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-   -   Hurricane Bill - interesting path (http://www.striped-bass.com/Stripertalk/showthread.php?t=58834)

JohnR 08-18-2009 07:25 AM

Hurricane Bill - interesting path
 
Interesting early forecasted path

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...13W5_NL_sm.gif

spence 08-18-2009 07:33 AM

Looks like a slim chance it could stay south and miss the low pressure front that's supposed to push it offshore.

-spence

slow eddie 08-18-2009 07:35 AM

their predicting the low presure area will be over n.j. by the weekend and will push it out to sea. meanwhile, i'm putting oar locks on the house.
batten down the hatches matey.

Raven 08-18-2009 07:36 AM

whama jammer - we're over due

maybe we should hire Monica to do a beach exorcism

Back Beach 08-18-2009 07:44 AM

Watch out on the rocks this weekend. Higher than usual tides coupled with a big swell can be quite dangerous. Even if the storm misses us way east, there's still going to be some impact.

Mr. Sandman 08-18-2009 08:33 AM

I hate these %$%$%$%$ing things...this is headed right at us. I hope it goes away. Then again, it could screw up Obama's vacation and that is worth something.

BigFish 08-18-2009 08:37 AM

Al Roker says headed out to sea! You alarmists better gas up the car and stock up on water, milk, bread, batteries and candles!:uhuh:

Nebe 08-18-2009 08:47 AM

This will light up the choggie bite. I cant wait.

Typhoon 08-18-2009 08:57 AM

similar storm: August Gale

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1927_Nova_Scotia_hurricane

JohnR 08-18-2009 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Typhoon (Post 706011)

Interesting find - BTW - welcome to S-B

FishermanTim 08-18-2009 10:15 AM

At this point one of two things can happen.
1) The storm hits us head on, we batten down the hatches and ride it out. the fishing will be shut off for about a week while we all go into disaster recovery mode.
2) It goes out to sea as the current weather models predict. It churns up the surf, might create a late season algae bloom (red-tide), and may even push some of those large bass off of the tuna grounds back into the shallower shores.
Either way it'll be a change in what has been a very boring summer.
If it weren't for fresh water and my kayak, I wouldn't have much to brag about.

SirWinston 08-18-2009 11:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnR (Post 705986)
Interesting early forecasted path

'Interesting' is not the first choice of description when your first family vacation in six years (small kids) is on the shore in East Falmouth friday for a week .........:wall:

In fact, I can think of several very Saxon ones. All I can do is hope that the meteorologists are as accurate at soothsaying as they usually are, and that the blasted storm heads way out east.
Probably hubris, but.....

RIROCKHOUND 08-18-2009 11:03 AM

The really long range forecasts have it spinning further out that that picture, but still coming roughly as close before turning....

The Iceman 6 08-18-2009 11:25 AM

I've had some of my best fishing during hurricanes. I do like the name too.

Joe 08-18-2009 11:49 AM

I'm going down to Hazard Ave and get a video for my site of somebody getting washed away - then I'll get some PFD's and Korkers and make a killin'

BassDawg 08-18-2009 12:05 PM

HALLELUJAH!!!
funny sheeeet, as always, Joe!

this could be the END of the doldrums

and the beginning of the BITE :drool: :drool: :drool:

thanks to you Bill and the Boss for the projected path.
FINALLY, there WILL be SURF and just in tiime for the New!!!
:jump: :jump: :jump: :jump:

BassDawg 08-18-2009 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirWinston (Post 706035)
'Interesting' is not the first choice of description when your first family vacation in six years (small kids) is on the shore in East Famouth friday for a week .........:wall:

In fact, I can think of several very Saxon ones. All I can do is hope that the meteorologists are as accurate at soothsaying as they usually are, and that the blasted storm heads way out east.
Probably hubris, but.....

sorry about your vacation plans, SW.
hope it's just a glancing blow and not a stiff Noreaster uppercut.
:bl: :bl: :bl:

RIJIMMY 08-18-2009 12:32 PM

we're flying out Monday am, I hope all is quiet by then, I need a vacation bad.

Mr. Sandman 08-19-2009 05:51 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Cape Cod now in the cone of uncertainty. Watch out...this one could be the one. I don't like this path.

Al Roker...:rotf2: he is not weatherman, he is a TV personality.

nightfighter 08-19-2009 05:57 AM

Sunday/Monday forecasts showing 8-12' coastal, 10-15' outer coastal, and up to 35' on the Grand Banks.... Looks like the tuna trip window closes Saturday, at least for a few days.

Should at least have some good surf for Saturday's North Shore Leg at Plum Island.

RIROCKHOUND 08-19-2009 06:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Sandman (Post 706188)
Cape Cod now in the cone of uncertainty. Watch out...this one could be the one. I don't like this path.

Yeah, I was with you a day or so ago, but that High coming in should be big enough to block it and send it out to the Maritimes...

