View Full Version : Never trust the NOAA forecast
piemma 07-18-2011, 08:29 AM Headed out at 3:00 AM this morning. NOAA forcast said 5 to 10. Got around Warwick Light and it's 3 to 5' blowing 20 to 25 SW. Said OK this isn't so bad and it'll lay down. HAHA!!!
Just north of Hope Island and I'm getting into solid 4' with a 6' here and there with a chop on top because of the tide being opposite the wind. Said screw it and turned back and headed up to Prov. No fish, tough ride and a guest onboard from Cal. He did OK till the ride back then the Ralphs set in.
fish4striper 07-18-2011, 08:44 AM I gave up on that site, I use sailflow and buoyweather
albin35 07-18-2011, 09:25 AM NOAA
No
Observations
Are
Accurate
Typhoon 07-18-2011, 09:52 AM I'm heading to the canyons this weekend.... nervous about this
http://image.weather.com/images/maps/pt_BR/tropical/map_tropprjpath02_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg
tautog 07-18-2011, 10:00 AM batten down the hatches and don life saving equip we're in for a bit of Mother Nature's bad breath.
Pete F. 07-18-2011, 10:06 AM The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) — Naval Oceanography Portal (http://www.usno.navy.mil/FNMOC/)
Fishoholic 07-18-2011, 11:21 AM looks pretty light now..
PORTS (http://www.co-ops.nos.noaa.gov/ports/ports_data.shtml?stn=8452951%20Potter%20Cove,%20Pr udence%20Island&data_type=All%20Meteorological)
RIROCKHOUND 07-18-2011, 04:44 PM How many times are we going to go over this...:smash::love::love::love:
1. Check the tide stations and the buoys for actual wind before you leave the dock
2. Use The RI Sound forecast for south of the bridge winds
3. It always feels worse. Conimicut was 15kt gusts this AM. just feels crappy dead up the bay
4. 4-6ft means in the trough you are looking up and just see water higher than your head... we had 6's with some 8's last canyon trip.... trust me that's big. Even in the tide there, 3ft and short spacing can feel big.
I'm just glad you estimate fish size better than wave heights :rotf2::rotf2::rotf2::rotf2::rotf2::rotf2:
striperman36 07-18-2011, 04:57 PM we're gonna go over it as many times as we do every year.
Sailflow, and surfer forecast for swells.
Raven 07-18-2011, 05:27 PM trust your gut instinct too
hound... LOL! i was going to bust his chops about that..
I don't think Hope island saw 6 footers in hurricane BOB.. :rotf2::rotf2::rotf2::rotf2:
piemma 07-19-2011, 02:46 AM How many times are we going to go over this...:smash::love::love::love:
1. Check the tide stations and the buoys for actual wind before you leave the dock
2. Use The RI Sound forecast for south of the bridge winds
3. It always feels worse. Conimicut was 15kt gusts this AM. just feels crappy dead up the bay
4. 4-6ft means in the trough you are looking up and just see water higher than your head... we had 6's with some 8's last canyon trip.... trust me that's big. Even in the tide there, 3ft and short spacing can feel big.
I'm just glad you estimate fish size better than wave heights :rotf2::rotf2::rotf2::rotf2::rotf2::rotf2:
1. I did
2. I did
3. You don't get whitcaps at 15KTs
4. When I was in the trought I had waves almost up to the T-Top. Yes, 3AM does make it look worse but it was big none the less.
5. And Nebe, since you are a "yakker" I do not expect any comments from you about what real men do in real boats.:rotf2:
Mr. Sandman 07-19-2011, 04:42 AM I find it reasonable but at times they have been off a lot, esp way offshore.
One thing to do is look at what is happening now and what is expected to come. it might be 5-10 now with 15-25 with higher gusts tonight and what happens is "tonight" comes faster than anticipated...like later this afternoon.
When I go offshore I check multiple weather sources and assume the worst.
That said, they do get it wrong from time to time....A year or so ago I recall listening to the weather radio while in Atlantis Canyon...they were saying it was 5-10 with 2-4 ' seas and it was to go to light and variable with seas less than 2'. The wind was easy 25 my hat flew off and seas were 10-12. I looked at my buddy and said...do you hear the forecast? what is wrong with this picture??? The next night around 3:00 am it finally dropped to light and variable but it was a difficult afternoon and evening.
