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Old 03-14-2014, 09:22 AM   #61
Piscator
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Originally Posted by spence View Post
Sure, there are a lot of components and Federal spending is a big one.

I think the CBO predicted that the Sequester -- which was a drop in the bucket some claimed -- would depress GDP 1.5% in 2013. Given that the difference between recession and strong growth is in the single digits that's a significant impact.

-spence
If we rely so much on federal spending for GDP and if it is such a BIG component as you say...then we have a big problem.
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Old 03-14-2014, 10:02 AM   #62
detbuch
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Originally Posted by spence View Post
Sure, there are a lot of components and Federal spending is a big one.

I think the CBO predicted that the Sequester -- which was a drop in the bucket some claimed -- would depress GDP 1.5% in 2013. Given that the difference between recession and strong growth is in the single digits that's a significant impact.

-spence
It's obvious, without debating abstruse theories (those academic discussion you like to disparage), that government spending has impacts, significant or otherwise. The important question is whether the impact is good or bad, short term or long term. As far as short term GDP goes, there is also the question of mirage or reality. GDP inflated by government spending which does not actually reflect organic economic growth is illusory and accompanied by a rising government debt. In the short term it may appear that so-called GDP has grown due to government spending due to raw numbers of dollars spent, but numbers adjusted to inflation and debt to GDP ratio may tell a different story, especially in terms of the long term economic health and government's credit reliability. The sequester (which was a bit of a mirage itself since only discretionary spending, not mandatory spending, was cut, and since actual spending would grow, just at a slightly smaller pace) would presumably have not only an illusory negative impact on GDP, but also a positive impact on debt to GDP ratio. Which would, supposedly, have a positive long term effect on growth.

But that's all academic. Besides, all that changes from election to election with future administrations cancelling their predecessors legislations and creating new ones. The trajectory consistently being growth of government debt and the debt to DGP ratio. Which leads to, as Piscator says, a big problem.

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Old 03-15-2014, 05:42 AM   #63
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it was sequestration AND the changes "in certain tax provisions" AND 1/4% attributed to "other" factors that would cause the 1.5% in depressed GDP that Spence is referring to

february 28, 2013

The fiscal tightening in 2013 is mostly a result of two developments: the expiration of certain tax policies that will lead to an increase in tax revenue (relative to 2012, payroll tax rates are higher and tax rates on income above certain thresholds have increased); and the automatic spending reductions scheduled to occur under current law (the sequestration). In the absence of those policies, real GDP would grow about 1¼ percentage points faster between the fourth quarter of last year and the fourth quarter of this year, CBO estimates. (The remaining ¼ percentage point reduction in economic growth due to fiscal tightening comes from other, smaller changes in spending and taxes.) The expiration of those tax provisions and the automatic spending cuts account for about equal portions of that 1¼-percentage-point effect. The spending changes have a smaller budgetary impact than the tax changes, but they affect GDP by a larger amount per dollar of budgetary cost.

Nevertheless, although CBO expects that reducing the amount of fiscal tightening this year would strengthen the economy in the short term, the resulting increase in federal borrowing would weaken the economy in the longer term unless other changes in spending or tax policy were made to offset that additional borrowing.


we live from short term mirage to short term mirage digging the hole deeper and deeper
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Old 03-15-2014, 03:11 PM   #64
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That will be the excuse running up into the election to ensure expectations are set as low as is possible. If the GOP can't articulate their message and simply runs against the ACA they will lose.


Christy isn't a "hard-line economic right winger". He's fiscally conservative but also willing to negotiate. In the eyes of his party that puts him on par with Che Guevara.


Yea, blame TV. It's not about a lack of ideas or collaborative spirit…it's about biased TV coverage

Keep beating that paper tiger.


Who's leapfrogging anything? The GOP has a chance of picking up Senate seats primarily because so many blue states are up for grabs.

Ultimately it comes down to who shows up to vote, and the divisions within the GOP will likely keep many voters at home.



Yes, the bellwether. Give me a break. For all your whining about the quality of news you sure are easily suckered into it.

This district was owned by a single republican for the past 4 decades. Jolly worked for Bill Young and ran as his successor. He was getting beat until outside cash helped him outspend the dem and eek out a narrow victory…that's going to be up for grabs again in November.

Really shivery stuff here.


The message and tone of the Tea Party darlings is out of step with most of America. They are offensive to many Republicans. If I was making the odds I'd be looking at how the TP will divide the GOP...


You left out the Tea Party's inability to process things like facts or reason. It's infatuation with contradiction and incoherence. That it's largely a corporate marketing phenomenon seeking not the best ideas but the most disruptive personalities.

The success of Tea Party candidates will likely be the primary factor if Hillary really is beatable or not.

-spence
"If the GOP can't articulate their message and simply runs against the ACA they will lose."

Yeah? Tell that to the 55 Dems who lost house seats in 2010 because of Obamacare, tell that to the heavily-favored Democrat who lost in Florida this week because of Obamacare.

"It's not about a lack of ideas or collaborative spirit…it's about biased TV coverage "

The fact that you would say we have a "lack of ideas", suggests that you have been duped by that TV coverage. You are proving my point quite nicely.

"Christy isn't a "hard-line economic right winger". He's fiscally conservative but also willing to negotiate" Tell that to the unions.

"the divisions within the GOP will likely keep many voters at home" Again, tell that to the lady who just lost in Florida, despite out-spending her opponent.

"This district was owned by a single republican for the past 4 decades" Interesting, then, that Obama carried that district twice.

"The message and tone of the Tea Party darlings is out of step with most of America" Like what? Living within your means? Strong national defense? The free-market, where you make your living I believe? Spence, can you please tell me which of the Tea Party's core values, is so antithetical to America? Again, you are not responding to what the Tea Party is actually saying, you are responding to what Rachael Maddow claims they are saying. When you listen to what they are saying, it's not all that radical or fringe-worthy.

"You left out the Tea Party's inability to process things like facts or reason" Ah, another generic insult for which we all see that you provided exactly zero evidence. You should demand more from yourself.

Got to go, I need to put on a white sheet and watch "Hee Haw" reruns, then wage war on women or some other bullsh*t that you claim we stand for.



Keep chugging the Kool Aid, Spence...
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