feel good about yourself. Find another source than this forum if you need your ego stoked.

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Old 07-27-2018, 03:14 PM   #17
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The announcement Friday that America’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter of this year was immediately seized on by President Trump to promote the benefits of the tax cuts he signed into law and his other economic policies.

But despite the good news now, the U.S. economy is unlikely to look so good on Election Day on Nov. 6 – and that could spell trouble for Republicans.


President Trump and congressional Republicans are counting on a strong economy to help them hold onto their majorities in the U.S. House and Senate in the midterm elections, when the party in the White House typically loses seats.

"These numbers are very sustainable,” the president said, sounding an optimistic note. “This isn't a one-time shot. ... Next quarter, I think it's going to be outstanding.”

The growth in GDP in the second quarter was nearly double the previous quarter’s growth and the strongest level in four years. But the strong numbers are marginally lower than many anticipated.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting 4.2 percent growth. The Wall Street Journal had predicted a rate of growth as high as 4.5 percent. And President Trump suggested earlier the growth of GDP could hit 4.8 percent.

In the game of expectations, any underperformance could spell disaster for Republican chances to hold their congressional majorities in November.

Importantly, the Congressional Budget Office and Federal Reserve both say they expect the strong second quarter growth will not last. They believe the economy will stagnate in the coming years.

This is because the growth we saw in the second quarter was powered by one-time factors that will not occur again.

Economists have collectively agreed that the coming quarters will see far slower growth for two central reasons.

The first argument that growth is unsustainable is the disproportionate amount of exports the U.S. had in the second quarter. Companies abroad were buying U.S. products as fast they could in an attempt to avoid being hit by retaliatory tariffs foreign nations imposed on America after President Trump slapped tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum, along with products from China.

President Trump has also threatened to impose more tariffs on more products imported into the U.S., leading to fears that a full-scale global trade war will pit America against nations around the world.

The increase in U.S. exports unquestionably raised the GDP in the second quarter – but because the increase was temporary, its benefits will not last.

In fact, the second quarter increase in exports is actually a red flag warning of trouble ahead. After purchasing so much from the U.S. in the second quarter, foreign nations will be importing less in the current quarter because they will be using up what they have already bought and stockpiled.

Another reason that our GDP growth is unsustainable is that the increase in consumer spending in the second quarter won’t last.

According to Robert Murphy, an associate professor of economics at Boston College: "You can pump up demand in the short term – that's what a tax cut does. But you can't sustain it because you're not going to have the resources to keep pushing at that rate."

Essentially, a tax cut makes people feel temporarily wealthier, so they spend more when they see they are paying less in taxes. But this instant affluence fades as people develop a more conscientious grasp on their income and eventually spending decreases, returning to a normal pattern.

These factors all spell trouble for the economy and Republicans as we approach the midterm elections.

In June I argued that if the Republicans are to hold onto control of the Senate and House in November they must convince voters the GOP will do a better job managing the nation’s economy. But if economic growth is not sustained and wages remain stagnant, Republicans will have a hard time running on an economic platform.

An increase of 4.1 percent in GDP is surely something to be proud of, but if this growth slows, President Trump will not be able to validate his immense tax cuts and increasing deficit spending.

In fact, the third quarter’s growth percentage will be released at the end of October – just a week before the midterm elections take place. If the increase in GDP is much lower than expected, Republicans run the risk of losing key voters who were promised a consistently strong and expanding economy due to the tax cuts supported by Republicans and opposed by congressional Democrats.

And you can be sure that Democrats will remind voters that the tax cuts will push up America’s budget deficit to an estimated $804 billion this year. Even after economic factors are considered, the deficit will balloon well past $1 trillion and continue growing at an alarming rate in the years ahead. This will force the federal government to spend billions of dollars more just to pay interest on the ballooning national debt.

If wages do not rise and hardworking Americans fail to see continuous and tangible positive economic impacts, they will certainly have something to say come November – and what they say at the ballot box will not be good news for President Trump and Republicans.

Douglas E. Schoen is a Fox News contributor. He has more than 30 years experience as a pollster and political consultant. His new book is "Putin's Master Plan".. Follow him on Twitter @DouglasESchoen.

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Old 07-27-2018, 03:58 PM   #18
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Pete, as I said, anyone can find someone who writes a piece that makes a point you are trying to make. I can post 25 articles saying that the GDP growth means Trump is a genius. That doesn't make it so.

I do find Schoen to be thoughtful and not blindly partisan, though he is a liberal, a Clinton colleague.

He said one thing that was dead on. When the next quarter's growth comes out, it will be just before the midterms, and it will matter. If growth is north of 3.5%, what will the democrats say about the economy? What can they even pretend to promise? More and more free stuff? That seems to be their plan...
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Old 07-27-2018, 04:02 PM   #19
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It took about 2 years after Reagan's second tax cut on the wealthy until start of a recession and about 2 1/2 for Bush 2.
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Also, you asked why, I gave you investor concerns. Those weren't my opinions. You want to know why anyone might have concern, that is why. The high from the cocaine doesn't mean the cocaine is a great idea.

