the Trump Phenomenon

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Nebe

And that qualifies him to be our president ?!?!?
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

He's not going to be President. If it's him against her, she might run the table. It will be a rout of 1984-like proportions.

I get the anger, I say with no ambiguity that I can't stand Obama and they way he treats everone who disagrees with him. I get that Republicans want someone who will be willing to respond in kind when attacked (Bush 43, McCain, and Romney never did that, they didn't have it in them, and it didn't serve them well).

No President has thrown more cheap shots than Weird Harold (attacking the Supreme Court, during the State of the Union, when they are sitting right in front of you, and they don't have a chance to respond? There is no cheaper shot than that, there just isn't). I get the anger. What I don't get, is how you think that a productive channle for that anger, is voting for a guy who literally has no chance in the general. We are handing the presidency to the Dems, and quite possibly Congress as well. Because a Trump candidacy will result in massive liberal turnout to block him, and will incentivize people like me to stay home.

I will cast a write-in vote for Condaleeza Rice, I think.

[scottw]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

He's not going to be President. If it's him against her, she might run the table. It will be a rout of 1984-like proportions.

Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman, the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.

Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.

“Take it to the bank,” Norpoth confidently suggested.

Norpoth, a 1974 University of Michigan Ph.D. recipient who specializes in electoral behavior alignment, said his crystal ball also shows a 61-percent chance that the Republican nominee — Trump or not — will win the 2016 presidential election.

The political scientist also said there is virtually no way Trump could lose the Electoral College vote if he rakes in 54.7 percent — or more — of the vote.

Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries in caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement. It also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles. One major assumption is that the party which has just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term.

The model has been correct for every election since 1912 except for the 1960 election — which pitted winner John F. Kennedy against loser Richard Nixon.

In total, Norpoth observed, his forecasting formula he has created has been correct 96.1 percent of the time since 1912.

The professor said he has used the model in recent times to predict Bill Clinton’s victories as well as George W. Bush’s and Barack Obama’s wins.