Disaster

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by spence

Plenty of ex military being critical on MSNBC and CNN also, but as you said, they weren't doing the planning.

Maybe they should have been doing the planning. The people doing the planning, bungled the last few days (but did a good job getting so many out before). That's not just the opinion of the biased right. It's the opinion of everyone not among the biased left. You guys, as always, can't see it, because none of you can say anything critical about any democrat. NEVER.

[spence]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Maybe they should have been doing the planning. The people doing the planning, bungled the last few days (but did a good job getting so many out before). That's not just the opinion of the biased right. It's the opinion of everyone not among the biased left. You guys, as always, can't see it, because none of you can say anything critical about any democrat. NEVER.

I don't see the military planners as being that political. They were given a policy decision by Trump (i.e. surrender to terrorists rather than broker an enforceable peace deal) that was essentially non-reversible. Granted, Biden campaigned on getting out also, but the military planners were just crafting a mission to execute policy and they were working from some bad assumptions.

The Taliban were going to take over regardless, it just happened much faster than anticipated. Amazing how our troops responded to get so many out so fast without massive carnage, not to diminish those that died in the one bombing.

[Got Stripers]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Maybe they should have been doing the planning. The people doing the planning, bungled the last few days (but did a good job getting so many out before). That's not just the opinion of the biased right. It's the opinion of everyone not among the biased left. You guys, as always, can't see it, because none of you can say anything critical about any democrat. NEVER.

Really Obama just made this war worse, happy now?
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by spence

I don't see the military planners as being that political. They were given a policy decision by Trump (i.e. surrender to terrorists rather than broker an enforceable peace deal) that was essentially non-reversible. Granted, Biden campaigned on getting out also, but the military planners were just crafting a mission to execute policy and they were working from some bad assumptions.

The Taliban were going to take over regardless, it just happened much faster than anticipated. Amazing how our troops responded to get so many out so fast without massive carnage, not to diminish those that died in the one bombing.

trumps deal was conditions based, was it not? why was it non reversible? so many other trump policies were overturned.
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[spence]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

trumps deal was conditions based, was it not? why was it non reversible? so many other trump policies were overturned.
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Not really, it had some barely measurable concessions the Taliban weren't meeting under Trump even and by the time Biden took office most of the US troops had already left. I'm not sure how we could have put up an effective defense when the Afghan troops didn't want to fight and the Taliban had all the momentum.

[wdmso]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

trumps deal was conditions based, was it not? why was it non reversible? so many other trump policies were overturned.
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yes it was condition based and Trump released 5000 prisoners as a condition . without consulting the Afghan Government .. could have Biden reversed it of course he could of then This agreement was no executive order. then move the goal posts again to he said but didn't he promised to leave.


But I am still waiting on those who are complaining that 100 citizens are left in country .. both republican and Democratic! How many US service Members are they willing to lose to get them out ? because clearly 13 marines was to many to get 125k out ..

But even if no marines lost their lives the message would be the same...

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by spence

Not really, it had some barely measurable concessions the Taliban weren't meeting under Trump even and by the time Biden took office most of the US troops had already left. I'm not sure how we could have put up an effective defense when the Afghan troops didn't want to fight and the Taliban had all the momentum.

“barely measurable”.

one condition stated the taliban had to enter a peaceful, mutually agreed upon deal with the afghan government. that’s not “barely measurable”.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axi...51bd47ed6.html

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[spence]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

“barely measurable”.

one condition stated the taliban had to enter a peaceful, mutually agreed upon deal with the afghan government. that’s not “barely measurable”.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axi...51bd47ed6.html

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Why didn't Trump enforce that before drawing down troops?

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by spence

Why didn't Trump enforce that before drawing down troops?

here's what honesty looks like Spence (honesty that you are incapable of)...

that's a good question (that's a statement you are incapable of making to a conservative). From what I saw, the agreement was supposed to be in place by the time we withdrew completely. Trump wasn't president when we withdrew completely.

Hindsight is always 20/20, and it's not fair to expect anyone to be clairvoyant. BUT here is what common sense tells me, they should have done.

You hold onto Bagram. It was built with defendability in mind, and they had many years to fortify it and figure out how to make it safe.

