Never trust the NOAA forecast

[piemma]

Headed out at 3:00 AM this morning. NOAA forcast said 5 to 10. Got around Warwick Light and it's 3 to 5' blowing 20 to 25 SW. Said OK this isn't so bad and it'll lay down. HAHA!!!

Just north of Hope Island and I'm getting into solid 4' with a 6' here and there with a chop on top because of the tide being opposite the wind. Said screw it and turned back and headed up to Prov. No fish, tough ride and a guest onboard from Cal. He did OK till the ride back then the Ralphs set in.

[fish4striper]

I gave up on that site, I use sailflow and buoyweather

[albin35]

NOAA
No
Observations
Are
Accurate

[Typhoon]

I'm heading to the canyons this weekend.... nervous about this

[tautog]

batten down the hatches and don life saving equip we're in for a bit of Mother Nature's bad breath.

[Pete F.]

The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) — Naval Oceanography Portal

[Fishoholic]

looks pretty light now..

PORTS

[RIROCKHOUND]

How many times are we going to go over this...

1. Check the tide stations and the buoys for actual wind before you leave the dock
2. Use The RI Sound forecast for south of the bridge winds
3. It always feels worse. Conimicut was 15kt gusts this AM. just feels crappy dead up the bay
4. 4-6ft means in the trough you are looking up and just see water higher than your head... we had 6's with some 8's last canyon trip.... trust me that's big. Even in the tide there, 3ft and short spacing can feel big.

I'm just glad you estimate fish size better than wave heights

[striperman36]

we're gonna go over it as many times as we do every year.

Sailflow, and surfer forecast for swells.

[Raven]

trust your gut instinct too

[Nebe]

hound... LOL! i was going to bust his chops about that..

I don't think Hope island saw 6 footers in hurricane BOB..

[piemma]

Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND

How many times are we going to go over this...

1. Check the tide stations and the buoys for actual wind before you leave the dock
2. Use The RI Sound forecast for south of the bridge winds
3. It always feels worse. Conimicut was 15kt gusts this AM. just feels crappy dead up the bay
4. 4-6ft means in the trough you are looking up and just see water higher than your head... we had 6's with some 8's last canyon trip.... trust me that's big. Even in the tide there, 3ft and short spacing can feel big.

I'm just glad you estimate fish size better than wave heights

1. I did
2. I did
3. You don't get whitcaps at 15KTs
4. When I was in the trought I had waves almost up to the T-Top. Yes, 3AM does make it look worse but it was big none the less.
5. And Nebe, since you are a "yakker" I do not expect any comments from you about what real men do in real boats.

[Mr. Sandman]

I find it reasonable but at times they have been off a lot, esp way offshore.

One thing to do is look at what is happening now and what is expected to come. it might be 5-10 now with 15-25 with higher gusts tonight and what happens is "tonight" comes faster than anticipated...like later this afternoon.

When I go offshore I check multiple weather sources and assume the worst.

That said, they do get it wrong from time to time....A year or so ago I recall listening to the weather radio while in Atlantis Canyon...they were saying it was 5-10 with 2-4 ' seas and it was to go to light and variable with seas less than 2'. The wind was easy 25 my hat flew off and seas were 10-12. I looked at my buddy and said...do you hear the forecast? what is wrong with this picture??? The next night around 3:00 am it finally dropped to light and variable but it was a difficult afternoon and evening.
Sometimes they are wrong, no question but in general I think they are not all that bad and you have to be ready for when they are wrong and prepare for that.
Weather prediction is more difficult than you think. It is similar to fluid flow prediction which is what I use to to do... Have you heard of the "butterfly effect"?... in theory, a butterfly flapping its wings in china can effect weather systems in the US ...what that means is you really have to model the entire globes atmosphere in fine detail to get anything accurate. If you do that the simulation is so complex and so slow (even with the worlds fastest computers) that the real weather system will come and go before the simulation is complete. So, they "simplify" the computer model and cut a few corners to get results sooner but at a cost of accuracy. This is esp true in hurricane path prediction and they run numerous models to approximate the path but they rarely hit it dead on. In any case... it is better than it use to be.

[piemma]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sandman

I find it reasonable but at times they have been off a lot, esp way offshore.

One thing to do is look at what is happening now and what is expected to come. it might be 5-10 now with 15-25 with higher gusts tonight and what happens is "tonight" comes faster than anticipated...like later this afternoon.

When I go offshore I check multiple weather sources and assume the worst.

That said, they do get it wrong from time to time....A year or so ago I recall listening to the weather radio while in Atlantis Canyon...they were saying it was 5-10 with 2-4 ' seas and it was to go to light and variable with seas less than 2'. The wind was easy 25 my hat flew off and seas were 10-12. I looked at my buddy and said...do you hear the forecast? what is wrong with this picture??? The next night around 3:00 am it finally dropped to light and variable but it was a difficult afternoon and evening.
Sometimes they are wrong, no question but in general I think they are not all that bad and you have to be ready for when they are wrong and prepare for that.
Weather prediction is more difficult than you think. It is similar to fluid flow prediction which is what I use to to do... Have you heard of the "butterfly effect"?... in theory, a butterfly flapping its wings in china can effect weather systems in the US ...what that means is you really have to model the entire globes atmosphere in fine detail to get anything accurate. If you do that the simulation is so complex and so slow (even with the worlds fastest computers) that the real weather system will come and go before the simulation is complete. So, they "simplify" the computer model and cut a few corners to get results sooner but at a cost of accuracy. This is esp true in hurricane path prediction and they run numerous models to approximate the path but they rarely hit it dead on. In any case... it is better than it use to be.

