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SK would be hard pressed to go offensive with NK - not for military capability reasons as they are in decent shape and can roll back most if not all that Kim can send south. The major problem for SK is that Seoul is already in artilery / MLRS and easy short range missile / SCUD range from NK. While shelling and the ability to put astonomical amounts of shells into the city would certainly suck and have a disasterous effect on Seoul, chemical / biological tipped missiles lobbed into Seoul could kill hundreds of thousands to millions of South Koreans.
Japan could preemptively strike NK with less fear of retaliation. NK has no conventional systems that can realistically penetrate Japan even of they could reach it and the vast majority cannot. The only NK systems that could reach Japan are their rockets which may or may not work and may or may not have NBC capability. Some of which Japan could possibly intercept and possible mitigate effects on.
Still Japan kicking off against NK could anger China (lots of tension lately) and could trigger other other responses in the region. Especially if they were to target and damage nuclear facilities that could impact Chinese and Russian areas that border on / near NK...
If we kick off there is the good possbility of NK going for broke against SK and even have China interceed on NK's behalf.... Pretty muddled picture and now the "Dear Bastard" has confirmed he can toast off a nuke (at least in a test setting)...
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