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09-02-2010, 06:15 AM
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#31
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Certifiable Intertidal Anguiologist
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Somewhere between OOB & west of Watch Hill
Posts: 35,288
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Yes, this is going to be a real problem on the Cape, RI, LI - mainly the Cape and Islands.
Category 3 dropping to 2 (hopefully).
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~Fix the Bait~ ~Pogies Forever~
Striped Bass Fishing - All Stripers
Kobayashi Maru Election - there is no way to win.
Apocalypse is Coming:
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09-02-2010, 06:16 AM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Reading Mass/Newburyport/merrimack river
Posts: 3,749
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Ch.5 had the old boy creeping a little closer than yesterday, but hooking to the north... looks like you guy's to the south have more to worry about than we do up north.... I'll fish tonight and if it looks Iffy, i'll haul at 1Am... at least the ramp will be empty...
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A good run is better than a bad stand!
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09-02-2010, 06:26 AM
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#33
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Seldom Seen
Join Date: May 2001
Posts: 10,543
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Tracking closer than yesterday...
Should I, or shouldn't I?..... Peace of mind would have me haul it out, since I'll be leaving Friday afternoon for a wedding in Burlington Vermont. But it will be all over by Saturday AM... Then again, I'm moored at the far end of the mooring field, the end that will be the collection area if any of the couple hundred boats north of me get loose. Trailer is ready... If I haul, it will be on the evening tide. Won't have to worry about others' boats getting loose if it is in the front yard.
But should be a good night to fish the surf tonight, and tomorrow.....
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“Americans have the right and advantage of being armed, unlike the people of other countries, whose leaders are afraid to trust them with arms.” – James Madison.
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09-02-2010, 06:46 AM
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#34
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Old Guy
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Mansfield, MA
Posts: 8,760
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The track is 20-40 east of ACK.
The NGFDL is not a good performer for this storm, the GFS and the newer HWRF are the 2 to closely watch. 2nd is the NAM
Remember there is still a pct of inaccuracy in the models, about 100 mi 36 hours
Last edited by striperman36; 09-02-2010 at 07:04 AM..
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09-02-2010, 12:07 PM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Newtown, CT
Posts: 5,659
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Doubled the lines yesterday, not much more I can do. Hauling her is not an option.
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09-02-2010, 12:33 PM
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#36
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President - S-B Chapter - Kelly Clarkson Fan Club
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Rowley
Posts: 3,781
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nightfighter
Should I, or shouldn't I?..... Peace of mind would have me haul it out, since I'll be leaving Friday afternoon for a wedding in Burlington Vermont. But it will be all over by Saturday AM... Then again, I'm moored at the far end of the mooring field, the end that will be the collection area if any of the couple hundred boats north of me get loose. Trailer is ready... If I haul, it will be on the evening tide. Won't have to worry about others' boats getting loose if it is in the front yard.
But should be a good night to fish the surf tonight, and tomorrow.....
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I don't think it's gonna be as bad around our parts, but since you are gonna be away, I'd prob just haul it, cause it would make me nuts all weekend thinking about it ya know?
My kayak is hualed and safely stowed  |
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09-02-2010, 01:31 PM
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#37
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Also known as OAK
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Westlery, RI
Posts: 10,413
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Quote:
Originally Posted by striperman36
The NGFDL is not a good performer for this storm, the GFS and the newer HWRF are the 2 to closely watch. 2nd is the NAM
Remember there is still a pct of inaccuracy in the models, about 100 mi 36 hours
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Except of course, as of 2p updates, the storm was West of all the models by 25 miles or so...
Tropical Storm: Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts : Weather Underground |
Bryan
Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&
"For once I agree with Spence. UGH. I just hope I don't get the urge to go start buying armani suits to wear in my shop"
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09-02-2010, 01:42 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: orange ct
Posts: 2,992
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Bryan- you make a great point. Below are all of the models and Earl as of 2 pm and Earl is west of every model  |
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09-02-2010, 01:43 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: orange ct
Posts: 2,992
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hit the wrong key
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09-02-2010, 07:29 PM
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#40
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Oblivious // Grunt, Grunt Master
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: over the hill
Posts: 6,682
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First good news. Sounds like Earl lost significant strength today.
Weather Blog : Weather Underground |
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09-02-2010, 07:40 PM
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#41
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Old Guy
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Mansfield, MA
Posts: 8,760
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Quote:
Originally Posted by numbskull
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wind shear and colder water are death for hurricanes |
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09-02-2010, 08:01 PM
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: N.K.
Posts: 1,330
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I hope earl sputters and dies.Wife is supposed to fly down south this weekend.I need to re assess all my gear and get ready for fall.
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09-02-2010, 09:57 PM
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#43
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Old Guy
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Mansfield, MA
Posts: 8,760
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BBBBBByeeeeeeee!!!
