Iranian gunboats trying to provoke US Warships - better video

[BigFish]

It would have been an International Incident had we responded with force.........which I think we should have! You warn them and they do not listen......blast away!

[animal]

Keep poking the bear,Mohammed.

[JohnR]

There is not a bunch of info out there yet, just speculation. Scuttlebutt has that the CO was in the process of giving the order to fire when they turned away - but that is just rumor. But the guns were manned and ready.

What were their Rules of Engagement? Don't fire until fired upon? Don't fire until the last possible moment (that moment was really close)? Sounds like the Navy was doing everything in accordance with law and seamanship.

If they did fire, would we be in a shooting war? Sure the Iranians were deserving to meet Allah, but this was probably just a probe to find out what it would take to or attempt to provoke the US into responding, or yet another time when Iran stirs the pot just before some big global meeting where Iran will get drug out on the carpet...

This has happened before and will happen again, I just hope the next time doesn't turn into a shooting war and if it does, Iran doesn't get its licks in first.

Pretty reckless by the IRGN

[spence]

I don't really think this is all that big of a deal. They were probably just seeing what they could get away with and what we might do. It's not like Iran wants any piece of a fight with the US.

They know we're not going to let another USS Cole happen, no Navy Capt'n is going to let that happen to their crew if they can help it.

So here we're supposed to be concerned about this "most dangerous nation on the planet" and all they can do is zip by the US Navy in a speed boat that needs a good hull painting?

This is the biggest threat to our national defense? Give me a break. We have bigger issues to worry about.

-spence

[Nebe]

Originally Posted by spence

IWe have bigger issues to worry about.

-spence

I need to give you your casserole dish back

[Backbeach Jake]

Don't they realize that there is a submarine nearby capable of starting Armageddon? Why in the World would you provoke such a response? Oh yeah, it's us, we'll either talk it to death or just plain Eff it all up.

[basswipe]

Originally Posted by spence

This is the biggest threat to our national defense? Give me a break. We have bigger issues to worry about.

-spence

The very biggest issue.Taking on a third arab country?VERY BIG.We're stretched thin already.Iran knows what it's doing,they prayed to allah we'd fire so they could "legitimately" enter into the current stupidity.When you truly believe god says its ok to kill you do it.

Add N.Korea,Pakistan,India,China etc. to the mix,then what...WW3maybe.We've done it twice already and no one saw it coming or they didn't believe it could happen.

This isn't paranoia,its reality.The possibility is real.

We should've CRUSHED our enemies when we had the chance but we blew it and now the world's sentiment is against us.

The rest of the world seems clueless these days how important America is to them.Ask anybody of Eur-Asian decent born on or before 1945.

Islam is scary in the 21st century.No more "lead,follow or get of the way".It's now "follow or die".

I would truly feel better knowing that an asteroid was plunging towards Earth than I would about the reality of our world situation.

After saying all that my recommendation would be drink heavily(or do some killer drugs) and hook up with the woman as often as possilble, try to get some fishing in.Don't worry be "happy"(drunk,stoned and laid).

That ain't just stirrin' the pot...its smokin it!

[fishpoopoo]

feeling each other out. keeping oil prices up.

Iran, U.S.: Ongoing Naval Incident Fallout
Stratfor Today » January 10, 2008 | 1640 GMT

Summary

Rhetoric has continued to fly regarding the Jan. 6 Iranian-U.S. naval confrontation, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now having released a video of its own to bolster its argument about how the incident played out. Of greatest significance, however, is the line Washington has drawn in the sand as a result of the incident.

Analysis

Rhetoric over the Jan. 6 incident in the Strait of Hormuz between U.S. warships and Iranian gunboats continued to fly Jan. 10 with the release of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) footage of the incident.

Both U.S. Navy and IRGCN videos (if authentic) appear to feature the same three U.S. warships. The vessels appear to be in the same formation, initially with the USS Ingraham (FFG-61) bringing up the rear. The IRGCN video also includes very clear shots of the bow markings of the USS Port Royal (CG-73) and the USS Hopper (DDG-70), as well as at least one Iranian gunboat of the same size and color as depicted in the U.S. video. At one point, the Hopper’s ship horn can be heard.

