Hurricane Preparedness (a/k/a the annoy RockFishJoe & Clammer Thread)

[Saltheart]

NWS forcast for wind speed vs radius from eye as of 5 pm Sat

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 76.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 150SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 180SW 0NW.

Since Prov is about 150 miles from NYC as the crow flies, we should expect 45-50 knot sustained winds with higher gusts when Irene is at NYC. Could be even lower as the storm goes up the mid atlantic coast before hitting NYC. At 30 knots , it becomes a pretty common thing for us in RI.
Lets hope it loses some force quickly after going inland.

In fact , according to this data , Irene is no longer a hurricane. Its now a tropical storm. Lets hope it stays trending down in wind speed as it should without 80+ degree water to feed on.

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by Saltheart

NWS forcast for wind speed vs radius from eye as of 5 pm Sat

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 76.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 150SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 180SW 0NW.

Since Prov is about 150 miles from NYC as the crow flies, we should expect 45-50 knot sustained winds with higher gusts when Irene is at NYC. Could be even lower as the storm goes up the mid atlantic coast before hitting NYC. At 30 knots , it becomes a pretty common thing for us in RI.
Lets hope it loses some force quickly after going inland.

In fact , according to this data , Irene is no longer a hurricane. Its now a tropical storm. Lets hope it stays trending down in wind speed as it should without 80+ degree water to feed on.

Mike, 70 kts is still hurricane force winds. It's 74 mph or higher. 70 kts is closer to 80 mph than 70.

It's going to make landfall closer than NYC, I think, too. Remember it was over land for 10 solid hours and only lost 5 mph in max sustained winds---that's very unusual. And the water off Sandy Hook is very close to 80 degrees, at least at the surface.

[Thumper]

950mb and 80 degree water is nuts...

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by Thumper

950mb and 80 degree water is nuts...

Nothing about this one makes any sense.

Hurricanes with 950 mb central pressure don't have 80 mph winds. Hurricanes don't usually spend 10 hours over land and lose only 5 mph in max winds. They also don't drop 2 mb in pressure during the same period.

TF strength winds 250 mi from the center on the eastern side??

[spence]

Originally Posted by Mike P

Nothing about this one makes any sense.

Hurricanes with 950 mb central pressure don't have 80 mph winds. Hurricanes don't usually spend 10 hours over land and lose only 5 mph in max winds. They also don't drop 2 mb in pressure during the same period.

TF strength winds 250 mi from the center on the eastern side??

And why the weather geeks are calling this a big one while the rest argue if it's worthy because of the Saffir-Simpson rating.

Even if the winds aren't that terrible I think this has the potential to knock out a lot of power when it reaches NE. Curious what the storm surge may be in Mount Hope Bay tomorrow morning...might have to walk down for some pics if it's not too bad.

-spence

[Mike P]

Here's the 7 PM update. No changes. 7:30 this morning it made landfall with 85 mph max sustained winds, and minimum pressure of 952 mb. Almost 12 hours later, it's passing over Va Beach and out into the ocean, with 80 mph winds, and minimum central pressure of 950 mb. And the IR sat image shows a better formed storm than it was yesterday.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 75.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
* UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE
INCLUDING GRAND MANAN
* SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND AND
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.
A NOAA C-MAN STATION EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...WITH A GUST TO 68
MPH. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD
OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4.6 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON
INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET HAS
OCCURRED SO FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 14 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT
OF 14.00 INCHES REPORTED AT BUNYAN NORTH CAROLINA THUS FAR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

[striperman36]

Go anyway spence

Did you take down those silly lights?

[Thumper]

If it wasn't so big there would be no doubt in my mind this would be a high 2 or possibly a 3. Hopefully it wont explode when it gets off the coast.

[spence]

Originally Posted by striperman36

Did you take down those silly lights?

Funny, my wife thought they'd just bounce around...they're made of paper

I threw them away.

-spence

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by spence

Funny, my wife thought they'd just bounce around...they're made of paper

I threw them away.

-spence

Enjoy!!! I just got home to Mansfield. I need bread, milk, white eggs, batteries, dog food Uhoh....

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by Thumper

If it wasn't so big there would be no doubt in my mind this would be a high 2 or possibly a 3. Hopefully it wont explode when it gets off the coast.

It's sitting in 80 degree water right now.

[Saltheart]

Missed the Kts vs MPH . That's why all the charts don't agree with the report.

Still a lot better than the original scenario.

