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Old 07-20-2022, 03:41 PM   #1
Pete F.
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The sky is falling

The number of people employed full-time hit an all-time record in May 2022, 132.8 million people.
Americans became the richest ever in Q4 '21, after big stock and housing booms. Real means adjusted for inflation. This is $14 trillion richer than the pre-pandemic peak, an increase of about $107,000 per household on average. The bottom 50% have record wealth too.
Real GDP, the key measure of the size of the economy in terms of income and production, regained the pre-pandemic peak in Q2 '21 and reached the all-time record in Q4'21 at $19.8 trillion. Despite the small drop in Q1 '22, GDP remains 2.8% larger than the pre-pandemic peak.
Corporate profits reached an all-time record in Q1 '22, at $2.74 trillion annualized, up about 30% vs. pre-pandemic. Don't ever say Democrats are bad for business!
Thanks to the Biden Rescue Act, real disposable personal income hit an all-time record in March '21 of $19.1 trillion. This is how much income people have to spend after taxes, annualized. At $15.1 trillion, it's still just above the pre-pandemic peak.
Federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2022 is running 80% lower than prior year, and 43% below the pre-pandemic level (2019). This is record deficit reduction and the main way the Biden Admin is fighting inflation by slowing the economy.
There is record job opportunity, with nearly 2 open jobs per unemployed person as of April '22 (latest data). This is a great time to switch jobs, with a nearly 14% increase in wages since Feb '20 pre-pandemic.
Perhaps the most important measure of economic health, the unemployment rate of 3.6% is just 0.1% from the 50-year low and at or below about 93% of our history back to 1948. Latino and Asian unemployment rates are below the pre-pandemic level.
Job creation rate of 542,000 per month since January 2021 (8.7 milllion total) is a presidential record. About 96% of the jobs lost due to the pandemic have been recovered.
Robust job growth, low unemployment, and record wealth do not a recession make. Federal Reserve Bank of NY estimates about 4% chance of recession in next year, assuming Fed doesn't overdo it on interest rate hikes.
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Old 07-20-2022, 03:45 PM   #2
Jim in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pete F. View Post
The sky is falling

The number of people employed full-time hit an all-time record in May 2022, 132.8 million people.
Americans became the richest ever in Q4 '21, after big stock and housing booms. Real means adjusted for inflation. This is $14 trillion richer than the pre-pandemic peak, an increase of about $107,000 per household on average. The bottom 50% have record wealth too.
Real GDP, the key measure of the size of the economy in terms of income and production, regained the pre-pandemic peak in Q2 '21 and reached the all-time record in Q4'21 at $19.8 trillion. Despite the small drop in Q1 '22, GDP remains 2.8% larger than the pre-pandemic peak.
Corporate profits reached an all-time record in Q1 '22, at $2.74 trillion annualized, up about 30% vs. pre-pandemic. Don't ever say Democrats are bad for business!
Thanks to the Biden Rescue Act, real disposable personal income hit an all-time record in March '21 of $19.1 trillion. This is how much income people have to spend after taxes, annualized. At $15.1 trillion, it's still just above the pre-pandemic peak.
Federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2022 is running 80% lower than prior year, and 43% below the pre-pandemic level (2019). This is record deficit reduction and the main way the Biden Admin is fighting inflation by slowing the economy.
There is record job opportunity, with nearly 2 open jobs per unemployed person as of April '22 (latest data). This is a great time to switch jobs, with a nearly 14% increase in wages since Feb '20 pre-pandemic.
Perhaps the most important measure of economic health, the unemployment rate of 3.6% is just 0.1% from the 50-year low and at or below about 93% of our history back to 1948. Latino and Asian unemployment rates are below the pre-pandemic level.
Job creation rate of 542,000 per month since January 2021 (8.7 milllion total) is a presidential record. About 96% of the jobs lost due to the pandemic have been recovered.
Robust job growth, low unemployment, and record wealth do not a recession make. Federal Reserve Bank of NY estimates about 4% chance of recession in next year, assuming Fed doesn't overdo it on interest rate hikes.
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Almost everybody is poorer than they were a year ago (in terms of purchasing power), because your rant ignored inflation, which unfortunately, is what people care about.