While (1) things are still stable, and (2) you are evacuating huge numbers of people, you use Kabul, as long as it's safe. But you hold onto Bagram, in case you need it. You plan for contingencies (at least, those of us not suffering from dementia plan for contingencies).
Got Stripers said many times here, that it was inevitable that things would descend into a "fall of Saigon" chaos, so if that was forseable, it follows that the Kabul airport would be impossible to function. By the time things go south, you don't have nearly as many people left to get out, and for sure you can get some of them out via Bagram.

The videos of the last days at the airport...you could look at the entirety of global military history, and not be able to find a more dangerous position to put 20 year-old E1s and E2s in. There is literally zero security, and I mean n-o-n-e. You have absolutely no idea of who is standing next to you.

i think the administration did a heck of a job getting so many out in the last month, they absolutely deserve credit for that. They also could not have done worse, preparing for, and managing, the last few days. I don't know how he could have done worse, unless Biden accidentally sat on the nuclear button and nuked the whole country.

As Got Stripers said, anyone could have seen the chaos at the end. We could not have been less prepared. The plan was "go out there and deal with the mob as best you can, and pray that no jihadists are walking among the mob". That was the best plan they could come up with.

As the liberal progressive democrat congressman Seth Moulton from Massachusetts said, it was preventable. It probably wasn't all preventable, but it could have been planned much, much better.

And for Biden to explicitly promise we'd stay until everyone was out and then to so completely walk away from that promise...at a minimum, he has earned the loss of serious trust. That's what happens when you make a promise and then you choose to break it. That emboldens our enemies, and will obviously make anyone think twice about sticking their necks out to help us.

In 2008, there was a senate delegation on a helicopter in Afghanistan, they had to set down in unsafe area during heavy snow. A Blackwater team, along with an Afghan interpreter, walked to them and led them to safety. Senator Joe Biden was on that helicopter. The interpreter who risked his life to rescue Biden, is still there, begging to have he and his family brought out.

Some loyalty.

[Pete F.]

Sounds simple
Hindsight is 20/20
No matter what scenario occurred at some point there would have been a mob looking to get out and as long as you were letting some in the dangerous interface is there.
That’s why suicide bombers are so dangerous and hard to prevent.
As far as Bagram goes it’s a two hour drive from Kabul which is the population center
You have now increased the perimeter you have to defend by 70 miles or more
In addition the Taliban and ISIS-K are attacking
Pretty much means you have 10K Americans back in, spread out and in harms way.
It’s over, we’re out, just like the end of anything it’s not pretty.
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[Got Stripers]

If we were so ill prepared how did so many get evacuated? Biden and the military did good in light of how the Afghans just rolled over and while I said any end of war pull out is likely to be chaotic, it’s always going to be fluid and nobody expected what happened. Hey thanking loyalty, what about Trump leaving our Kurd allies behind and turning over our facilities to the Russians, you dodged that point before. Fake outrage is partisan.

On a side note on loyalty, seems Kevin is picking up right where Trump left off, threatening companies if they comply with supenas; loyal to the new leader of the far right.

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by Got Stripers

If we were so ill prepared how did so many get evacuated? Biden and the military did good in light of how the Afghans just rolled over and while I said any end of war pull out is likely to be chaotic, it’s always going to be fluid and nobody expected what happened. Hey thanking loyalty, what about Trump leaving our Kurd allies behind and turning over our facilities to the Russians, you dodged that point before. Fake outrage is partisan.

On a side note on loyalty, seems Kevin is picking up right where Trump left off, threatening companies if they comply with supenas; loyal to the new leader of the far right.

Again, work on your comprehension. They got many out before it all went south.

Are you denying that we were caught off guard at the very end? Even Biden is saying they had no expectation that the Taliban would seize control that quickly.

If we were fully prepared, why did we pull out before we got everyone out, therefore breaking Biden's promise?

Man, oh, man, you guys are something. Everything was perfect.

[Jim in CT]

Pete -

you're right, Bagram was too far away.

Better to use just one focal point, a major population center, and create a tightly packed mob all in one place. That makes it impossible for, say, one idiot with a suicide backpack to murder 150 people who are all within 25 feet of him. Which is why no one was hurt at the Kabul airport, all the suicide bombers were walking the roads between Kabul and Bagram.

If the threat was a large scale attack from the Taliban, you'd have a point. That wasn't the threat. The threat was lone jihadists. You do the lone jihadist a favor by telling the world that everyone is going to be in one place, especially when that one place is impossible to secure.

