Interesting early forecasted path

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0309W5_NL_sm2+gif/083413W5_NL_sm.gif

Looks like a slim chance it could stay south and miss the low pressure front that's supposed to push it offshore.

-spence

their predicting the low presure area will be over n.j. by the weekend and will push it out to sea. meanwhile, i'm putting oar locks on the house.
batten down the hatches matey.

whama jammer - we're over due

maybe we should hire Monica to do a beach exorcism

Watch out on the rocks this weekend. Higher than usual tides coupled with a big swell can be quite dangerous. Even if the storm misses us way east, there's still going to be some impact.

I hate these %$%$%$%$ing things...this is headed right at us. I hope it goes away. Then again, it could screw up Obama's vacation and that is worth something.

Al Roker says headed out to sea! You alarmists better gas up the car and stock up on water, milk, bread, batteries and candles!:uhuh:

This will light up the choggie bite. I cant wait.

similar storm: August Gale

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1927_Nova_Scotia_hurricane

similar storm: August Gale

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1927_Nova_Scotia_hurricane

Interesting find - BTW - welcome to S-B

At this point one of two things can happen.
1) The storm hits us head on, we batten down the hatches and ride it out. the fishing will be shut off for about a week while we all go into disaster recovery mode.
2) It goes out to sea as the current weather models predict. It churns up the surf, might create a late season algae bloom (red-tide), and may even push some of those large bass off of the tuna grounds back into the shallower shores.
Either way it'll be a change in what has been a very boring summer.
If it weren't for fresh water and my kayak, I wouldn't have much to brag about.

Interesting early forecasted path

'Interesting' is not the first choice of description when your first family vacation in six years (small kids) is on the shore in East Falmouth friday for a week .........:wall:

In fact, I can think of several very Saxon ones. All I can do is hope that the meteorologists are as accurate at soothsaying as they usually are, and that the blasted storm heads way out east.
Probably hubris, but.....

The really long range forecasts have it spinning further out that that picture, but still coming roughly as close before turning....

I've had some of my best fishing during hurricanes. I do like the name too.

I'm going down to Hazard Ave and get a video for my site of somebody getting washed away - then I'll get some PFD's and Korkers and make a killin'

HALLELUJAH!!!
funny sheeeet, as always, Joe!

this could be the END of the doldrums

and the beginning of the BITE :drool: :drool: :drool:

thanks to you Bill and the Boss for the projected path.
FINALLY, there WILL be SURF and just in tiime for the New!!!
:jump: :jump: :jump: :jump:

'Interesting' is not the first choice of description when your first family vacation in six years (small kids) is on the shore in East Famouth friday for a week .........:wall:

In fact, I can think of several very Saxon ones. All I can do is hope that the meteorologists are as accurate at soothsaying as they usually are, and that the blasted storm heads way out east.
Probably hubris, but.....

sorry about your vacation plans, SW.
hope it's just a glancing blow and not a stiff Noreaster uppercut.
:bl: :bl: :bl:

we're flying out Monday am, I hope all is quiet by then, I need a vacation bad.

Cape Cod now in the cone of uncertainty. Watch out...this one could be the one. I don't like this path.

Al Roker...:rotf2: he is not weatherman, he is a TV personality.

Sunday/Monday forecasts showing 8-12' coastal, 10-15' outer coastal, and up to 35' on the Grand Banks.... Looks like the tuna trip window closes Saturday, at least for a few days.

Should at least have some good surf for Saturday's North Shore Leg at Plum Island.

Cape Cod now in the cone of uncertainty. Watch out...this one could be the one. I don't like this path.

Yeah, I was with you a day or so ago, but that High coming in should be big enough to block it and send it out to the Maritimes...

What do you mean? I saw Al Roker interviewing the cast of the Office... :jump1:

Look, look at this. We got Hurricane Bill moving north off the Atlantic seaboard. Huge... getting massive. Two, this low south of Sable Island, ready to explode. Look at this. Three, a fresh cold front swooping down from Canada. But it's caught a ride on the jet stream... and is motoring hell-bent towards the Atlantic. What if Hurricane Bill runs smack into it? Add to the scenario this baby off Sable Island, scrounging for energy. She'll start feeding off both the Canadian cold front... and Hurricane Bill. You could be a meteorologist all your life... and never see something like this. It would be a disaster of epic proportions. It would be... the perfect storm.