Statellite and reconnaissance fixes show that Earl has turned toward
the north-northeast...and the initial motion estimate is 015/15.
The track model guidance remains tightly clustered and shows an
increase in forward speed and a turn toward the northeast in the
next 24 to 36 hours as Earl is captured by a large mid- to upper-
level trough moving into eastern North America. Based on the
initial position and motion...the track forecast has been adjusted
a little to the east of the previous package...but lies on the left
side of the guidance suite. Later forecasts may be adjusted farther
eastward if the current motion to the east of due north continues.
Southwesterly shear of 15 to
20 knots is currently analyzed over the cyclone by UW-CIMSS and the
SHIPS model...and outflow is now restricted in the southwest
quadrant. Earl should continue to slowly weaken as it moves
northward over cooler waters and shear increases. Model fields and
cyclone phase space diagrams show Earl becoming extratropical by 48
hours...and being absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone by 72
hours. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward
slightly in agreement with the icon consensus.
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09-03-2010, 05:08 AM
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#44
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Oblivious // Grunt, Grunt Master
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: over the hill
Posts: 6,682
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As I read it this am,
NE gusts to 65
storm surge @4 feet
Works for me.
Still time to run out and buy the wife a rake.
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09-03-2010, 05:20 AM
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#45
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Permanently Disconnected
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 12,647
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The blow job that never was
time to hype the crap out of every storm again.
Ought to be good this winter. 3" of snow will now be a storm of MEGA proportions
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09-03-2010, 05:54 AM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Location: South of Boston
Posts: 2,605
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Quote:
Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&
The blow job that never was
time to hype the crap out of every storm again.
Ought to be good this winter. 3" of snow will now be a storm of MEGA proportions
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At some point int he last 15 years or so the stations have decided that weather sells. It is obnoxious how much time they spend on the weather and how much they hype storms.  |
The charm of fishing is that it is the pursuit of what is elusive but attainable, a perpetual series of occasions for hope. ~John Buchan
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09-03-2010, 07:03 AM
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#47
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Certifiable Intertidal Anguiologist
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Somewhere between OOB & west of Watch Hill
Posts: 35,288
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A dusting is one thing, this is something else. People will die, things will get broken. The more this moves east, the less of both will happen.
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~Fix the Bait~ ~Pogies Forever~
Striped Bass Fishing - All Stripers
Kobayashi Maru Election - there is no way to win.
Apocalypse is Coming:
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09-03-2010, 07:05 AM
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#48
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Old Guy
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Mansfield, MA
Posts: 8,760
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Newport
Today: Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 79. Southeast wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to between 13 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Tonight: Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 68. North wind 29 to 39 mph decreasing to between 28 and 33 mph. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.
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09-03-2010, 08:37 AM
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#49
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Permanently Disconnected
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 12,647
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Coulda ridden the motorcycle today. It cost me $6 to get to work instead of .40
big storm
go getcha bread.
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09-03-2010, 10:18 AM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 492
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Hi nightfighter....
Welcome to Burlington. I live right in town. if you need any suggestions on restaurants or anything just send me a pm.
Have a great time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nightfighter
Should I, or shouldn't I?..... Peace of mind would have me haul it out, since I'll be leaving Friday afternoon for a wedding in Burlington Vermont. But it will be all over by Saturday AM... Then again, I'm moored at the far end of the mooring field, the end that will be the collection area if any of the couple hundred boats north of me get loose. Trailer is ready... If I haul, it will be on the evening tide. Won't have to worry about others' boats getting loose if it is in the front yard.
But should be a good night to fish the surf tonight, and tomorrow.....
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09-03-2010, 10:28 AM
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#51
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Respect your elvers
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: franklin ma
Posts: 3,368
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Quote:
Originally Posted by numbskull
As I read it this am,
NE gusts to 65
storm surge @4 feet
Works for me.
Still time to run out and buy the wife a rake.
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While she's cleaning up, you can head over to the yamaha dealer...
Myself, I just ordered a table saw and now I'm heading to Downes and Reader...  |
It's not the bait
At the end of your line
It's the fishing hole
Where all the fish is blind
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09-03-2010, 11:26 AM
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#52
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M.S.B.A.
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: I live in the Villiage of Hyannis in the Town of Barnstable in the Commonwealth of MA
Posts: 2,795
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The first "band" of rain that is clearly waaaaaayyyyyy in advanc eof the actual storm camy through Hyannis about 11am. The hatches are battened and ready for tonight.
Oh yeah...the camper is packed and reayd becase the second they open Race Point I will be on my way. Right after a storm the fishing can be wicked good!!!!
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"It is impossible to complain and to achieve at the same time"--Basic Patrick (on a good day)
 
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