[Jim in CT]

By the way, to all the Biden apologists who claim there was no way to kno wwhat was going to happen...

Reuters just released the transcript of a call President Biden had on July 23 with Afghani president Ghani (the guy we hand-picked, who fled the country without telling anyone he was leaving)...in that call Biden said "the perception...is that things are not going well in terms of the fight against the Taliban, and there is a need... to project a different picture"

Now, that necessarily means that President Biden had knowledge 5 weeks ago, that things were deteriorating. And still, we had no contingency plan, our only hope was an orderly mass exodus from a civilian airport, we had no backup plan in the event that went south.

5 weeks...we had 5 weeks notice.

And AFTER that call, Biden repeatedly told the nation that everything was OK, that there was no reason to believe our withdrawal wouldn't go as planned.

Now, if I claimed that Biden misled us, how would i be wrong, exactly?


That call happened. Read the transcript.

IT'S ALL TRUMPS FAULT!!

[scottw]

just imagine...it's not hard...because we've been treated to plenty...what the spin and rhetoric would be if trump was still in office and what the media narrative would be and you'll realize how ridiculous these guys are ....

just be grateful biden got operation warp speed going so he could get everyone vaccinated with the vaccine he once seriously questioned which no one should now ever question...it's like that

[wdmso]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

By the way, to all the Biden apologists who claim there was no way to kno wwhat was going to happen...

Reuters just released the transcript of a call President Biden had on July 23 with Afghani president Ghani (the guy we hand-picked, who fled the country without telling anyone he was leaving)...in that call Biden said "the perception...is that things are not going well in terms of the fight against the Taliban, and there is a need... to project a different picture"

Now, that necessarily means that President Biden had knowledge 5 weeks ago, that things were deteriorating. And still, we had no contingency plan, our only hope was an orderly mass exodus from a civilian airport, we had no backup plan in the event that went south.

5 weeks...we had 5 weeks notice.

And AFTER that call, Biden repeatedly told the nation that everything was OK, that there was no reason to believe our withdrawal wouldn't go as planned.

Now, if I claimed that Biden misled us, how would i be wrong, exactly?


That call happened. Read the transcript.

IT'S ALL TRUMPS FAULT!!

In all your post and most talking heads love to leave out the elephant in the room

The Afghan Army 20yr trained and equipped 300 thousand of them just said F it .

And now Americans are seeing all that equipment on Parade many thinking we left it behind

So let’s talk about honesty

If you want to be honest , start the conversation there. Because that’s when the withdrawal turned into an evacuation.

And instead of having 1 location surrounded by the Taliban you would have had multiple areas surrounded by the Taliban..

And the need to re supply and evac with already limited resources in aircraft and more boots on the ground equal greater risks ..

But iam still waiting for an answer to my questions how much additional blood aka troops are those complaining about the 100 or so Americans left in Afghanistan willing to loose to get them out.


And it’s funny Republicans suddenly are just calling them Americans

But if they saw them on the street they Would be labeled something else Terrorist !
Funny how that works
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[wdmso]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Pete -

you're right, Bagram was too far away.

Better to use just one focal point, a major population center, and create a tightly packed mob all in one place. That makes it impossible for, say, one idiot with a suicide backpack to murder 150 people who are all within 25 feet of him. Which is why no one was hurt at the Kabul airport, all the suicide bombers were walking the roads between Kabul and Bagram.

If the threat was a large scale attack from the Taliban, you'd have a point. That wasn't the threat. The threat was lone jihadists. You do the lone jihadist a favor by telling the world that everyone is going to be in one place, especially when that one place is impossible to secure.

Love your logic Jim spread it out no suicide bombers lol

I guess you for got about a little thing called an a IED they get placed on roads dirt paths you name it ..
Did you know
IEDs and Suicide bombers are the #1 killer of Americans.

Yet 120 thousand plus people got out and tragically 13 service members died Like I’ve said conservatives love war just not the dying part

But I get it .. imaginary outcomes are always preferred by conservatives .. ask the pillow guy
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by wdmso

Love your logic Jim spread it out no suicide bombers lol

I guess you for got about a little thing called an a IED they get placed on roads dirt paths you name it ..
Did you know
IEDs and Suicide bombers are the #1 killer of Americans.

