Good news for the future ?

[MakoMike]

FWIW, my take on it is that it confirms my suspicions that the current SSB has the ability to produce good year classes.

[JLH]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

FWIW, my take on it is that it confirms my suspicions that the current SSB has the ability to produce good year classes.

How do you get from below average to good? It's not the average year classes that are sustaining the SSB it's the few well above average years from around 1993 to 2003. 2011 was the only "good" year class we have seen in the last 8 or 9 years.

It's also no longer the current SSB as a good number of the breeding age fish from 1993 to 2003 that were responsible for the 2014 YOY numbers were killed of this season with relatively few fish maturing to replace them.

[MakoMike]

Originally Posted by JLH

How do you get from below average to good? It's not the average year classes that are sustaining the SSB it's the few well above average years from around 1993 to 2003. 2011 was the only "good" year class we have seen in the last 8 or 9 years.

Remember that those 1993 and on great year classes were produced by the abysmally low SSB of the moratorium years.

[Clammer]

some people will just never f #^&#^&#^&#^&#^& get it ><><><><

[JLH]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

Remember that those 1993 and on great year classes were produced by the abysmally low SSB of the moratorium years.

Yes that is true and we got very lucky that those great years came when they did. There is clearly a large amount of variability in the YOY numbers regardless of the size of the SSB. What is scary looking at the numbers and charts is that we have only had one good YOY class in the last 8-9 years and that was with SSB at numbers that were, with the exception of the last couple of years, well above average. We are quickly decimating the population of older fish that currently make up the SSB and there are few fish in the pipeline to replace them. It is possible that we could get very lucky again and have a few banner years from a very low SSB but I don't really think of that is a good management plan.

[MakoMike]

Originally Posted by JLH

Yes that is true and we got very lucky that those great years came when they did. There is clearly a large amount of variability in the YOY numbers regardless of the size of the SSB. What is scary looking at the numbers and charts is that we have only had one good YOY class in the last 8-9 years and that was with SSB at numbers that were, with the exception of the last couple of years, well above average. We are quickly decimating the population of older fish that currently make up the SSB and there are few fish in the pipeline to replace them. It is possible that we could get very lucky again and have a few banner years from a very low SSB but I don't really think of that is a good management plan.

What you don't seem to understand is that the spawning success of the species in the Chessie is determined by the weather. Last I looked there was nothing we could do to control that. The point I was trying to make is that when we get the right weather even a very low SSB can produce huge YOY indexes.

[Nebe]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

What you don't seem to understand is that the spawning success of the species in the Chessie is determined by the weather. Last I looked there was nothing we could do to control that. The point I was trying to make is that when we get the right weather even a very low SSB can produce huge YOY indexes.

Which is why this chart is useless, and why the true data which should be used to judge the health if the fishery should come from actual fisherman who are involved with the fish on a daily basis. When you have a huge majority of fishermen yelling that there is a problem, then there is a problem. The greater problem (just like the last moratorium) is the commercial fishermen and charter boat owners who say that everything is fine because they see dollar signs.

I'd much rather be remembered as the guy who fought for the health if the fishery than the guy who fought for the health of his profits.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[Clammer]

Mike ,, as far as the Hudson fish traveling ...........I have aplace I fish along with a few members on the site ...........Its a 90% holdover fishery ............5 to 10 years ago we could catch fish til we were just tired .........it has been a steady decline to the point that we went from a fishery that could equal 100 fish a day per boat if you wanted to do that to actually being shut-out .
I,ve had conversations with Bob ;Got Stripers , Who in my opinion is the best jig & plastic fisherman I have ever met .
He told me he had also gotten skunked & its at a point that we no longer make that trip .
That,s not a exception ..its the normal just about everywhere ............Just because BI held a huge amount of cows for the majority of the season ........ all that proves there [were] still holding places & all it really did by the massive killing of the large fish by rec,s commercials & charter boats .........was put a BIG dent in the breeding population of the S/B
also the place we fished for years as a holdover fishery I know of 6 fish that had been tagged .I personally had two >>>>>>>>>>>>>>all the fish were tagged in the Hudson river ><><:hang OH btw this fishery is in MA .a hell of alot further than 50 miles from the Hudson ><><>

[MakoMike]

Originally Posted by Nebe

Which is why this chart is useless, and why the true data which should be used to judge the health if the fishery should come from actual fisherman who are involved with the fish on a daily basis. When you have a huge majority of fishermen yelling that there is a problem, then there is a problem. The greater problem (just like the last moratorium) is the commercial fishermen and charter boat owners who say that everything is fine because they see dollar signs.

I'd much rather be remembered as the guy who fought for the health if the fishery than the guy who fought for the health of his profits.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

What does that have to do with anything I said?

And I don't agree that because a huge majority of the fishermen say there is a problem, then there really is a problem. Most of the fishermen who say there is a problem have gotten used to the fishery when the SSB was at 250% of the objective. Back in the 50's and 60s there were far fewer fish being caught and that was considered normal.

Oh and BTW - I generally don't do striped bass charters, so I'm not putting $$ before the health of the fishery.

[JLH]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

What you don't seem to understand is that the spawning success of the species in the Chessie is determined by the weather. Last I looked there was nothing we could do to control that. The point I was trying to make is that when we get the right weather even a very low SSB can produce huge YOY indexes.

While the weather does play an important part in spawning success it has no place in management discussions because it is entirely beyond our control. You obviously can't manage a species based on the weather so focus on the factors that an be influenced.

History does show that a low SSB can produce a big YOY index given ideal conditions but it doesn't mean that it will happen again.

[MakoMike]

Originally Posted by JLH

While the weather does play an important part in spawning success it has no place in management discussions because it is entirely beyond our control. You obviously can't manage a species based on the weather so focus on the factors that an be influenced.

History does show that a low SSB can produce a big YOY index given ideal conditions but it doesn't mean that it will happen again.

Weather plays a huge role in lots of activities, which are all managed either by the government or privately. Ignoring the impact of weather on any given weather dependent activity is sure to bring a management failure. What the managers are trying to do right now is to keep the SSB high enough so when we do get the right weather there will be huge spawning success.

[Slipknot]

Originally Posted by MakoMike

FWIW, my take on it is that it confirms my suspicions that the current SSB has the ability to produce good year classes.

has the ability and will are two different things

time will tell