But the way, Also, you asked why, I gave you investor concerns. That is different then us just coming out and saying they are bad policies. You want us to agree with you so you can feel good about yourself. Find another source than this forum if you need your ego stoked.
"It took about 2 years after Reagan's second tax cut on the wealthy until start of a recession and about 2 1/2 for Bush 2."

And you provided exactly zero evidence that the tax cuts caused the recession. Maybe they helped delay the recession, maybe it made the recession less bad. I don't know. Neither do you. Obama also cut taxes, maybe those will be the cause of the next recession?

"Also, you asked why, I gave you investor concerns"

An article written by someone that neither of us has ever heard of.

I've never actually heard, until now, that high GDP growth was bad. If your pay or net worth increases, that's a bad sign?
What I see, are people who are so desperate to make this guy look bad, that if he says "two and two are four", you'd disagree.
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Old 07-27-2018, 04:29 PM   #20
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I've never actually heard, until now, that high GDP growth was bad. If your pay or net worth increases, that's a bad sign?
Because it's not healthy growth. The GDP is being driven mostly by foreign purchases of US goods in advance of the tariffs. Why? Because soon they're not going to be buying as much of our stuff.

Small and mid-sized businesses can't buffer this kind of whiplash, they're just going to fold.
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Old 07-27-2018, 04:54 PM   #21
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"It took about 2 years after Reagan's second tax cut on the wealthy until start of a recession and about 2 1/2 for Bush 2."

And you provided exactly zero evidence that the tax cuts caused the recession. Maybe they helped delay the recession, maybe it made the recession less bad. I don't know. Neither do you. Obama also cut taxes, maybe those will be the cause of the next recession?

"Also, you asked why, I gave you investor concerns"

An article written by someone that neither of us has ever heard of.

I've never actually heard, until now, that high GDP growth was bad. If your pay or net worth increases, that's a bad sign?
What I see, are people who are so desperate to make this guy look bad, that if he says "two and two are four", you'd disagree.
You see what you want to see. I am starting to waste time with you again so forgive when I stop responding. Obama also cut payroll taxes and slightly raised the top marginal income tax rates. Clinton raised it too. In both cases they were followed by steady long term economic growth. I specifically referred to top rates. KO3blpb gets a wait and see at best from me based on the reality of how this worked in the past, not a reach around like you want to give him.
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Old 07-27-2018, 06:20 PM   #22
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Because it's not healthy growth. The GDP is being driven mostly by foreign purchases of US goods in advance of the tariffs. Why? Because soon they're not going to be buying as much of our stuff.

Small and mid-sized businesses can't buffer this kind of whiplash, they're just going to fold.
what would gdp growth have been, if not for the one time run up in purchases of us giids. and if trump and the eu agreed to work toward zero tariffs, then what are the tariffs that everyone is so afraid of, that they’re stockpiling today.

businesses can’t survuve a one time surge in demand? even if that’s what this is, which is a bug if, it’s better that the surge in demand never happened? how does that make sense? i can’t win piwetball every year, that doesn’t mean it’s bad if i win once.
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Old 07-27-2018, 06:23 PM   #23
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You see what you want to see. I am starting to waste time with you again so forgive when I stop responding. Obama also cut payroll taxes and slightly raised the top marginal income tax rates. Clinton raised it too. In both cases they were followed by steady long term economic growth. I specifically referred to top rates. KO3blpb gets a wait and see at best from me based on the reality of how this worked in the past, not a reach around like you want to give him.
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yes, clinton and obama’s tax cuts were followed by growth. how do you know, how could you know, that trumps cuts won’t also be followed by growth? the answer, is because you are the one who sees what he wants to see, and with trump in charge, what you want to see us trump failure. we may go into a recession tomorrow, we might grow for five more years . you don’t know. but you’re assuming we won’t.
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Old 07-28-2018, 08:52 AM   #24
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I know GDP Growth is Good for the economy

1) but is it sustainable ? and down side
Sustainable over decades? Hopefully. Sustainable quarter to quarter? No.

Obama stated 2% growth was probably the new normal and we should get used to it. He hit 3% one or two quarters IIRC. GDP growth averaged 3.6% from WW2 to the Great Recession. Some years were very high some were lean. Be nice to get back on the high 3s rather than the low 2s.

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2) how does it help people like us on this site (outside investments we may or may not have ) Seeing wages are stale interest rates are up and deficits are all time High and the threat of inflation always around the corner
Interest rates have been artificially low for a decade - they should have gone up (hate that thought) previously. Wayne - on the outside if the economy is slow people are not working - think of 2008-2011 how bad it was.

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4) what is Tax Revenue % is in the 4.1 GDP
A lot more than if GDP was 3, or 2

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I prefer the The Tortoise and the Hare: or something in the middle when it comes to the economy


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I am not sure why you think you know what I want. I am hardly liberal. I am moderate.
Then how are you and I both moderates ; ) ?