Notably, the U.S. video released Jan. 8 did not show a U.S. SH-60B Seahawk helicopter in the air, as the IRGCN video does. That a SH-60 was in the air for the transit is unsurprising, but it raises the possibility that there is unreleased U.S. footage shot from the helicopter. That the IRGCN also documented the encounter, though not guaranteed, similarly could be anticipated; such encounters in international waters commonly are recorded by navies everywhere. This is especially true of military encounters, where filming can allow tactically significant nuances of standard operating procedures to be observed.

Of course neither side has released raw, uncut footage of the entire incident, and both sides’ releases clearly are meant to highlight their respective governments’ claims about the incident. Thus the Iranian force’s behavior as depicted in the IRGCN video naturally appears very nonthreatening.

What matters at this point is not the details of this past incident, or whether one side or the other has overplayed its hand. What matters is the implications for future incidents.

Ever since World War II, the United States has sought to ensure freedom of the seas. Its warships routinely conduct transits of key disputed waters to demonstrate that the waterways remain international. With at least a fifth of global oil production flowing through that Strait of Hormuz and heavy U.S. naval operations in the Gulf in support of operations in Iraq, the strait’s importance is evident. Washington has every intention of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and free of shenanigans.

Harassing U.S. warships is not the same thing as deliberately interdicting the free flow of maritime traffic through the strait — but this is not a distinction the U.S. Navy is interested in making. Maintaining free movement for U.S. warships in international waters is a key tenant of U.S. geopolitical security and prosperity. To Washington, that free movement sets a precedent for the free flow of international maritime trade. Thus, U.S. President George W. Bush warned Jan. 9 of “serious consequences” should such an incident occur again.

Thus, what happened in the Strait of Hormuz on Jan. 6 is increasingly irrelevant. What now matters is the way Iran chooses to respond to Washington’s line in the sand. No doubt, the IRGCN will continue to observe U.S. warships, especially in the strait, but whether Tehran will choose to play hardball remains unclear.

Three things are clear, however. First, whenever the next encounter occurs, it will be extremely well-documented by both sides. Second, U.S. commanders have been issued very clear guidance on their standing rules of engagement based on the events of Jan. 6. Finally, should the IRGCN push too hard, it will find out just what being on the business end of a 25mm cannon means.

[spence]

Originally Posted by fishpoopoo

feeling each other out. keeping oil prices up.

Exactly. They have to love how a few speedboats in the right place can illustrate the potential for oil disruption.

At the same time they're enjoying the higher costs of global energy all the way to the bank.

-spence

[spence]

Originally Posted by basswipe

The very biggest issue.Taking on a third arab country?VERY BIG.We're stretched thin already.Iran knows what it's doing,they prayed to allah we'd fire so they could "legitimately" enter into the current stupidity.When you truly believe god says its ok to kill you do it.

Do you seriously believe that this incident had ANYTHING to do with militant Islam?

One thing the extreme Right Wing has done to the great detriment of all of us is to consistently insist that all issues with Arabs or Muslims are ultimately driven by religious militant extremism.

This in effect has taken potentially legitimate political issues off of the table leaving no middle ground for a public facing moderate stance.

Iran's position today is driven foremost by their government's need to maintain a balance of power with the Sunni Muslim world, and ensure a defensive position against Israel now that Iraq isn't in between them.

The notion that Iran seeks to destroy the US for fundamental religious reasons, our freedoms etc...is based on neoconservative rhetoric, not reality.

This does in no way mean that there isn't a threat from Iran, or that regional stability isn't a BIG issue (especially in terms of our economic security). But we need to fight the battle as it is, and not what some would like it to be.

-spence

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by spence

I don't really think this is all that big of a deal. They were probably just seeing what they could get away with and what we might do. It's not like Iran wants any piece of a fight with the US.

They know we're not going to let another USS Cole happen, no Navy Capt'n is going to let that happen to their crew if they can help it.

So here we're supposed to be concerned about this "most dangerous nation on the planet" and all they can do is zip by the US Navy in a speed boat that needs a good hull painting?

This is the biggest threat to our national defense? Give me a break. We have bigger issues to worry about.

-spence

OMG ! I agree with Spence!