Doing nothing at my house right now. Local weather forecasters (RI) say 30 to 50 MPH sustained winds tomorrow with lower numbers inland and higher at the coast. Gusts to 70 expected near coast. They all seem to be telling the same story on Channel 6, 10 and 12.Lets hope they are right. They are talking about a big surg in Buzzards Bay right near Canal entrance to be the worst

Chart below shows water temps along NJ at 70. That should help. Local meteorologist says this is total insurance against it intensifying. Of course it is Mother Nature.

Satellite picture is deceptive. Radar shows strong bands much closer to eye than the cloud formation would indicate. Still big but not 500 miles across.

Why it didn't intensify north of NC in the warm water is anybodies guess. Just happy to see it didn't!

Well tomorrow is the day. I expect to lose power. Question is will it be a few hours, a day or several days. In CT I lost power for almost a week after Gloria and lost a whole freezer full of food including a just purchased whole spring lamb from a local farm. Barbecued all I could and brought stuff to all my friends but still lost 3/4 of the lamb. All the discarded food in the neighborhood brought animals from the big park (east Rock Park) across the street from me. I had to battle a rackoon one day who was obviously not afraid of me one bit. I decided he could have the trash!

Landfall in NewEngland still looks like just about NYC. Some talk as far east as Bridgeport. Still better than tues-wed's track showing ground zero as Narragansett Bay.

Good luck to all. One downed tree can make the difference between a none event and a big PITA. Lets hope most of us dodge the bullet.

[Saltheart]

Seems like a good link

Live Global Storm Tracker - The Associated Press

[Mike P]

Originally Posted by Saltheart

Why it didn't intensify north of NC in the warm water is anybodies guess. Just happy to see it didn't!

My guess is that it's tracking close to the coast, and the winds can''t wrap around the west side of the eye as freely as they would over open water. Not getting any stronger or weaker, but the east side grew, with hurricane winds extending 125 miles NE and SE of the center.

Blowing hard enough here to wake me up, obviously.

[mag minnow]

North Central MA....Rain, plenty of with little wind so far...

[Zeno]

i just woke up and found that Dunkin Donuts is open..getting there was a little hairy..trees look like they are touching the ground...

[basswipe]

Originally Posted by Zeno

i just woke up and found that Dunkin Donuts is open..getting there was a little hairy..trees look like they are touching the ground...

Leave it to D&Ds to be open!

[JohnR]

Power has been going up and down at several of my client sites as I get notifications when that happens. I have shut down preselected equipment at many sites already.

[spence]

Neighbor's tree just lost a pine cone, it's in the middle of our driveway.

-spence

[BMEUPSCOTTY]

Email from lees market... Closed for the day... That means a long drive for beer...:-(
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[spence]

Originally Posted by BMEUPSCOTTY

Email from lees market... Closed for the day... That means a long drive for beer...:-(
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

You were supposed to stock up yesterday. The little shop in Adamsville is only 5 minutes away and has a nice selection.

-spence

[doc]

Originally Posted by spence

Neighbor's tree just lost a pine cone, it's in the middle of our driveway.

-spence

I'm surprised that has not been covered by CNN...
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[Nebe]

Originally Posted by spence

Neighbor's tree just lost a pine cone, it's in the middle of our driveway.

-spence

Oh my GAWD! Don't touch it!! Call national grid and have them remove it before it causes any serious damage!
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[spence]

Originally Posted by Nebe

Oh my GAWD! Don't touch it!! Call national grid and have them remove it before it causes any serious damage!
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

It's gone now.

Not sure if the wind blew it onto my yard or a squirrel took it.

-spence

[rphud]

Doc, you and Ross find fish yesterday?

[Thumper]

Powers already been out in westerly for a couple of hours, hope my riggies don't thaw to fast...
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[spence]

It looks like the wind should be picking up in RI over the next few hours.


-spence

[doc]

Originally Posted by rphud

Doc, you and Ross find fish yesterday?

I did, great morning (boat) and excellent afternoon (surf)...don't think Ross had the same luck...
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device

[Saltheart]

Woke up about 8 AM. just heavy rain on roof. Still have power here. Expect strong band starting in about 2 hours according to radar. Probably biggest gusts. Looks like the worst of it but its a strong wide band so we will see. . Right now its a non event. Could change as the afternoon goes on and the long exposure to moderate wind starts to take its toll on weak trees , etc.

New York looks to be doing well. Not the flooding that was anticipated.

I'm hoping the trees hold up

[JFigliuolo]

alot of power out in CT 400K and rising.