Round 2 - Katia (Tracking, venting, swearing...)
 

Let's see. TS Hurricane Katia has been trending well west of previous tracks. Interesting. A couple days ago it was forecast to go east of Bermuda, now it is forecast to go west of Bermuda.

It's coming

Rumor has it that Mother Nature got really pessed at Drudge for pushing the Irene was hyped story, so she's going to give us the jab uppercut combination.
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if TD 13 takes it's time coming up, it's not going to be pretty

actually with the vertical wind shear and the drier air she is moving into, she may fizzle out.

little more northward on the track once she clears Bermuda Thursday

Hurricane Katia : Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground

Should make for some nice surfing...if I surfed.

-spence

More to the left.

Tropical Storm Katia : Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground

Depending on the interaction of Lee and the low trough bringing Lee to the NE by Tuesday-Wednesday, we could see a real mess next week or just high surf.
Anything not cleaned up by Tuesday in western ma is going to get reflooded mid-week

Tropical Storm KATIA Forecast Discussion

Hatteras is in the cone of DOOooOoooooooOooOoooooOOOOM

Hope it makes those swings indicated by the models or so may be our turn in the cone of doom.

depends on what the stalled front mid-week across the eastern part of the country does

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurri...eat_2011-09-03

If it does come my awning isn't going back up again.

-spence

i hope it misses Vermont

they are in a world of troubles

Remnants, of TS Lee, is looking at this time to take the same track the the western edges of Irene did. Which is NY - Vt.

Haven't put the generator away yet nor put back the flyables, if
that's a word. :)

hurricane Lee is on the way...

gonna arrive next sunday

fairly close to a full moon

It appears to be a swing and a miss, by friday into Saturday, there is a ridge of high pressure stretching across the north atlantic, both Lee and Katia bounce off of it and exit stage right..

Here is the model animation for the GFS and NAM , where you can see the pressure gradients and the resulting action modeled for Katia

Maps : Weather Underground

As a tropical cyclone, Lee is deader than Kelsey's nuts.

Katia will be a cat 3 by the end of today.

I see the GFS track, but----the ECMWF model has it coming a lot closer to us than the rest of the models. Close enough to bring TS strength winds over the outer Cape and ACK.

ECMWF has been an outlier all week and slow to take the ridge into effect

The GFS has been dead on target for most of these events and the primary one I look at

GFS only came onto target for Irene 36 hours out from first landfall.
Its been terrible this season as far as resolution anything beyond that.

Oh, they're taking the ridge into effect, all right---they just have it playing a very different role than the GFS model. ;)

Attachment 48317

The GFS had Irene making landfall right around the CT/RI border less than 48 hours before it finally landed.

TiMing is every things
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Predicted to turn nicely now. Hopefully it keeps turning far away from us!

This is still worth watching. Hit cat 4 for a while and should hold shape which will make the western edge stronger. Moisture coming from the south is making this a little bit harder to predict when it will turn north.

Round 3?
 

Katia is a dud except for some BIG swells coming into the south coastal areas and making for an interesting HelenH canyon trip this weekend but time to start a new thread:

Round 3 - Maria (tracking, venting, swearing, etc.):wall:

Much more interesting track!