From a weather router:

Only the GFS model takes Bill right down the pipe for Bermuda. The rest of the models are more westerly in their tracks and the official forecast from NHC/NWS assumes the western models are correct and takes a slightly west biased route.

All of the guidance is predicated on the troughs out in the Atlantic and the yet to form trough in the far Eastern US to affect the high pressure out in the Atlantic (Bill's steering wheel).

As the storm only appears to be threatening Bermuda at the moment, Bill will need to find the needle in the haystack to threaten life and property and while that is possible, I am not losing any sleep over his forecast path....Yet. Let's see how dramatic the NW turn is in 36-72 hours and that will give us a much better sense of where he is going.

Also keep your eye on the disturbed weather between Cuba/ Bahamas/Florida. Nothing yet and the NHC says "low probs" but they had "No Probs" in the area where Claudette formed...

I dunno, they changed the predicted track as of this AM bringing it closer to the Cape

Without a doubt, it bears watching at this point...:smokin:

Raven, ya might wanna check with your Indian friend on this one...I've got a call in to the old Portagee down the street but he's out right now

He may be in the yard securing his tomato plants

I dunno, they changed the predicted track as of this AM bringing it closer to the Cape

NHC doesn't have much faith in that

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0309_PROB64_F120+gif/084214.gif

NHC doesn't have much faith in that


I'm gonna wait for word from the old Portagoosie down the street, myself

And check the 11 AM NHC update just to be sure

I'm gonna wait for word from the old Portagoosie down the street, myself

Make sure to check how many bottles he's gone through first. ;)

Isn't today the anniversary of out last pinwheeled visitor, Hurricane Bob in the early 90s?

The Cape is going to see gale force winds and high surf no matter what, looking at that track. And you'll get surf all along the mid-Atlantic bight.

Candles......check

Batteries.....check

Milk.....check

Bread.....check

Water.....check

Figures we are headed to Wellfleet for the week starting Saturday!!! At least we will be on the harbor side protected!!:uhuh:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_108s.gif

Make sure to check how many bottles he's gone through first. ;)

Will do - on my end down this way, I'm hoping it won't be more than a 2 bottle storm...:gu:

Maybe Karl F will pipe up with a prediction for you guys on the Cape - he's usually right on the money...:laughs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_120s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_120s.gif

This is as close as the MSLP shows it
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_108s.gif

GFS agrees for now.

Lotta bark, no bite.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/4e/gfs_pres_4e.gif

NS may get the crap kicked out of it though.

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US


Look at the last few images...this is headed right at us. The next 24 hours will be tell us if it intends to turn. :hidin:

Candles......check

Batteries.....check

Milk.....check

Bread.....check

Water.....check

!:uhuh:

NO COOKIES ????

Every year I look for one to come by and stir the pot for the doldrums to be no more, We want it close to push those fish off the bank and in our way. But not close enough for us to sustain alot of damage. BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If it acts anything like it's namesake, it will get all spun up, followed by glancing "blow" and a little squirt onto the "beach"... I don't think we have anything to worry about :rotf2:

K.
No comment for now.

It is entirely possible that Bill will take the forecast path but a scary specter rose its head this afternoon...The high pressure that was scheduled to have some weakness in it allowing Bill to make a continuous right turn showed hints of not breaking down quite the way the models predicted in the 30-060 hour time window. The low pressure system expected to sweep Bill out to the North and then rapidly NE may be either delayed or not quite as deep as originally anticipated. None of these are facts (yet) and the storm may very well play out along the tightly clustered model consensus but with a storm this strong and fairly large in size, it is worth watching.


:hidin:

K.No comment for now. :hidin:

Yeah, the GFS model and the Euro models both show a slight shift to a more northerly track.
I really don't feel like going on a Hauling brigade for the boat(s) :wall:

Yeah, the GFS model and the Euro models both show a slight shift to a more northerly track.
I really don't feel like going on a Hauling brigade for the boat(s) :wall:

bad juju.

we'll see.
I have faith in the high to keep it out to sea and keep us to T.S force wind gusts max... I haven't seen a model that puts the east side near S.E. New England, and NONE that have the freight train track of 38...

we'll see.
I have faith in the high to keep it out to see and keep us to T.S force wind gusts max... I haven't seen a model that puts the east side near S.E. New England, and NONE that have the freight train track of 38...

Still a bit too early to make any solid predictions.
Tomorrow night could be a go/no go.