Yet 120 thousand plus people got out and tragically 13 service members died Like I’ve said conservatives love war just not the dying part

But I get it .. imaginary outcomes are always preferred by conservatives .. ask the pillow guy
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if you were a line suicide bomber, a guy with a backpack, kindly tell me which scenario you’d prefer…

a municipal airport that’s the only airport being used, with no security, no checkpoints, massive mobs of desperate people in a tight space.

or a us military airfield where the entrances and approaches are heavily guarded? and everyone approaching us in an armored vehicle?

no preference?

Bagram has been open for many years, with american vehicles coming and going, so it would seem they have some defenses in place against IEDs.
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[Got Stripers]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Again, work on your comprehension. They got many out before it all went south.

Are you denying that we were caught off guard at the very end? Even Biden is saying they had no expectation that the Taliban would seize control that quickly.

If we were fully prepared, why did we pull out before we got everyone out, therefore breaking Biden's promise?

Man, oh, man, you guys are something. Everything was perfect.

You must have been good at dodge ball in gym, your fake outage is your response to my asking why Trump gets a pass on the Kurd allies being abandoned.
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by wdmso

In all your post and most talking heads love to leave out the elephant in the room

The Afghan Army 20yr trained and equipped 300 thousand of them just said F it .

And now Americans are seeing all that equipment on Parade many thinking we left it behind

So let’s talk about honesty

If you want to be honest , start the conversation there. Because that’s when the withdrawal turned into an evacuation.

And instead of having 1 location surrounded by the Taliban you would have had multiple areas surrounded by the Taliban..

And the need to re supply and evac with already limited resources in aircraft and more boots on the ground equal greater risks ..

But iam still waiting for an answer to my questions how much additional blood aka troops are those complaining about the 100 or so Americans left in Afghanistan willing to loose to get them out.


And it’s funny Republicans suddenly are just calling them Americans

But if they saw them on the street they Would be labeled something else Terrorist !
Funny how that works
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yes the afghan army said f it. but my point, which you ignored, is that biden knew this was happening back in july, but told the country everything was proceeding in a way that would allow the final withdrawal to take place as planned.

you either intentionally ignored that, or you can’t grasp it. there isn’t a third possibility.

i never denied the afghan army blew this.
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[scottw]

Originally Posted by wdmso

And it’s funny Republicans suddenly are just calling them Americans

But if they saw them on the street they Would be labeled something else Terrorist !

Funny how that works

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this is idiotic

[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by scottw

this is idiotic

just about everything they’ve said on this thread is idiotic.

you have to be a dedicated kool aid drinker to be unable to concede that we made a mess at the end of this.

armed with nothing else, ed so called us racists. that’s relevant here.

he didn’t care that biden ( on camera) referred to a black congressman as “boy” this week, that’s not any kind of racist red flag for him.
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[Pete F.]

Biden could have known?

Here is what Ajmal Ahmady, DAB Governor || Economic Advisor to the President of Afghanistan || TAPI Board Member || Former Minister of Industry & Commerce || Harvard MBA and MPA/ID http://www.afghaneconomics.com/ourteam.html
had to say on August 16th:

The collapse of the Government in Afghanistan this past week was so swift and complete - it was disorienting and difficult to comprehend.

This is how the events seemed to proceed from my perspective as Central Bank Governor.
Although much of the rural areas fell to the Taliban over the past few months, the first provincial capital to fall was just 1 week and two days ago!

On Friday August 6th, Ziranj fell. Over the next 6 days, a number of other provinces fell - particularly in the north.
There were multiple rumors that directions to not fight were somehow coming from above.

This has been repeated by Atta Noor and Ismael Khan.

Seems difficult to believe, but there remains a suspicion as to why ANSF left posts so quickly. There is something left unexplained

Currency volatility and other indicators had worsened, but DAB were able to stabilize the macroeconomic environment relatively well during the last week - given the deteriorating security environment.

Then came last Thursday
I attended my normal meetings. Ghazni fell in the morning.

I left work, and by the time I went home - Herat, Kandahar, and Baghdis also fell. Helmand was also under serious attack

Friday - we received a call that given the deteriorating environment, we wouldn’t get any more dollar shipments.

People spread rumors that I had fled on Friday.

On Saturday, DAB had to supply less currency to the markets on Saturday, which further increased panic.

Currency spiked from a stable 81 to almost 100 then back to 86. I held meetings on Saturday to reassure banks and money exchangers to calm them down. I can’t believe that was one day before Kabul fell

On Saturday night, my family called to say that most government had already left. I was dumbfounded.