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Old 07-28-2018, 09:10 AM   #25
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Obama stated 2% growth was probably the new normal and we should get used to it. He hit 3% one or two quarters IIRC.
Under Obama we hit over 4 several times and one quarter over 5.
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Old 07-28-2018, 12:35 PM   #26
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Then how are you and I both moderates ; ) ?
Based on your posts, it seems to me you have shifted more and more right over the last decade. You are anti Obama and his policies, particularly economy, were mostly moderate. I would have pegged you as more tea party than moderate. Socially I am liberal or libertarian in that I don't want people like Jim deciding what is right for other people or the correct family values. Pretty sure it is moderate to think we need border control, but not a billions of dollars ineffective wall. It is moderate to believe the people coming are generally good people in terrible situations and not the b.s. that they are rapists, murders, etc. Ya know, pretty much the same things Reagan believed. I think tax cuts are best focused on the middle class and that payroll tax cuts are particularly helpful. Top tax rates shouldn't be 90 or 70 percent, but cutting top tax rates, which were relatively low, during a strong economy is not necessarily smart policy. And yes I am liberal orelated to fishing in that I have been angry for 12 years at the rate people kill big fish because it is stupid and harmful and generally done to stroke the egos of the insecure.
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Old 07-28-2018, 12:46 PM   #27
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yes, clinton and obama’s tax cuts were followed by growth. how do you know, how could you know, that trumps cuts won’t also be followed by growth? the answer, is because you are the one who sees what he wants to see,
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Steady long term economic growth is what I said. How do I know Trump's won't be? I don't but his tax bill was not the type that typically followed by sustained growth. I said wait and see. How could I see the results when it has only been a few months? I shouldn't have used the cocaine analogy with you, it should have been lsd since you seem to be hallucinating and see things that haven't happened yet.
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No, no, no. we’re 30… 30, three zero.
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Old 07-28-2018, 01:04 PM   #28
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"1) but is it sustainable ? and down side "

I don't know I fit's sustainable, it doesn't usually increase at 4% for long.

What's the downside? Can you tell me? Is there any benefit to less growth in GDP?


") how does it help people like us on this site (outside investments we may or may not have )"

Most of us have money in the stock market in some form (401k, IRA, pension). When the economy grows, the feds get more tax revenue than when the economy shrinks, which means more money to fund SS and Medicare. I can't see how most people don't benefit in some way.

"Seeing wages are stale "
If wages are stale, jobs ar eat least more secure than when the economy is doing poorly. Isn't that stability, or confidence, worth something?

"rates are up"

Interest rates had nowhere to go but up.

"deficits are all time High "

Ummm. is that true? Deficits are higher than Obama's deficits? The debt is at an all time high, I don't know about deficits...


You went on and on and on about the potential pitfalls. You're desperate for reasons to show that the economy isn't as healthy as some claim it is. Rooting for failure, I guess.

Don't worry, be patient, the recession is coming, and you can blame Trump.

All I am saying you and others are all giddy about the Numbers which now seem to mean something now Trump is in office

As I said out side of 401k or investments ... I have not seen how this trickles down to regular Americans Paychecks.. not then or now so who is really making out?


Seem's benefits of a booming GDP the windfalls are not as easy as GDP potential pitfalls to List
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Old 07-28-2018, 02:31 PM   #29
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Don't know if it's been stated but analysts I heard on the radio yesterday said the purchase of soybeans added about 1% of that growth.
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Old 07-29-2018, 01:45 PM   #30
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Based on your posts, it seems to me you have shifted more and more right over the last decade. You are anti Obama and his policies, particularly economy, were mostly moderate. I would have pegged you as more tea party than moderate. Socially I am liberal or libertarian in that I don't want people like Jim deciding what is right for other people or the correct family values. Pretty sure it is moderate to think we need border control, but not a billions of dollars ineffective wall. It is moderate to believe the people coming are generally good people in terrible situations and not the b.s. that they are rapists, murders, etc. Ya know, pretty much the same things Reagan believed. I think tax cuts are best focused on the middle class and that payroll tax cuts are particularly helpful. Top tax rates shouldn't be 90 or 70 percent, but cutting top tax rates, which were relatively low, during a strong economy is not necessarily smart policy. And yes I am liberal orelated to fishing in that I have been angry for 12 years at the rate people kill big fish because it is stupid and harmful and generally done to stroke the egos of the insecure.
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Hahaha ; )

I am more Libertarian but sadly cannot trust enough of the populace to handle a libertarian society - they just can't ; )

Yes - some basic views of Tea Party; low taxes, low intrusion by Gov, let others be, that overlap, that intersection, is where I would like to see things.

I like some of what Obama did but I am critical of other things. Not sure I moved right much. I know the left moved (and is moving) more left.

Ohhh, and clearly fighting stuff like the straw ban is a near RW militia view ; )

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