GOP Tax Overhaul

[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

2018: in the senate, the GOP could not have better hand-picked which seats are up for re-election. There are twice as many democrats up for re-election as republicans. And I believe there is one Republican up for re election in a state that Hilary won, and 8 or 9 democrats up in states that Trump won. It would take a major event for the democrats to pick up seats in the senate. And that could happen.

You may be right in the house. Or, if the Dow is at 30,000, unemployment is at 3%, and 80% of Americans are actually seeing a small bump in their net take home pay, they might remember that not a single democrat voted for any of that. That's the gamble with tax reform. It's why the democrats are scared sh*tless of that bill.

In 2020 I think Trump steps down, and Pence runs, hopefully with Nikki Haley. Unless God answers my prayers and Condaleeza Rice steps up. Lie-awatha will run for the Democats, maybe Sanders too. Can't see anyone else on the horizon, Chris Murphy (God help us) maybe...

You are not wrong on the senate, but even if it falls on the same lines one or two seats either way are huge. If Bannon gets involved and makes the gop voters divisive, all bets are off...
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND

You are not wrong on the senate, but even if it falls on the same lines one or two seats either way are huge. If Bannon gets involved and makes the gop voters divisive, all bets are off...
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Unless the economy crashes or we have a 9/11 event, I fail to see how the GOP doesn’t pick up senate seats. There are a few democrats up for re election in states that trump won by double digits. It’s just a horrible set of seats that happen to be up for re election, from the democrat perspective. It’s as if the gop hand picked which seats would be up.

As usual, you make an astute point about Bannon. He could screw the whole thing up.

There are several democrat senators who won purple states in 2012, largely because they rode Obamas coat tails. He can’t help them in 2018. And that will have an effect.


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[RIROCKHOUND]

Originally Posted by Jim in CT

Unless the economy crashes or we have a 9/11 event, I fail to see how the GOP doesn’t pick up senate seats. There are a few democrats up for re election in states that trump won by double digits. It’s just a horrible set of seats that happen to be up for re election, from the democrat perspective. It’s as if the gop hand picked which seats would be up.

As usual, you make an astute point about Bannon. He could screw the whole thing up.

There are several democrat senators who won purple states in 2012, largely because they rode Obamas coat tails. He can’t help them in 2018. And that will have an effect.


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You are correct, no Obama coattails, but there are votes that will come over with Trumps polarization. It will be telling who he endorses now and who wants his endorsement in the gop.

It will be an interesting year of politics.
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[Jim in CT]

Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND

You are correct, no Obama coattails, but there are votes that will come over with Trumps polarization. It will be telling who he endorses now and who wants his endorsement in the gop.

It will be an interesting year of politics.
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Very, very interesting.

If 80% of Americans really do see a tax cut, that's the whole GOP election message right there. "Vote for me, or your taxes will go back up, and you'll stop getting these $1,000 bonuses and minimum wage hikes." It's a smart political move by the GOP. The people who got those $1,000 bonuses, might not care that Trump is a reptile.