A security assessment accurately forecast Taliban arrival to Kabul within 36 hours and its fall within 56 hours

I got worried & purchased tickets for Monday as a precaution

On Sunday I began work. Reports throughout morning were increasingly worrisome. I left the bank and left deputies in charge. Felt terrible about leaving staff.

But arrived at airport & saw that Mohaqeq, Rahmani, Massoud, etc were already there! Head of parliament seems content

Saw VP Danish leaving - reportedly for Qatar. By then it was rumored that VP Saleh had left.

Ministers + others were waiting for a Fly Dubai & Emirates flights. Both were cancelled

I secured a Kam Air flight Sunday 7pm. Then the floor fell: the President had already left

I knew right then my flight would be cancelled and there would be chaos.

As expected employees & military left posts. Everyone ran through gates to on Kam Air flight. 300+ passengers boarded for a 100-seat plane.

The plane had no fuel or pilot. We all hoped it would depart

However, I decided to disembark and spotted another military plane. It was surrounded by people trying to board, while the guard forces held people back and boarded their embassy staff.

There was a rush. Some shots were fired. Somehow, my close colleagues pushed me on board.

It did not have to end this way. I am disgusted by the lack of any planning by Afghan leadership. Saw at airport them leave without informing others.

I asked the palace if there was an evacuation plan/charter flights. After 7 years of service, I was met with silence

During last days, I feared not only risks related to Taliban, but fear of transition period once there is no chain of command.

Once president’s departure was announced, I knew within minutes chaos would follow. I cannot forgive him for creating that without a transition plan

I did not criticize them until now, but key figures Fazly & Mohib were too inexperienced in their roles, & was President’s failure that he never recognized such weaknesses.

He himself had great ideas but poor execution. If I contributed to that, I take my share of the blame.

And it seems it’s only gotten worse today at HKIA.

And this. I will be trying to support any requests for assistance, but worry that given my personal experience at airport that any support for friends and colleagues be limited

Did I have a reason to worry? This is the text someone sent me:

“Taliban come to <area> and were looking for you. They were asking about Ajmal Ahmady DAB Governor.”

Whatever their personal views, I also had many personal enemies. Or maybe they just wanted to greet me

[wdmso]

Originally Posted by scottw

this is idiotic

that funny coming from the guy who doesnt pay attention to what the right is saying

[wdmso]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

if you were a line suicide bomber, a guy with a backpack, kindly tell me which scenario you’d prefer…

a municipal airport that’s the only airport being used, with no security, no checkpoints, massive mobs of desperate people in a tight space.

or a us military airfield where the entrances and approaches are heavily guarded? and everyone approaching us in an armored vehicle?

no preference?

Bagram has been open for many years, with american vehicles coming and going, so it would seem they have some defenses in place against IEDs.
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again Jim your logic is rather simple .. if you dont think their would be a crush of people at any location ...

you have no idea about IEDs that much is certain just from you think driving in Afghanistan is like driving in America LOL PS still waiting on that answer How many are acceptable

[wdmso]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

yes the afghan army said f it. but my point, which you ignored, is that biden knew this was happening back in july, but told the country everything was proceeding in a way that would allow the final withdrawal to take place as planned.

you either intentionally ignored that, or you can’t grasp it. there isn’t a third possibility.

i never denied the afghan army blew this.
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Biden knew really that the afghans wouldn't fight 1 day is that your suggestion? ? did all the other Governments and Aid groups did they also Know their on the ground ? that the afghan army wasn't going to last a Day ?

So why didn't everyone evacuate early ? seems they thought as we did the Afghans would at least put up a fight.. and they also needed to fly back in and get people out..

but lets get back to the Air lift how many people should have gotten out? seeing your racist party is all ready spewing crap about Afghans

Republican politicians and Fox News personalities are stoking fears about the U.S. taking in Afghans trying to flee the Taliban.
Rep. Matt Rosendale saying that there is no “excuse to flood our country with refugees from Afghanistan.

“Is the mass migration of Afghan men to America really a good idea? Good for your wife, your daughter?” said the Trump campaign adviser turned host.


Stephen Miller
@StephenM
·
Aug 15
It is becoming increasingly clear that Biden & his radical deputies will use their catastrophic debacle in Afghanistan as a pretext for doing to America what Angela Merkel did to Germany & Europe.