What do you mean? I saw Al Roker interviewing the cast of the Office... :jump1:

quick decision 08-19-2009 06:21 AM

Look, look at this. We got Hurricane Bill moving north off the Atlantic seaboard. Huge... getting massive. Two, this low south of Sable Island, ready to explode. Look at this. Three, a fresh cold front swooping down from Canada. But it's caught a ride on the jet stream... and is motoring hell-bent towards the Atlantic. What if Hurricane Bill runs smack into it? Add to the scenario this baby off Sable Island, scrounging for energy. She'll start feeding off both the Canadian cold front... and Hurricane Bill. You could be a meteorologist all your life... and never see something like this. It would be a disaster of epic proportions. It would be... the perfect storm.

likwid 08-19-2009 06:22 AM

From a weather router:

Quote:

Only the GFS model takes Bill right down the pipe for Bermuda. The rest of the models are more westerly in their tracks and the official forecast from NHC/NWS assumes the western models are correct and takes a slightly west biased route.

All of the guidance is predicated on the troughs out in the Atlantic and the yet to form trough in the far Eastern US to affect the high pressure out in the Atlantic (Bill's steering wheel).

As the storm only appears to be threatening Bermuda at the moment, Bill will need to find the needle in the haystack to threaten life and property and while that is possible, I am not losing any sleep over his forecast path....Yet. Let's see how dramatic the NW turn is in 36-72 hours and that will give us a much better sense of where he is going.

Also keep your eye on the disturbed weather between Cuba/ Bahamas/Florida. Nothing yet and the NHC says "low probs" but they had "No Probs" in the area where Claudette formed...

Crafty Angler 08-19-2009 08:01 AM

I dunno, they changed the predicted track as of this AM bringing it closer to the Cape

Without a doubt, it bears watching at this point...:smokin:

Raven, ya might wanna check with your Indian friend on this one...I've got a call in to the old Portagee down the street but he's out right now

He may be in the yard securing his tomato plants

likwid 08-19-2009 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crafty Angler (Post 706211)
I dunno, they changed the predicted track as of this AM bringing it closer to the Cape

NHC doesn't have much faith in that

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...gif/084214.gif

Crafty Angler 08-19-2009 08:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by likwid (Post 706212)
NHC doesn't have much faith in that

I'm gonna wait for word from the old Portagoosie down the street, myself

And check the 11 AM NHC update just to be sure

likwid 08-19-2009 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crafty Angler (Post 706214)
I'm gonna wait for word from the old Portagoosie down the street, myself

Make sure to check how many bottles he's gone through first. ;)

Mike P 08-19-2009 09:41 AM

Isn't today the anniversary of out last pinwheeled visitor, Hurricane Bob in the early 90s?

The Cape is going to see gale force winds and high surf no matter what, looking at that track. And you'll get surf all along the mid-Atlantic bight.

BigFish 08-19-2009 09:47 AM

Candles......check

Batteries.....check

Milk.....check

Bread.....check

Water.....check

Figures we are headed to Wellfleet for the week starting Saturday!!! At least we will be on the harbor side protected!!:uhuh:

striperman36 08-19-2009 09:58 AM

Near miss Sunday
 
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...s_slp_108s.gif

Crafty Angler 08-19-2009 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by likwid (Post 706215)
Make sure to check how many bottles he's gone through first. ;)

Will do - on my end down this way, I'm hoping it won't be more than a 2 bottle storm...:gu:

Maybe Karl F will pipe up with a prediction for you guys on the Cape - he's usually right on the money...:laughs:

striperman36 08-19-2009 10:10 AM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...s_slp_120s.gif

striperman36 08-19-2009 10:11 AM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...s_slp_120s.gif

striperman36 08-19-2009 10:12 AM

This is as close as the MSLP shows it
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...s_slp_108s.gif

likwid 08-19-2009 10:34 AM

GFS agrees for now.

Lotta bark, no bite.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/4e/gfs_pres_4e.gif

NS may get the crap kicked out of it though.

Mr. Sandman 08-19-2009 03:38 PM

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmap...=NAM&domain=US


Look at the last few images...this is headed right at us. The next 24 hours will be tell us if it intends to turn. :hidin:

Raven 08-19-2009 04:47 PM

what?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BigFish (Post 706245)
Candles......check

Batteries.....check

Milk.....check

Bread.....check

Water.....check

!:uhuh:

NO COOKIES ????

Fisherwoman 08-19-2009 04:48 PM

Every year I look for one to come by and stir the pot for the doldrums to be no more, We want it close to push those fish off the bank and in our way. But not close enough for us to sustain alot of damage. BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Cool Beans 08-19-2009 05:53 PM

If it acts anything like it's namesake, it will get all spun up, followed by glancing "blow" and a little squirt onto the "beach"... I don't think we have anything to worry about :rotf2:

likwid 08-19-2009 06:35 PM

K.
No comment for now.

Quote:

It is entirely possible that Bill will take the forecast path but a scary specter rose its head this afternoon...The high pressure that was scheduled to have some weakness in it allowing Bill to make a continuous right turn showed hints of not breaking down quite the way the models predicted in the 30-060 hour time window. The low pressure system expected to sweep Bill out to the North and then rapidly NE may be either delayed or not quite as deep as originally anticipated. None of these are facts (yet) and the storm may very well play out along the tightly clustered model consensus but with a storm this strong and fairly large in size, it is worth watching.
:hidin:


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