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The Scuppers This is a new forum for the not necessarily fishing related topics...

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Old 11-07-2007, 11:54 AM   #1
spence
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did i miss something? which "pundits" were poo-pooing $100 oil?
Back when the last big run up subsided all the Conservative whack jobs were laughing at the alarmists crying that the sky was falling and that we should be doing something about it.

Well, here we are again...

-spence
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Old 11-07-2007, 12:49 PM   #2
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I just saw $107. Gonna be a long winter...

“It’s not up to the courts to invent new minorities that get special protections,” Antonin Scalia
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Old 11-07-2007, 01:17 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by spence View Post
Back when the last big run up subsided all the Conservative whack jobs were laughing at the alarmists crying that the sky was falling and that we should be doing something about it.

Well, here we are again...

-spence
links, cites?

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Old 11-07-2007, 03:15 PM   #4
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links, cites?
Don't need to do a research project.

From the usual suspects would this suprise you?

-spence
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Old 11-07-2007, 03:25 PM   #5
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I'm counting on global warming to keep my bills down. Al Gore's fear campaign can't be wrong can it? Home heating oil prices will be a thing of the past soon. The earth has a fever remember?

The charm of fishing is that it is the pursuit of what is elusive but attainable, a perpetual series of occasions for hope. ~John Buchan
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Old 11-07-2007, 04:13 PM   #6
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Don't need to do a research project.

From the usual suspects would this suprise you?

-spence
without proper context, i won't comment.

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Old 11-07-2007, 04:23 PM   #7
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You're got a creative mine, I'm sure you can visualize

How about that market today? How about that Dollar?

-spence
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Old 11-07-2007, 04:29 PM   #8
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"They" are now talking $300/barrel as a realistic target. Honestly, this is what is keeping me from buying a larger boat.The boating industry is about to go belly up (again) if this continues much longer.

Hybrid power boats don't seem to be on the drawing board.
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Old 11-07-2007, 04:47 PM   #9
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Cool

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How about that market today? How about that Dollar?

-spence
Well, I've been loudly bellyaching about the USD over at SOL for so long now, I can't remember when I started jumping up and down and yammering about it. Since I'm banned from the Tavern and the PG, I won't be yammering for a while there.

What's actionable?

1) Move to Europe.

Real wealth in this unbalanced environment will be measured by tangible resources. Not increasingly worthless dollars and financial vehicles (U.S. treasury and corporate bonds and most stocks) denominated in them, they should be avoided.

2) Buy gold and gold mining stocks ... when spot gold prices correct to $750/oz. My picks: GLD (commodity ETF) and GDX (basket of gold mining stocks). Gold is a bit overdone right now. Wait until it pulls back. Other than jewelry, avoid owning physical gold within U.S. territory. I predict it will be confiscated by the government. I $hit you not. You can buy physical gold (on the interblab) and have it held in a Swiss vault if you want. Everbank.com also has a gold-linked certificate of deposit (which appreciates with the price of gold and is FDIC-insured).

3) Buy commodities. We are in a commodities supercycle. The best way for the average joe to do this is to buy commodity ETF's (which trade like stocks) like USO (crude oil) and DBC (Deutsche Bank Commodity ETF).

4) If China continues its foreign currency reserve diversification, then it's time to buy foreign currency ETF's. Wait until the dollar retraces its most recent losses, however. The dollar could temporarily strengthen as money flows back to the U.S. if U.S. investments are regarded as a safe haven and the emerging market premiums get deflated.

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