Jim someone needs to pay attention to the big picture. if I recall you had the same issue with Trump

[The Dad Fisherman]

Originally Posted by scottw

just imagine...it's not hard...because we've been treated to plenty...what the spin and rhetoric would be if trump was still in office and what the media narrative would be and you'll realize how ridiculous these guys are ....

No chit

It would be a steady stream of "unfit for office" this, and "25th Amendment" that. IMPEACH, IMPEACH, IMPEACH!!!

He took out one Evil Iranian General and we had 3 non-stop weeks of "World War 3"
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by wdmso

Biden knew really that the afghans wouldn't fight 1 day is that your suggestion? ? did all the other Governments and Aid groups did they also Know their on the ground ? that the afghan army wasn't going to last a Day ?

So why didn't everyone evacuate early ? seems they thought as we did the Afghans would at least put up a fight.. and they also needed to fly back in and get people out..

but lets get back to the Air lift how many people should have gotten out? seeing your racist party is all ready spewing crap about Afghans

Republican politicians and Fox News personalities are stoking fears about the U.S. taking in Afghans trying to flee the Taliban.
Rep. Matt Rosendale saying that there is no “excuse to flood our country with refugees from Afghanistan.

“Is the mass migration of Afghan men to America really a good idea? Good for your wife, your daughter?” said the Trump campaign adviser turned host.


Stephen Miller
@StephenM
·
Aug 15
It is becoming increasingly clear that Biden & his radical deputies will use their catastrophic debacle in Afghanistan as a pretext for doing to America what Angela Merkel did to Germany & Europe.


Jim someone needs to pay attention to the big picture. if I recall you had the same issue with Trump

my suggestion is that, according to the transcript of the call, Biden knew in July that things weren’t going well. yet he told america that all
was swell, and obviously he had no plan to deal with things deteriorating.

And got stripers said multiple
times, that any idiot could have foreseen that it would have turned into a mess. so if any idiot should have foreseen it, maybe biden could have thought about that scenario.

you’re saying there was no way to predict the mess. got stripers said any idiot should have seen it coming. if GS is right, Biden failed to plan for what he should have seen coming.

Again, i’m not speculating, i’m going by the transcript. i’m sorry if the physical evidence supports that biden knew 5 weeks ago that it wasn’t good, i’m sorry if that upsets you. But whether you happen to like it or not, Biden said in july it wasn’t going well.

Your moronic speculation that republicans don’t actually care about people
left behind, tells us how indefensible you know your position is.

Who are the private groups trying to get those people out right now? Lots of evangelical christians like glen beck, who i think is kooky, but he’s over there trying to get people
out. I doubt george soros is doing the same. so who really cares, and who doesn’t?
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[Pete F.]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Pete -

you're right, Bagram was too far away.

Better to use just one focal point, a major population center, and create a tightly packed mob all in one place. That makes it impossible for, say, one idiot with a suicide backpack to murder 150 people who are all within 25 feet of him. Which is why no one was hurt at the Kabul airport, all the suicide bombers were walking the roads between Kabul and Bagram.

If the threat was a large scale attack from the Taliban, you'd have a point. That wasn't the threat. The threat was lone jihadists. You do the lone jihadist a favor by telling the world that everyone is going to be in one place, especially when that one place is impossible to secure.

Mark Hertling, retired General, Hertling served in Armor, Cavalry, planning, operations and training positions, and commanded every organization from Platoon to Field Army. He commanded the 1st Armored Division and Task Force Iron/Multinational Division-North in Iraq during the troop surge of 2007 to 2008.

A terrific thread by Elizabeth Shackleford, former consular officer in South Sudan, the embassy view of the exact same story I’ve been telling from the military perspective. For any commenting this was “botched,” or should have started earlier, or could have been better planned…try it sometime. Hardest mission ever.

