[likwid]

From a weather router:

Only the GFS model takes Bill right down the pipe for Bermuda. The rest of the models are more westerly in their tracks and the official forecast from NHC/NWS assumes the western models are correct and takes a slightly west biased route.

All of the guidance is predicated on the troughs out in the Atlantic and the yet to form trough in the far Eastern US to affect the high pressure out in the Atlantic (Bill's steering wheel).

As the storm only appears to be threatening Bermuda at the moment, Bill will need to find the needle in the haystack to threaten life and property and while that is possible, I am not losing any sleep over his forecast path....Yet. Let's see how dramatic the NW turn is in 36-72 hours and that will give us a much better sense of where he is going.

Also keep your eye on the disturbed weather between Cuba/ Bahamas/Florida. Nothing yet and the NHC says "low probs" but they had "No Probs" in the area where Claudette formed...