Will do - on my end down this way, I'm hoping it won't be more than a 2 bottle storm...:gu:

Maybe Karl F will pipe up with a prediction for you guys on the Cape - he's usually right on the money...:laughs:

:wave:... :hihi:...

we are due... been 18 years since Bob....
week without power...except at our store... only cold beer on lower cape for a week... man we was swamped... scored lotsa free firewood... but... I digress...a bit... the t-shirts... "I got Blown By Bob on Cape Cod"...guy that did those up that year made a killin... i ran into him tonight at work...asked him if he started on the "I got Blown By Bill on Cape Cod" t-shirts yet... :hihi:... he said he already had the art work done, and is gonna wait a day or so... to see the track... he know he has to blast them out before NSTAR pukes....IF we get it....

we is selling tons of bottles, regardless....but it will be at least a 2 bottle storm,:buds: no matter where it makes land fall... and I am making sure I have a full tank of chainsaw gas, atleast two extra sharp chains... and that the motorhome has a full load of gas, propane, and water, and made sure the generator is in good working order today.... plus the wife , I am sure, will load up on provisions.....just in case... :hihi:..

Just walked out of work a bit ago...it is a helluva lot more humid now, than earlier in the day...and the air is stagnant...no breeze...

my Mom would call this past weeks weather... a "weather breeder"....
an 83 year old I know told me tonight, his bones tell him it's coming..
and says it will pass right over Falmouth... :hihi:...

who knows??? :huh:

:D

Only Time will tell....

Hey Guys and Gals, chris here.

Just looked this up on wikipedia and thought it was interesting. Path of the '38 Hurricane. What caused it to straighten out there at the end when it looked like it would curve out to sea? I'm still learning and trying to understand how these troughs and ridges "steer" these massive storms.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/38/1938_New_England_hurricane_track.png

Yeah, Karl if I was gonna trust anyone it'd have to be someone old enough to have lived through the '38, '44 and '54 storms - I only qualify on one out of the three and my memories of Carol are still pretty vivid considering I was only 5 at the time

In all seriousness - which is fairly rare for me - can't say I like the predicted track going inside of Bermuda and now the high to our west looks to be stalling...:smokin:...gotta check a couple of weather maps

Worst case would be the cold front to our west slowing down allowing Bill to pass in between that one and the one responsible for our hot weather off the coast, funneling it this way

At the very least they're calling for swells between 12-20' by Sunday

I'll listen to the NHC morning report, but I may be moving up to DefCon 2 as of now for the storm - thank God we had a long-overdue new roof put on the house last week, just hope it stays there...:hs:

If nothing else at this point, it's at least worth making sure you're prepared - better safe than sorry

You've gotta admit, it's been a strange summer weather-wise...:huh:

SIGN on the old Indian's house

left town because of hurricane :confused:

I'm sticking with what I said above , maybe TS gusts, and maybe the extreme west edge brushes ACK....

What caused it to straighten out there at the end when it looked like it would curve out to sea?

Probably a Low that was sitting there pushing it out to sea fell apart and let it go thumping along. The ridges are the boundaries between systems.

Probably a Low that was sitting there pushing it out to sea fell apart and let it go thumping along. The ridges are the boundaries between systems.

If you get a High way out over Bermuda as well, it can ride the west edge of that, coupled with a dip near the coast in the jet stream... it will ride up, and come fast, typically forward speeds in new England are 40-60mph. makes the east side of the storm that much worse.

Updated runs still show it out to sea the closest model is the NGF model....

SIGN on the old Indian's house

left town because of hurricane :confused:

Hmmm...I noticed the old greenhorn up the street was out early this AM doubling up the lines on his tomato plants...:confused:

Hmmm...I noticed the old greenhorn up the street was out early this AM doubling up the lines on his tomato plants...:confused:


:rotf2:

I'm gonna wait for word from the old Portagoosie down the street, myself

And check the 11 AM NHC update just to be sure

Doesnt sound so bad according to Weather Manny

http://portuguesefireman.com/files/10_Weather_Manny_2.mp3

Doesnt sound so bad according to Weather Manny

http://portuguesefireman.com/files/10_Weather_Manny_2.mp3

:rotf2: LMAO everytime I hear Weather Manny

I'll start worrying about it on Saturday. Maybe I should get another propane tank and fill it, so we'll have the grill. Or I can just grab an extra bag of charcoal for that other grill.

