Good news for the future ?

[buckman]

http://news.maryland.gov/dnr/2014/10...eproduction-2/

Good read

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by buckman

http://news.maryland.gov/dnr/2014/10...eproduction-2/

Good read

I read it as polishing a turd... we just squeaked to 'average' and it is healthy 2014? BS

[JLH]

Wow just under the moving average. I guess everything must be fine now, no need for tighter regulations...

[tysdad115]

Convenient this come out just prior to the vote. Status quo...

[spinncognito]

Originally Posted by tysdad115

Convenient this come out just prior to the vote. Status quo...

At the meetings they said this was gonna come out mid-November. I still think we are gonna see the 25% cut and 1 @ 32" rec

[Nebe]

Those horrible spawning years around the last moratorium don't really help things when you look for an "average". Polishing a turd is a great description
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[BigFish]

When politics is involved there is always turd polishing going on! Its all bull#^&#^&#^&#^& and they expect the public to gobble it up like Pavlov's dog......and most do!!!

[Nebe]

Furthermore. The term "average" can be viewed 2 ways. A statistical average or "just average" meaning not bad. Not good. That chart is a statistical average and means nothing when you are using data from years that bass were almost put on the endangered species list.
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[Jenn]

Originally Posted by Nebe

Furthermore. The term "average" can be viewed 2 ways. A statistical average or "just average" meaning not bad. Not good. That chart is a statistical average and means nothing when you are using data from years that bass were almost put on the endangered species list.
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Exactly, it really means nothing of overall health of the species and numbers but more a snapshot of where they are at recently. It's all relative to the current situation.

Sort of like the argument I just had with someone yesterday about pay raises. Their argument was that a % raise on performance was the only way to fairly issues raises. I say how so? Most of us have experienced a work situation where one person was grossly overpaid to begin with and one underpaid. Even if underpaid performs better and therefore gets a better % raise every year they may still never reach the same pay rate as the underperforming, overpaid person.

[Clammer]

Jenn I,ll give ya that [BIG] raise ><><><><

[Sgt Striper]

Reality check please!!! Down here in Jersey there are NO fish! The LBI Classic Tournament has now gone 16 days without a single weigh in, north of us has nothing also. Spring time was just as bad and according to this survey we are on the road to recovery?? Well you can take these surveys and wipe your with them!!! Welcome to the 80's boys or even worse.

[MakoMike]

Guess this crew is a "the glass is half empty" type?

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

Guess this crew is a "the glass is half empty" type?

No, it is not a 'crash' in YOY compared to previous surveys, but don't proclaim the year a 'healthy reproduction' right in the headline when you are still below the long-term average

[JohnR]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

Guess this crew is a "the glass is half empty" type?

One average stat does not a recovery make ?

[numbskull]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

Guess this crew is a "the glass is half empty" type?

The glass is more than 1/2 empty, Mike. Truth is that neither you nor I will likely be fishing on these fish once they are large. Our fish are already out there......what is left of them.....and these good year classes just give the fish managers justification to kill them more quickly.

[MAKAI]

What's the difference between an optimist and a pessimist ?

The pessimist is better informed !
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[bart]

Originally Posted by MAKAI

What's the difference between an optimist and a pessimist ?

The pessimist is better informed !
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I like that.

[MakoMike]

FWIW, my take on it is that it confirms my suspicions that the current SSB has the ability to produce good year classes.

[JLH]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

FWIW, my take on it is that it confirms my suspicions that the current SSB has the ability to produce good year classes.

How do you get from below average to good? It's not the average year classes that are sustaining the SSB it's the few well above average years from around 1993 to 2003. 2011 was the only "good" year class we have seen in the last 8 or 9 years.

It's also no longer the current SSB as a good number of the breeding age fish from 1993 to 2003 that were responsible for the 2014 YOY numbers were killed of this season with relatively few fish maturing to replace them.

[MakoMike]

Originally Posted by JLH

How do you get from below average to good? It's not the average year classes that are sustaining the SSB it's the few well above average years from around 1993 to 2003. 2011 was the only "good" year class we have seen in the last 8 or 9 years.

Remember that those 1993 and on great year classes were produced by the abysmally low SSB of the moratorium years.