Great post. Thanks for the clarity

[likwid]

Originally Posted by piemma

3. You don't get whitcaps at 15KTs

In the shallow water up there you do.

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by piemma

1. I did
2. I did
3. You don't get whitcaps at 15KTs
4. When I was in the trought I had waves almost up to the T-Top. Yes, 3AM does make it look worse but it was big none the less.
5. And Nebe, since you are a "yakker" I do not expect any comments from you about what real men do in real boats.

Don't make me go all sciencey on you

Red arrows are @ 330am. Until 330am you had a ebbing spring tide + 15kts southerly wind = white caps.

[Sea Dangles]

I always check fishweather for a real time buoy observation. Couple that with NOAA and their guesswork for a good guesstimate.

[Typhoon]

Which leads me to my Canyon forecast for the weekend

Yes Fishweather says no NW or NE anywhere.

FRI
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BECOMING W TO NW 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4
TO 6 FT.

SAT
NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT SHIFTING E TO NE. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
$$

[piemma]

Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND

Don't make me go all sciencey on you

Red arrows are @ 330am. Until 330am you had a ebbing spring tide + 15kts southerly wind = white caps.

OK, I yield to the Doctor. I cannot win this battle. The war, perhaps, will be a different matter.

[Mr. Sandman]

Originally Posted by Typhoon

Which leads me to my Canyon forecast for the weekend

Yes Fishweather says no NW or NE anywhere.

Well, you have a possible monkey wrench thrown in...a dying tropical storm is headed NE offshore, so you will have a larger swell than a normally wind generated one.

[Typhoon]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sandman

Well, you have a possible monkey wrench thrown in...a dying tropical storm is headed NE offshore, so you will have a larger swell than a normally wind generated one.

I really really want to go....this is the boat we'll be going on. He's run it 22 knots in 6 fters on the way down from Maine.

[Mr. Sandman]

enjoy your trip!

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by Nebe

hound... LOL! i was going to bust his chops about that..

I don't think Hope island saw 6 footers in hurricane BOB..

Not so sure about that, at least a little further south
zacs was out there the same time I was in 2007, coming in from Narr, under the Jamestown bridge in late Sept. I thought I was done for. Waves looked to me to be 6+ . Every wave was an outloud "f**k" for a few miles. Bow was almost straight up at times and we rode down every wave. If I turned the boat sideways, we would have went over. I'll never forget that. I've been out in Newport with 4 ft swells and it was nothing compared to that day.

[Fishoholic]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

Not so sure about that, at least a little further south
zacs was out there the same time I was in 2007, coming in from Narr, under the Jamestown bridge in late Sept. I thought I was done for. Waves looked to me to be 6+ . Every wave was an outloud "f**k" for a few miles. Bow was almost straight up at times and we rode down every wave. If I turned the boat sideways, we would have went over. I'll never forget that. I've been out in Newport with 4 ft swells and it was nothing compared to that day.

I've seen it stand up under those bridges a few times on a good ebb to where it was close to that. But it was when no one had any business being out there and it wasn't quite 6'.. but close.

[MakoMike]

Storm swells will be long period and nothing to worry about, its the wind chop on top that'll make your life miserable.

[piemma]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

Not so sure about that, at least a little further south
zacs was out there the same time I was in 2007, coming in from Narr, under the Jamestown bridge in late Sept. I thought I was done for. Waves looked to me to be 6+ . Every wave was an outloud "f**k" for a few miles. Bow was almost straight up at times and we rode down every wave. If I turned the boat sideways, we would have went over. I'll never forget that. I've been out in Newport with 4 ft swells and it was nothing compared to that day.

Thanks for validating Jim. Nebe would know though. He's the old man of the sea with all his experience in boats on the Bay.

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by piemma

Thanks for validating Jim. Nebe would know though. He's the old man of the sea with all his experience in boats on the Bay.

He might not, but I know the stretch between the bridge and the Hill better than most...

south of the House on the Rock, w/ a big offshore swell. yes. It can stand up there. North of the bridge, not as much....

My point is still that you guys overestimate wave heights and wind speeds.....

[piemma]

I give up. No mas

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by piemma

I give up. No mas

War of attrition...

Next time it's a true 3-5ft outside I'll call you and we'll take a ride

[Nebe]

Originally Posted by piemma

Thanks for validating Jim. Nebe would know though. He's the old man of the sea with all his experience in boats on the Bay.

In about 5 more years, if you fish every day , you will catch up with my hours of boatng experience in the bay. I lived on a boat for most of my childhood and into my teen years and have sailed on just about every nook and crany of the east and west passage. I've been kayak fishing Newport since the early 90's.. :P I've also done offshore sailing passages that Gould blow your mind. So yes, I do have a little old man of the sea in me.
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