Maybe it'll hit us hard enough to get me out of jury duty on Monday :rotf2:

Bill has continued to move on a steady northwest track or 305
degrees at 16 knots...embedded within the flow surrounding the
Azores-Bermuda high. In about two days...the hurricane will become
steered northward and then northeastward by the flow between a
large mid-latitude trough swinging eastward across the eastern
United States and the subtropical high. Once the recurvature
begins...the hurricane should increase in forward speed. Most of
the track guidance shifted slightly to the west compared to the
previous run. This shift in guidance justifies a very small shift
to the west of the track official forecast...which indeed is very
close to the consensus.


Large swells generated by this hurricane are affecting the northern
Leeward Islands and should begin affecting the Bahamas...Bermuda...
most of the eastern U.S. Coast...and the Atlantic Maritimes of
Canada during the next few days. These swells will likely
cause extremely dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents.
Please consult statements issued by your local weather office for
more details.


This afternoon NOAA and the 53rd hurricane hunters will be
conducting a two-aircraft synoptic surveillance mission around
Hurricane Bill to improve the initial analysis for the numerical
models.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_072s.gif


72 hour has precip right on top of the cape

:rotf2: LMAO everytime I hear Weather Manny

listened to it ah Twice

wicked funny

Damn those new yorkers LOL

Hey, bahhhdy, we got troublesh ova heah...

Unplug everyt'ing, just like Avo used to do...:hihi:

There's a good book, A Wind To Shake The World, about the 38' Hurricane. It was written by a summer resident that had one of the forty or so cottages that lined Napatree Point.

I am still not convinced this will make a hard right turn and go way out to sea. Many models are still predicting a cat 1+ direct hit. I know what the weather man says..but look at the maps. It may be a near miss but it will be a mess nonetheless.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/activestorms/atlantic/2009/1/Bill/storms.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&gfx=category#stormProducts

OT:
BTW several big jets and numerous real big military helo's just flew over my house in route to the airport. They (the black elite) are here.:fury: I am headed to my workshop and make some lures. See you in 2 weeks.

There's still a bunch of models putting this over the cape.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200903_ensmodel.gif

Bill's future movement will be highly dependent upon its interaction with an upper level disturbance northwest of the hurricane and high pressure strengthening to the east. This interaction will guide Bill on a northwest course the rest of today through Friday. A strong upper-level trough now located over the central United States will move east causing increasing southwest upper-level winds over the western Atlantic this weekend. This will help steer the hurricane on a more northerly course between 65 west longitude and 70 west longitude. If the upper-level trough moves faster than expected, Bill's track will be closer to 65 west. If the upper-level trough moves slower, then Bill's track will be closer to and perhaps just west of 70 west



Mike P
Jiggin' Leper Lawyer
iTrader: (0)




Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: 41° 44.5' N, 70° 36.8' W :shocked::err::conf::uhoh:

looks like somebunny will
be battening down the hatches!!!

just brang awn tha SURF!!!
:bl: :bl: :bl:

If the upper-level trough moves slower, then Bill's track will be closer to and perhaps just west of 70 west


I dunno, Mike - as of this AM the Weather Channel says that front out of the Midwest is gonna stall to our west - I still think it's gonna be a little dodgey hereabouts - and downright sporty on the Lower Cape

I guess this is gonna be the acid test for the new roof - I'm expecting a wet and gusty weekend at the very least, if nothing else

I'll tell ya, yesterday's weather sure had that pre-hurricane feel that I remember - real humid and still with virtually no breeze...:smokin:

If you start to notice very few birds of any kind around, it's time to start paying attention big time...:hs:

Maybe time to go to DefCon 1 - I'll have to run it by the Chief of Naval Operations as soon as she wakes up

You guys did see that the official NHC forecasts are moving the cone of opportunity further out to sea as of last night and the 5am, right? And after Katrina etc.. they are probably super cautious anyways, right?

This has a 1996 feel to it, warm, hot and storms passing offshore, making lots of good surf!