Sometimes they are wrong, no question but in general I think they are not all that bad and you have to be ready for when they are wrong and prepare for that.
Weather prediction is more difficult than you think. It is similar to fluid flow prediction which is what I use to to do... Have you heard of the "butterfly effect"?... in theory, a butterfly flapping its wings in china can effect weather systems in the US ...what that means is you really have to model the entire globes atmosphere in fine detail to get anything accurate. If you do that the simulation is so complex and so slow (even with the worlds fastest computers) that the real weather system will come and go before the simulation is complete. So, they "simplify" the computer model and cut a few corners to get results sooner but at a cost of accuracy. This is esp true in hurricane path prediction and they run numerous models to approximate the path but they rarely hit it dead on. In any case... it is better than it use to be.
piemma 07-19-2011, 06:08 AM I find it reasonable but at times they have been off a lot, esp way offshore.
One thing to do is look at what is happening now and what is expected to come. it might be 5-10 now with 15-25 with higher gusts tonight and what happens is "tonight" comes faster than anticipated...like later this afternoon.
When I go offshore I check multiple weather sources and assume the worst.
That said, they do get it wrong from time to time....A year or so ago I recall listening to the weather radio while in Atlantis Canyon...they were saying it was 5-10 with 2-4 ' seas and it was to go to light and variable with seas less than 2'. The wind was easy 25 my hat flew off and seas were 10-12. I looked at my buddy and said...do you hear the forecast? what is wrong with this picture??? The next night around 3:00 am it finally dropped to light and variable but it was a difficult afternoon and evening.
Sometimes they are wrong, no question but in general I think they are not all that bad and you have to be ready for when they are wrong and prepare for that.
Weather prediction is more difficult than you think. It is similar to fluid flow prediction which is what I use to to do... Have you heard of the "butterfly effect"?... in theory, a butterfly flapping its wings in china can effect weather systems in the US ...what that means is you really have to model the entire globes atmosphere in fine detail to get anything accurate. If you do that the simulation is so complex and so slow (even with the worlds fastest computers) that the real weather system will come and go before the simulation is complete. So, they "simplify" the computer model and cut a few corners to get results sooner but at a cost of accuracy. This is esp true in hurricane path prediction and they run numerous models to approximate the path but they rarely hit it dead on. In any case... it is better than it use to be.
Great post. Thanks for the clarity
likwid 07-19-2011, 06:19 AM 3. You don't get whitcaps at 15KTs
In the shallow water up there you do.
RIROCKHOUND 07-19-2011, 06:30 AM 1. I did
2. I did
3. You don't get whitcaps at 15KTs
4. When I was in the trought I had waves almost up to the T-Top. Yes, 3AM does make it look worse but it was big none the less.
5. And Nebe, since you are a "yakker" I do not expect any comments from you about what real men do in real boats.:rotf2:
Don't make me go all sciencey on you :smash:
Red arrows are @ 330am. Until 330am you had a ebbing spring tide + 15kts southerly wind = white caps.
Sea Dangles 07-19-2011, 06:38 AM I always check fishweather for a real time buoy observation. Couple that with NOAA and their guesswork for a good guesstimate.
Typhoon 07-19-2011, 07:18 AM Which leads me to my Canyon forecast for the weekend
Yes Fishweather says no NW or NE anywhere.
FRI
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BECOMING W TO NW 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4
TO 6 FT.
SAT
NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT SHIFTING E TO NE. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
$$
piemma 07-19-2011, 07:49 AM Don't make me go all sciencey on you :smash:
Red arrows are @ 330am. Until 330am you had a ebbing spring tide + 15kts southerly wind = white caps.
OK, I yield to the Doctor. I cannot win this battle. The war, perhaps, will be a different matter.:biglaugh:
Mr. Sandman 07-19-2011, 09:02 AM Which leads me to my Canyon forecast for the weekend
Yes Fishweather says no NW or NE anywhere.
