I'd trust Rav's indian friend before the weatherman.
A 100 inchs of snow sounds like alot, but not uncommon around the Great Lakes. One year in the late 90's Pulaski had 96 inches dropped in a 24 hour period which broke a record somewhere in Colorado back in 1939. Watertown is infamous for their big storms due to lake effect.
The difference is they are always prepared up there.
The Weather Channel isn't calling it yet as of the early AM -
But they are saying now that's it's tracking further east than they thought - which means snow.
Looks like they're gonna have to dig a bit to get a look at the groundhog...
"There is no royal road to this heavy surf-fishing. With all the appliances for comfort experience can suggest, there is a certain amount of hard work to be done and exposure to be bourne as a part of the price of success." From "Striped Bass," Scribner's Magazine, 1881.
I just went on Ebay and ordered a Holstein Cow. The milk ain't free so I figured with the "Big Storm" and all! Heck, it can mow my lawn if this turns out to be a poor prognostication!
Finally! A place to talk about the Blizzard of 78!
52" of snow in downtown Providence. Stuck there from the Monday morning of the storm until Thursday morning.
Marriott Hotel. Food ran out on Monday night. Had one blueberry pancake on Tuesday, after taking some supplies of a trailer truck. On Thursday, we walked to Attleboro on the Rte 95 on divider in platform shoes (it was the seventies after all...). We fell down a lot...
Got back to CT on Sunday. The car we drove in was found in April and impounded. It was stuck in a pile of snow at a gas station on a corner - we had to abandon it (fiat spyder convertible...). Our boss had to drive through Massachusetts to get us back to CT. Ok... done.
Thanks for listening.
From Accuweather.. one of the few with the cajones to post long range predictions...
Bryan
Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&
"For once I agree with Spence. UGH. I just hope I don't get the urge to go start buying armani suits to wear in my shop"
Wife has surgery in hartford tuesday, not a good travel for there.
NWS is saying models have the storm tracking east of the CWA and we would only have a light covering in front and perhaps a wrap around comma after, this looks like the comma could be pretty cold, 1" or less of moisture 10-15 X factor for snow.
Weatherunderground is dead on it too.
he old stalled cold frontal boundary provides a ribbon of strengthening baroclincy allowing for the surface low to intensify as it reaches our latitude. Intense deformation band of snow in the cold conveyor flow develops on the backside of the low on Tuesday and Tuesday night bringing significant amounts of snow across the Northeast within 100-150 miles of the coast down to the northern Mid-Atlantic and extending north into much of New England. As the mid-level low pressure features aloft approaches the coast secondary development occurs later Tuesday night as the primary shears out keeping snow over the region until Wednesday morning. This solution has the potential to drop a foot or more of snow across a wide region of the Northeast. QPF’s range from three-quarters of an inch to an inch and a half in both the NAM/GFS. This snow would also be rather fluffy as cold air gradually incorporates itself into the circulation of the storm system from the north. Snow ratios should range from 12-16:1 or higher near the end of the storm as max omega intersects a moist snow growth region in the deformation axis. The SREF plumes also have decent support for this scenario as the SREF mean precip over the Northeast ranges from a half inch to an inch in the above mentioned areas with many plume diagrams showing an inch or more of QPF.
So not a lot of moisture - QPF but a lot of snow - 12-16:1
The National Weather Service admits they don't have a clue about the storm at this point. Sorry about the caps, that's how they post these discussions:
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AND FLIP FLOP ON A POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEY ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
FIGURING OUT HOW MUCH TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITH NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY. THEY ALSO ARE NOT SURE ON WHICH PIECE OF ENERGY THEY
WANT TO CAPTURE AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK.
THERE IS NO POINT IN GOING INTO SPECIFIC DETAILS OF EACH
MODEL...SINCE MOST HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CONSISTENCY AND HAVE BEEN
VERY UNSTABLE FROM RUN TO RUN. THE ONLY THING WE CAN SAY IS THAT
SINCE THE MODELS GOT AWAY FROM THE INLAND BOMB SCENARIO...THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND STABLE WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION AND A FURTHER EAST TRACK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAR SUPERIOR
IN MOST OF THESE SITUATIONS THE LAST FEW YEARS...SO UNTIL WE SEE IT
GO FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL DID TREND A BIT
FURTHER WEST FROM ITS LAST FEW RUNS...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED.
ALL IN ALL...THE AMERICAN MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE CLOSER TO
THE COAST/STRONGER AND HAVE A MUCH BIGGER IMPACT THAN THE INTERNATIONAL
MODELS. LIKE WE SAID BEFORE...WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION BASED ON ITS TRACK RECORD...BUT ALSO WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
SOME OF THE AMERICAN MODELS INTO OUR FORECAST. REGARDLESS...ALL THE
MODELS DO HAVE A CLASSIC INVERTED TROUGH SETUP...SO WE FEEL THAT WE
WILL GET AT LEAST SOME SNOW PULLED BACK INTO THE REGION.
