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Old 08-19-2009, 06:22 AM   #1
likwid
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From a weather router:

Quote:
Only the GFS model takes Bill right down the pipe for Bermuda. The rest of the models are more westerly in their tracks and the official forecast from NHC/NWS assumes the western models are correct and takes a slightly west biased route.

All of the guidance is predicated on the troughs out in the Atlantic and the yet to form trough in the far Eastern US to affect the high pressure out in the Atlantic (Bill's steering wheel).

As the storm only appears to be threatening Bermuda at the moment, Bill will need to find the needle in the haystack to threaten life and property and while that is possible, I am not losing any sleep over his forecast path....Yet. Let's see how dramatic the NW turn is in 36-72 hours and that will give us a much better sense of where he is going.

Also keep your eye on the disturbed weather between Cuba/ Bahamas/Florida. Nothing yet and the NHC says "low probs" but they had "No Probs" in the area where Claudette formed...

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Old 08-19-2009, 08:01 AM   #2
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I dunno, they changed the predicted track as of this AM bringing it closer to the Cape

Without a doubt, it bears watching at this point...

Raven, ya might wanna check with your Indian friend on this one...I've got a call in to the old Portagee down the street but he's out right now

He may be in the yard securing his tomato plants

"There is no royal road to this heavy surf-fishing. With all the appliances for comfort experience can suggest, there is a certain amount of hard work to be done and exposure to be bourne as a part of the price of success." From "Striped Bass," Scribner's Magazine, 1881.
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Old 08-19-2009, 08:06 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crafty Angler View Post
I dunno, they changed the predicted track as of this AM bringing it closer to the Cape
NHC doesn't have much faith in that


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Old 08-19-2009, 08:12 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by likwid View Post
NHC doesn't have much faith in that
I'm gonna wait for word from the old Portagoosie down the street, myself

And check the 11 AM NHC update just to be sure

"There is no royal road to this heavy surf-fishing. With all the appliances for comfort experience can suggest, there is a certain amount of hard work to be done and exposure to be bourne as a part of the price of success." From "Striped Bass," Scribner's Magazine, 1881.
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Old 08-19-2009, 08:14 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crafty Angler View Post
I'm gonna wait for word from the old Portagoosie down the street, myself
Make sure to check how many bottles he's gone through first.

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Old 08-19-2009, 09:41 AM   #6
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Isn't today the anniversary of out last pinwheeled visitor, Hurricane Bob in the early 90s?

The Cape is going to see gale force winds and high surf no matter what, looking at that track. And you'll get surf all along the mid-Atlantic bight.

Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools, because they have to say something.
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Old 08-19-2009, 09:47 AM   #7
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Candles......check

Batteries.....check

Milk.....check

Bread.....check

Water.....check

Figures we are headed to Wellfleet for the week starting Saturday!!! At least we will be on the harbor side protected!!

Almost time to get our fish on!!!
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Old 08-19-2009, 10:06 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by likwid View Post
Make sure to check how many bottles he's gone through first.
Will do - on my end down this way, I'm hoping it won't be more than a 2 bottle storm...

Maybe Karl F will pipe up with a prediction for you guys on the Cape - he's usually right on the money...

"There is no royal road to this heavy surf-fishing. With all the appliances for comfort experience can suggest, there is a certain amount of hard work to be done and exposure to be bourne as a part of the price of success." From "Striped Bass," Scribner's Magazine, 1881.
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Old 08-19-2009, 09:45 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crafty Angler View Post
Will do - on my end down this way, I'm hoping it won't be more than a 2 bottle storm...

Maybe Karl F will pipe up with a prediction for you guys on the Cape - he's usually right on the money...
... ...

we are due... been 18 years since Bob....
week without power...except at our store... only cold beer on lower cape for a week... man we was swamped... scored lotsa free firewood... but... I digress...a bit... the t-shirts... "I got Blown By Bob on Cape Cod"...guy that did those up that year made a killin... i ran into him tonight at work...asked him if he started on the "I got Blown By Bill on Cape Cod" t-shirts yet... ... he said he already had the art work done, and is gonna wait a day or so... to see the track... he know he has to blast them out before NSTAR pukes....IF we get it....

we is selling tons of bottles, regardless....but it will be at least a 2 bottle storm, no matter where it makes land fall... and I am making sure I have a full tank of chainsaw gas, atleast two extra sharp chains... and that the motorhome has a full load of gas, propane, and water, and made sure the generator is in good working order today.... plus the wife , I am sure, will load up on provisions.....just in case... ..

Just walked out of work a bit ago...it is a helluva lot more humid now, than earlier in the day...and the air is stagnant...no breeze...

my Mom would call this past weeks weather... a "weather breeder"....
an 83 year old I know told me tonight, his bones tell him it's coming..
and says it will pass right over Falmouth... ...

who knows???



Only Time will tell....
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Old 08-20-2009, 09:13 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crafty Angler View Post
I'm gonna wait for word from the old Portagoosie down the street, myself

And check the 11 AM NHC update just to be sure
Doesnt sound so bad according to Weather Manny

http://portuguesefireman.com/files/1...er_Manny_2.mp3
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Old 08-20-2009, 09:38 AM   #11
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Doesnt sound so bad according to Weather Manny

http://portuguesefireman.com/files/1...er_Manny_2.mp3
LMAO everytime I hear Weather Manny

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Old 08-20-2009, 10:46 AM   #12
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I'll start worrying about it on Saturday. Maybe I should get another propane tank and fill it, so we'll have the grill. Or I can just grab an extra bag of charcoal for that other grill.

Maybe it'll hit us hard enough to get me out of jury duty on Monday

Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools, because they have to say something.
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Old 08-20-2009, 01:58 PM   #13
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Thumbs up oh he's a RIOT

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LMAO everytime I hear Weather Manny
listened to it ah Twice

wicked funny

Damn those new yorkers LOL
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