Well, you have a possible monkey wrench thrown in...a dying tropical storm is headed NE offshore, so you will have a larger swell than a normally wind generated one.
Typhoon 07-19-2011, 09:22 AM Well, you have a possible monkey wrench thrown in...a dying tropical storm is headed NE offshore, so you will have a larger swell than a normally wind generated one.
I really really want to go....this is the boat we'll be going on. He's run it 22 knots in 6 fters on the way down from Maine.
http://i854.photobucket.com/albums/ab110/amar1293/IMAG0334.jpg
Mr. Sandman 07-19-2011, 10:10 AM enjoy your trip!
RIJIMMY 07-19-2011, 01:54 PM hound... LOL! i was going to bust his chops about that..
I don't think Hope island saw 6 footers in hurricane BOB.. :rotf2::rotf2::rotf2::rotf2:
Not so sure about that, at least a little further south
zacs was out there the same time I was in 2007, coming in from Narr, under the Jamestown bridge in late Sept. I thought I was done for. Waves looked to me to be 6+ . Every wave was an outloud "f**k" for a few miles. Bow was almost straight up at times and we rode down every wave. If I turned the boat sideways, we would have went over. I'll never forget that. I've been out in Newport with 4 ft swells and it was nothing compared to that day.
Fishoholic 07-19-2011, 02:42 PM Not so sure about that, at least a little further south
zacs was out there the same time I was in 2007, coming in from Narr, under the Jamestown bridge in late Sept. I thought I was done for. Waves looked to me to be 6+ . Every wave was an outloud "f**k" for a few miles. Bow was almost straight up at times and we rode down every wave. If I turned the boat sideways, we would have went over. I'll never forget that. I've been out in Newport with 4 ft swells and it was nothing compared to that day.
I've seen it stand up under those bridges a few times on a good ebb to where it was close to that. But it was when no one had any business being out there and it wasn't quite 6'.. but close.
MakoMike 07-19-2011, 02:48 PM Storm swells will be long period and nothing to worry about, its the wind chop on top that'll make your life miserable.
piemma 07-20-2011, 02:36 AM Not so sure about that, at least a little further south
zacs was out there the same time I was in 2007, coming in from Narr, under the Jamestown bridge in late Sept. I thought I was done for. Waves looked to me to be 6+ . Every wave was an outloud "f**k" for a few miles. Bow was almost straight up at times and we rode down every wave. If I turned the boat sideways, we would have went over. I'll never forget that. I've been out in Newport with 4 ft swells and it was nothing compared to that day.
Thanks for validating Jim. Nebe would know though. He's the old man of the sea with all his experience in boats on the Bay.
RIROCKHOUND 07-20-2011, 05:06 AM Thanks for validating Jim. Nebe would know though. He's the old man of the sea with all his experience in boats on the Bay.
He might not, but I know the stretch between the bridge and the Hill better than most...
south of the House on the Rock, w/ a big offshore swell. yes. It can stand up there. North of the bridge, not as much....
My point is still that you guys overestimate wave heights and wind speeds..... :smash:
piemma 07-20-2011, 05:27 AM :wall::wall::wall::wall::wall:
I give up. No mas
RIROCKHOUND 07-20-2011, 06:51 AM :wall::wall::wall::wall::wall:
I give up. No mas
War of attrition... :love:
Next time it's a true 3-5ft outside I'll call you and we'll take a ride
Thanks for validating Jim. Nebe would know though. He's the old man of the sea with all his experience in boats on the Bay.
In about 5 more years, if you fish every day , you will catch up with my hours of boatng experience in the bay. I lived on a boat for most of my childhood and into my teen years and have sailed on just about every nook and crany of the east and west passage. I've been kayak fishing Newport since the early 90's.. :P I've also done offshore sailing passages that Gould blow your mind. So yes, I do have a little old man of the sea in me. :)
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
RIJIMMY 07-20-2011, 09:00 AM In about 5 more years, if you fish every day , you will catch up with my hours of boatng experience in the bay. I lived on a boat for most of my childhood and into my teen years and have sailed on just about every nook and crany of the east and west passage. I've been kayak fishing Newport since the early 90's.. :P I've also done offshore sailing passages that Gould blow your mind. So yes, I do have a little old man of the sea in me. :)
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
I'd expect you to catch a little more fish then :love:
RIROCKHOUND 07-20-2011, 09:32 AM I'd expect you to catch a little more fish then :love:
He is in the early stages of bottom fishing tutalage.