As U.S. Embassy's sole consular officer in #SouthSudan 2013-2014, I've been at the airport running #evacuations out of a country at war. Risk & scale differed from #Afghanistan, but some challenges on the ground were similar. A thread to share things I learned on the ground.
There is no graceful way to evac vulnerable people from a country at war. There are better ways & worse ways, but none look good from the outside (or inside). Things could have gone much better, but they also could have gone worse, and many challenges were inevitable.
The hardest part of evac'ing from a warzone is reaching the exit – airport in this case. USG didn’t control Kabul so it had few options to help and all put our people at risk. In South Sudan, we had some success moving a few people to the airport from inside Juba.
but opportunities were ltd. Even harder beyond the capital. We aborted an attempted evac from another town when our aircraft came under fire with serious injuries to US service members. Deciding when and how much to put our people at risk is hard.
Next, someone must decide who gets in. These are life and death decisions, made 100s-1000s of times a day. Mil and civ officers do so with vague guidelines from Washington. Who counts as a family member? How do you prove they are?
How do you prioritize among hundreds when no one’s documents are complete? Many don’t grab their passport and other docs when fleeing for their lives on short notice.
Answers are subjective. Doing it at volume is hard, making decisions among 1000s or more. USG could have taken steps earlier to reduce some numbers (see below), but none of that applied once evac began. It was always going to be a crush. Why?
Americans and our allies aren't the only ones trying to leave, and our departures aren't other people's priorities.
Most at the gates probably weren’t USG priorities (Americans, Afghan allies) but USG had no way to control/limit crowding without law enforcement authority. Expanding the perimeter would have just pushed the same problem out further.
If more Americans and allies had left sooner, we would have had fewer to evac. USG had control over one but not the other.
Not much USG could do to get more Americans out sooner b/c many chose not to go. USG has warned Americans for yrs not to travel to Afghanistan and specifically urged Americans to leave since 2020 deal was signed. Thousands stayed b/c they’re usually there for a reason.
For family, business, humanitarian or other conflict-related work. Some work in security. Most want to be on last safe flight out possible. All had good reasons, but you don't know when the last one will be, it won’t likely be safe, and only has so many seats.
I saw it in South Sudan, urging people to leave as soon as they had a chance, but many opted to delay, hoping things wouldn't get worse. But they did.
Where we could and should have done better is Afghan allies. But this required fixing a broken special immigrant visa (SIV) program years ago–not just starting evacs a few weeks earlier. #Trump admin intentionally clogged the system.
But it was already a 14-step process with unnecessary, difficult bureaucratic steps, particularly hard to complete from Afghanistan. Had Congress, Defense, and State fixed it years ago, 10,000s of our #AfghanAllies would be in the US already.
As many criticize the evac process, surely plagued by inefficiencies and interagency contradictions, remember the mil and civ on the ground charged with 1000s of these life and death decisions, in dangerous circumstances, doing the best they could with limited information.
They deserve immense gratitude but will live with the weight of these choices forever, and what their decisions meant for the ones they didn’t choose. I wish them peace of mind, to be proud of the work they did, know they did their best, and that their service saved lives.

I'll find Hertling's also

[Pete F.]

Originally Posted by Pete F.

Over 70,000 Afghan civilians, 40,000 Afghan soldiers, and 2,743 Americans have died in this conflict.

General Mark Hertling's assessment of what's happening and the difficulties in Afghanistan

A suicide attack - SVIED or VBIED - is a commander’s biggest threat in these environments. They’re hard to stop, even at checkpoints…because they are already there and can be initiated when found.
The only way to address them is 1) find the cell that is making them 2) constantly change methods at checkpoints 3) have greater standoff 4) limit crowds. All of these were difficult at HKIA.
We had a network of female suicide vest wearers in Iraq that were particularly confounding. Widows of terrorists, group leaders drugged them, convinced them they had nothing to live for, and sent them on their mission.
They also had the advantage of wearing abayas and not being checked by security, due to cultural issues of not checking women.
We only found the cell and countered it when we got women on the police force who would work checkpoints. But that took time.
Yesterday’s bombing was horrific. Given the crowds, the crush at the singular gates, the dynamics of inner & outer checkpoints at HKIA, and the desires of ISK to counter Taliban & US actions, this threat was always on my mind, and I’m sure the minds of the NEO commanders.
Contributing to all this: the time constraints of the mission and the incredible complexity of conducting a difficult NEO in a non-permissive environment.
The NEO will continue in this 3d phase, as I pointed out a few days ago, with ever decreasing outflow of evacuees. We’ll soon seen the transition to phase 4, which is the final phase (likely start on Sunday). That will also present huge challenges.
Even with the horrific actions of yesterday, I continue to give high marks to the conduct of this difficult mission, though not all will be evacuated.
And God/Allah bless the souls of those service-members and Afghans who lost their lives or were injured in the despicable & deadly attack.

I did days ago