Anybody remember the name of the near-miss locally in the mid to late '90's...end of September I think it was...:huh:

I dunno, Mike - as of this AM the Weather Channel says that front out of the Midwest is gonna stall to our west - I still think it's gonna be a little dodgey hereabouts - and downright sporty on the Lower Cape

I guess this is gonna be the acid test for the new roof - I'm expecting a wet and gusty weekend at the very least, if nothing else

I'll tell ya, yesterday's weather sure had that pre-hurricane feel that I remember - real humid and still with virtually no breeze...:smokin:

If you start to notice very few birds of any kind around, it's time to start paying attention big time...:hs:

Maybe time to go to DefCon 1 - I'll have to run it by the Chief of Naval Operations as soon as she wakes up

You guys did see that the official NHC forecasts are moving the cone of opportunity further out to sea as of last night and the 5am, right? And after Katrina etc.. they are probably super cautious anyways, right?

This has a 1996 feel to it, warm, hot and storms passing offshore, making lots of good surf!

This is why I said I won't start worrying about this until tomorrow.

I remember the 90s near miss--it veered unexpectedly out to sea at the last minute. When we were still in its bullseye, the air had a heavy, metallic feel to it that you could almost taste.

Don't mess with Bill

i was living in NPT and working under Chef Hawver at the White Horse in '91. i'll never forget the hurricane whose eye passed right over 1st Beach,,,,,,,,,,,,i believe it was Bob? don't know if that's the one you meant Crafty~~but it was AWESOME walking around 1st Beach during the EYE, the surf was crashing onto the first lane of Memorial Blvd, and there were trees down EVERYWHERE along the RI Ave area from where we conducted our watch party :uhuh: :uhuh: :uhuh:

your all a bunch of girls !!!!!! it was great fishing in the canal before and after huricane bob. saw whales and dolfins ,crazy sh t . bass on chunk pogies was good.. 91 was the last big blow that came through w/100+ winds,boats at mo beach were on shore road 200 ft from the water. lost power for 6 days . borrowed 5000kw from a friend.. now i have my own 8500kw hooked up.... 6gal = 12hrs. u hear them all through the area...glad i got mine .....

i was living in NPT and working under Chef Hawver at the White Horse in '91. i'll never forget the hurricane whose eye passed right over 1st Beach,,,,,,,,,,,,i believe it was Bob? don't know if that's the one you meant Crafty~~but it was AWESOME walking around 1st Beach during the EYE, the surf was crashing onto the first lane of Memorial Blvd, and there were trees down EVERYWHERE along the RI Ave area from where we conducted our watch party :uhuh: :uhuh: :uhuh:

It was Bob...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_slp_054s.gif


54 has the precip cone just east of us

Looks like a miss...

Just precip. 1-3 max, swells and 30kt winds

I got a tuna charter on Tuesday, I hope these swells lay down by then.

Lets face it here.....nobody knows wtf this system is going to do...all the fancy projections, data, graphs, hunches, farmers almanac, historical data etc, recurring arthritis, diarrhea....we may just very well get our butt whipped for all anyone knows...lets just hope not...

I just need to make sure my headlamp has batteries so I can do some fishing...off to CVS.

Crafty...the one in 96, that took a quick turn and left us alone, was Edourd...
I was on the beach in my camper, and got a knock on the door as i was cooking breakfast, telling me to leave the beach.... asked if i could finish breakfast, and was told to Hurry Up!...

The Birds left this AM, not a peep, or any activity at the feeder... the air is Florida Funky... after no wind or breeze for 3 days, it is starting to kick up, could be the other front from the west, who knows??... heard one forecaster say that tomorrow night/Sunday AM, the farthest east point on CC wil get 40-50 mph winds, heavy rains, and rip tides, and heavy surf...12-20 foot seas... we got 11.2 feet high tide at 2 AM Sunday too..can't get much farther east, than where i is...
Orleans has already posted that Nauset ORV will close Satruday and Sunday, and will be re-evaluated on Monday.....
Bill's center, they keep saying will pass 200 miles, (approx) to our east....
that's close enuf....but...like i been telling folks...we will know Monday AM for sure, what the damn thing will have done...and not until then...

lots of boats either getting moved into the inshore ponds and such, or downright hauled out today....
one local hauler quipped...the ones that is payed for, got hauled,...the ones with lots of $Paper$, and good insurance... are still moored :D

Storm Bottles!!!..get your Storm Bottles ... :buds:

There's a good book, A Wind To Shake The World, about the 38' Hurricane. It was written by a summer resident that had one of the forty or so cottages that lined Napatree Point.

Definitely a good read. A simple book that doesn't take long, but will bring a whole new perspective to many areas we're all familiar with.

-spence

Not alot of wind either, very outer cape only

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_042s.gif