RIROCKHOUND 07-20-2011, 10:36 AM Which leads me to my Canyon forecast for the weekend
Yes Fishweather says no NW or NE anywhere.
We're officially on 'watch' as well for the weekend....
striperman36 07-20-2011, 12:13 PM Swellinfo is looking good too
Block Island, Rhode Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report (http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/block-island-rhode-island.html)
likwid 07-20-2011, 12:39 PM In about 5 more years, if you fish every day , you will catch up with my hours of boatng experience in the bay. I lived on a boat for most of my childhood and into my teen years and have sailed on just about every nook and crany of the east and west passage. I've been kayak fishing Newport since the early 90's.. :P I've also done offshore sailing passages that Gould blow your mind. So yes, I do have a little old man of the sea in me. :)
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
:lurk: :hihi:
piemma 07-20-2011, 01:02 PM In about 5 more years, if you fish every day , you will catch up with my hours of boatng experience in the bay. I lived on a boat for most of my childhood and into my teen years and have sailed on just about every nook and crany of the east and west passage. I've been kayak fishing Newport since the early 90's.. :P I've also done offshore sailing passages that Gould blow your mind. So yes, I do have a little old man of the sea in me. :)
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
I should have known Nebe. After all, you only ran agound inside NR a dozen times.:rotf2:
I should have known Nebe. After all, you only ran agound inside NR a dozen times.:rotf2:
and you drove around with a trash bag over your lower unit all day long... :buds::rotflmao:
RIJIMMY 07-20-2011, 03:28 PM and you drove around with a trash bag over your lower unit all day long... :buds::rotflmao:
i've got a million lines I want to use on that but this is a family site :rotf2:
i've got a million lines I want to use on that but this is a family site :rotf2:
he he was practicing safe boating.
piemma 07-21-2011, 02:31 AM he he was practicing safe boating.
...and it was a Boaters World bag!!!!
Not so sure about that, at least a little further south
zacs was out there the same time I was in 2007, coming in from Narr, under the Jamestown bridge in late Sept. I thought I was done for. Waves looked to me to be 6+ . Every wave was an outloud "f**k" for a few miles. Bow was almost straight up at times and we rode down every wave. If I turned the boat sideways, we would have went over. I'll never forget that. I've been out in Newport with 4 ft swells and it was nothing compared to that day.
if you are talking about the day i had tynan & starfish on the boat, then yeah, that was probably the ugliest my boat has seen, specifically coming north under the jamestown bridge it was 6 feet easy with very short periods. big time white knuckle factor.
that day things progressively got worse, then when the tide turned and it was wind against... not fun.
and for the record, nebe has a lot of experience at sea... probably the best peg boy i know ;)
RIJIMMY 07-21-2011, 09:13 AM if you are talking about the day i had tynan & starfish on the boat, then yeah, that was probably the ugliest my boat has seen, specifically coming north under the jamestown bridge it was 6 feet easy with very short periods. big time white knuckle factor.
that day things progressively got worse, then when the tide turned and it was wind against... not fun.
and for the record, nebe has a lot of experience at sea... probably the best peg boy i know ;)
yup, thats the day. glad you chimed in!
likwid 07-22-2011, 05:56 AM if you are talking about the day i had tynan & starfish on the boat, then yeah, that was probably the ugliest my boat has seen, specifically coming north under the jamestown bridge it was 6 feet easy with very short periods. big time white knuckle factor.
that day things progressively got worse, then when the tide turned and it was wind against... not fun.
and for the record, nebe has a lot of experience at sea... probably the best peg boy i know ;)
He makes a great BN.
Im still sticking to my thought that 6 foot seas have not been sean at hope island since the last hurricane. :devil2: The Jamestown bridge area- Sure i believe that is possible...the tide roars through there at times, and when you have the wind pushing against those waves, things can get ugly. Same thing off castle hill..
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