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They should be able to weaken the Taliban to the point where if we pull out, they are unable to move to take over the entire country again. Weakened opposition will increase the likelihood of a stable central government able to support a military stronger than the Taliban. It's obvious there is an inverse relationship with respect to a stable Afghan state and the strength of the Taliban.
That said, I think time line is complete b.s. - but no president is going stand up and say it's going to be years and years. Overall, I'd say it's the best choice in a minefield of bad choices available.
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