[Clammer]

some people will just never f #^&#^&#^&#^&#^& get it ><><><><

[JLH]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

Remember that those 1993 and on great year classes were produced by the abysmally low SSB of the moratorium years.

Yes that is true and we got very lucky that those great years came when they did. There is clearly a large amount of variability in the YOY numbers regardless of the size of the SSB. What is scary looking at the numbers and charts is that we have only had one good YOY class in the last 8-9 years and that was with SSB at numbers that were, with the exception of the last couple of years, well above average. We are quickly decimating the population of older fish that currently make up the SSB and there are few fish in the pipeline to replace them. It is possible that we could get very lucky again and have a few banner years from a very low SSB but I don't really think of that is a good management plan.

[MakoMike]

Originally Posted by JLH

Yes that is true and we got very lucky that those great years came when they did. There is clearly a large amount of variability in the YOY numbers regardless of the size of the SSB. What is scary looking at the numbers and charts is that we have only had one good YOY class in the last 8-9 years and that was with SSB at numbers that were, with the exception of the last couple of years, well above average. We are quickly decimating the population of older fish that currently make up the SSB and there are few fish in the pipeline to replace them. It is possible that we could get very lucky again and have a few banner years from a very low SSB but I don't really think of that is a good management plan.

What you don't seem to understand is that the spawning success of the species in the Chessie is determined by the weather. Last I looked there was nothing we could do to control that. The point I was trying to make is that when we get the right weather even a very low SSB can produce huge YOY indexes.

[Slipknot]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

FWIW, my take on it is that it confirms my suspicions that the current SSB has the ability to produce good year classes.

has the ability and will are two different things

time will tell

[Green Light]

Interesting report. But, it's only speaking to MD and VA. A comprehensive report broken down by state from ME to NC would a very interesting read. ;-)

[MakoMike]

Originally Posted by Green Light

Interesting report. But, it's only speaking to MD and VA. A comprehensive report broken down by state from ME to NC would a very interesting read. ;-)

I can save you the effort of trying to find it, the YOY index for all of the states, except for NY, is zero. All of the migrating striped bass come from the Chesapeake bay spawn. NY has a breeding population in the Hudson river but they don't migrate very far, most never get more than 50 miles from the river.

[Green Light]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

I can save you the effort of trying to find it, the YOY index for all of the states, except for NY, is zero. All of the migrating striped bass come from the Chesapeake bay spawn. NY has a breeding population in the Hudson river but they don't migrate very far, most never get more than 50 miles from the river.

MakoMike,

I agree with you that the YOY index has been historically measured in the Chesapeake bay. I must disclose, I am not a biologist! :-) But, I do know that striped bass spawn in other river systems. Perhaps these populations are too small to justify measuring them? I frankly do not know. Again, I am not a biologist! :-). But, the scientific/analytical part of my brain cannot help but to be curious about the missing data.

Again, I agree with you! :-).

[MakoMike]

Originally Posted by Green Light

MakoMike,

I agree with you that the YOY index has been historically measured in the Chesapeake bay. I must disclose, I am not a biologist! :-) But, I do know that striped bass spawn in other river systems. Perhaps these populations are too small to justify measuring them? I frankly do not know. Again, I am not a biologist! :-). But, the scientific/analytical part of my brain cannot help but to be curious about the missing data.

Again, I agree with you! :-).

FYI. New York state does also collect YOY data, but as I said, those fish don't migrate very far.

[Green Light]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

FYI. New York state does also collect YOY data, but as I said, those fish don't migrate very far.

Cool! Good to know!! Thank you MakoMike.

[MAKAI]

Blinded by science !
Statistics can be used to dance to many tunes.
But as someone who has been obsessed with chasing this fish since the late 60's, I'll trust the empirical evidence. The near shore fishery for bass is a shadow of what was. Many spots that would hold decent fish even in the lean years are seldom producing at all. Some still do but in general these fish are not as wide spread as the past.
We are too greedy to back off a bit. The keep em all attitude I've seen this year is more than I can recall seeing. As long as you can score $100 a fish, good luck with the culling, stacking, highgrading and poaching. Non enforceable and the fines are to lame to be a deterrent. A part of me wants this fishery to go right down the tubes, just to teach us all a Fn lesson. 😠
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