"unemployment rates are below the pre-pandemic level."

That's false, unless you believe that 3.5 is lower than 3.4.
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Old 07-20-2022, 05:32 PM   #3
Got Stripers
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim in CT View Post
Almost everybody is poorer than they were a year ago (in terms of purchasing power), because your rant ignored inflation, which unfortunately, is what people care about.

"unemployment rates are below the pre-pandemic level."

That's false, unless you believe that 3.5 is lower than 3.4.
It’s amazing that you in your infinite knowledge can speak for “everyone”, that’s like a super power.
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Old 07-20-2022, 06:06 PM   #4
Jim in CT
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Originally Posted by Got Stripers View Post
It’s amazing that you in your infinite knowledge can speak for “everyone”, that’s like a super power.
so you deny that 9.1% inflation makes most people poorer than they were? you think most people got a raise larger then 9.1% this year?

Do you even understand what you’re disagreeing with? you’re denying that 9.1% inflation reduces purchasing power for most americans? by what possible
logic would you deny that?
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Last edited by Jim in CT; 07-20-2022 at 06:30 PM..
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Old 07-20-2022, 09:19 PM   #5
spence
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Originally Posted by Got Stripers View Post
It’s amazing that you in your infinite knowledge can speak for “everyone”, that’s like a super power.
He just doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Jim’s home state which he deplores as a #^&#^&#^&#^&hole has a reserve fund 2.5 x the national average and an educational system second only to MA. Do you know one of the big reasons people are moving to Florida? Retirees who don’t want city living are heading there and their families are following them to stay close. Many blue states are seeing a lot of movement inward also.

I seriously don’t believe for one second he’s an actuarial.
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Old 07-20-2022, 09:28 PM   #6
Jim in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spence View Post
He just doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Jim’s home state which he deplores as a #^&#^&#^&#^&hole has a reserve fund 2.5 x the national average and an educational system second only to MA. Do you know one of the big reasons people are moving to Florida? Retirees who don’t want city living are heading there and their families are following them to stay close. Many blue states are seeing a lot of movement inward also.

I seriously don’t believe for one second he’s an actuarial.
(1) explain to us how i’m wrong, when i say that 9.1% inflation doesn’t make
most americans poorer, in terms of purchasing power

(2) any measure of CT’s economic health that excludes our long term debt ( tens of thousands of dollars for every human being in the state) is like judging the maiden voyage of the a titanic and excluding the iceberg.

make that wrong.
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Old 07-20-2022, 09:32 PM   #7
Jim in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spence View Post
He just doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Jim’s home state which he deplores as a #^&#^&#^&#^&hole has a reserve fund 2.5 x the national average and an educational system second only to MA. Do you know one of the big reasons people are moving to Florida? Retirees who don’t want city living are heading there and their families are following them to stay close. Many blue states are seeing a lot of movement inward also.

I seriously don’t believe for one second he’s an actuarial.
here, the Yankee institute estimates that CTs unfunded debt is $62,500 for every taxpayer. Meaning, to fund the debt, a family of 4 must pay the state $250,000, in addition to our current taxes.

Tell me how that’s not indicative of a horribly, horribly run state.

High taxes are bad. Massive debt is bad. Having both at the same
time, is next- generation incompetence.

Why are those retirees moving to FL in big numbers? Why not to southern CA?

“actuarial” is an adjective. I’m an actuary.


you sure got me on the ropes.



https://yankeeinstitute.org/2021/09/...ing-to-report/

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Last edited by Jim in CT; 07-20-2022 at 09:42 PM..
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Old 07-21-2022, 04:38 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pete F. View Post

The sky is falling

The number of people employed full-time hit an all-time record in May 2022, 132.8 million people.

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you need two full time jobs in the biden economy...
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