THEREFORE...RIGHT NOW WE FEEL THE BEST FORECAST IS FOR A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SOMETIME LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE THOUGH AND
SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SO UNSTABLE THE LAST FEW DAYS...WE DO NOT
WANT TO RULE ANYTHING OUT. THIS INCLUDES THE MORE INTENSE AMERICAN
MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF
THE REGION.
ONE OF THE INTERESTING THINGS ABOUT THIS FORECAST IS THE AMERICAN
MODELS ARE CLUSTERED ON ONE SIDE WITH THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS ON
THE OPPOSITE SIDE. THE AMERICAN MODELS HAVE BETTER RESOLUTION...BUT
THAT DOES NOT MEAN THEY ARE CORRECT. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT AND HOPE THEY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIGHT NOW WE WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF...BUT
KEEP ALL OPTIONS OPEN.
WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY POPS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL PROBABLY HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST. IF THE
MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...LATER SHIFTS WILL WANT TO
UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL POPS. EVEN THOUGH WE THINK WE WILL AT LEAST
GET SOME PRECIPITATION...THE MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING WITH TIMING
SO WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE LIKELY RANGE.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...THINK IT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW OVER MOST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES AT TIMES RESULTING IN SOME
LIQUID PRECIPITATION. IF THE DEEPER FURTHER WEST SOLUTIONS
VERIFY...BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES COULD PUSH EVEN FURTHER NORTHWEST.
THIS FURTHER COMPLICATES AN ALREADY EXTREMELY CHALLENGING FORECAST!
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS SOME VERY COLD AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
DEPENDING ON JUST HOW INTENSE THE STORM BECOMES WILL DETERMINE JUST
HOW COLD IT GETS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
Here's the weatherman's dilemma
No consensus in the models across the board -
US (GFS/NAM) shows the Mega-Storm
European (UKMET) shows it going way east
Canadian models(GGEM, ECMWF) are in the middle
This winter the GFS has been pretty accurate, but with the variance, even in models from run to run has almost everyone just shrugging
In the middle of the very snowy American models and the out-to-sea UKMET lies the Canadian GGEM and the ECMWF. These models have trended west over their last couple of runs but not as extreme as the GFS/NAM or SREF’s. They take low pressure about 100-150 miles further offshore than the American models with some light to moderate QPF, generally under a half inch, in the deformation banding on the backside of the storm. This would still give areas within 50-75 miles of the coast a 2-6” snowfall, roughly a half to a third of the output of the GFS/NAM.
Me too, I don't think she know anything about meteorolgy.
We need a nipplemeter here.
I was hoping she would drop the clicker...
"Here's the weatherman's dilemma
No consensus in the models across the board -
US (GFS/NAM) shows the Mega-Storm
European (UKMET) shows it going way east
Canadian models(GGEM, ECMWF) are in the middle"
And either way we'll be pissed at them... tough gig!
Bryan
Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&
"For once I agree with Spence. UGH. I just hope I don't get the urge to go start buying armani suits to wear in my shop"
I think I've watched this video about 45 times already
-spence
I watched it 4 times before I even realized she wasn't speaking English.
Conservatism is not about leaving people behind. Conservatism is about empowering people to catch up, to give them tools at their disposal that make it possible for them to access all the hope, all the promise, all the opportunity that America offers. - Marco Rubio
"Here's the weatherman's dilemma
No consensus in the models across the board -
US (GFS/NAM) shows the Mega-Storm
European (UKMET) shows it going way east
Canadian models(GGEM, ECMWF) are in the middle"
Only a pink panty wearing Liberal would consider an European or Canadian weather projection ahead of an American one.
I'm betting on the red blooded mega-storm, and I'll be using my Union made shovel to clean it up.
I don't know - there's just something provocative about the way she gestures toward the map...
May the Cap could provide us with a permanent link in the Weather area...
She's even hotter than Dylan Dryer...now all Channel 10 has is that fat broad on in the AM...
Ya know, life is too short to have to watch ugly women on TV that early in the morning...just sours my outlook on the rest of the day..
"There is no royal road to this heavy surf-fishing. With all the appliances for comfort experience can suggest, there is a certain amount of hard work to be done and exposure to be bourne as a part of the price of success." From "Striped Bass," Scribner's Magazine, 1881.
Hey, Rav - what's your Native American friend calling for?...
"There is no royal road to this heavy surf-fishing. With all the appliances for comfort experience can suggest, there is a certain amount of hard work to be done and exposure to be bourne as a part of the price of success." From "Striped Bass," Scribner's Magazine, 1881.
ayep.... spoken like a Man from Maine
So Bigfish what time we headed to the ditch Tuesday. I have some ice fishing traps ready!!!!
hottest
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