How Bad Is It???

[The Dad Fisherman]

Don't forget to click 3 times....

[spence]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

If I think its good, it will be good. If I think its good, it will be good. If I think its good, it will be good. If I think its good, it will be good. If I think its good, it will be good. If I think its good, it will be good.

So depressing...

I work with product development manufacturing companies. We sell them software to improve productivity and enable innovation to help them design products faster, better and more efficiently.

The companies I work with are not depressed. They're leaning their processes, cutting costs where necessary and looking for ways to maintain or increase their competitive positions and apply core competencies to new markets.

Certianly the drop in free cash is painful, and those with weak balance sheets might even fail.

But nobody has hung it up.

-spence

[UserRemoved1]

Ok I'm hanging it up now. RIJim said it's bad so I might as well just curl up in a shell and quit now.

FOR SALE: EVERYTHING. Come make me an offer there's no sense going to work every day now.

Folks it's as bad as YOU make it. I've not stopped pushing my company forward. We've had a good year this year and I expect 2009 not to be any different

I've talked to every other small business in my building and they're not slow either. Small machine shop jobshop, gas detection sales & repair, antique auto parts

[FishermanTim]

If we use the medical field as a litinus test of how effective research and development will be utilized, keep in mind that during the strive to find a dure for cancer the researchers found that one of the treatments being tested had a unique and unusual side affect, that could be useful.

The result was the creation of pills like Viagra and Cialis.

So where are the earth-shattering, ground-breaking discoveries of cancer cures? They're still being "tested", where we now have who knows how many "treatments" for erectile disfunction?

Then there's the story of the electric car, but that's a (horror) story for another day.

The environment for ingenuity and innovation has been side-tracked by an environment of greed and self-gratitude. Oh, there are advances to me made, but like most things in our world, they come with a cost.

[EarnedStripes44]

The pirates are doing well. The Saudis just paid 150 million for that tanker. Thats gonna build a lot of seaside villas along the somali coast.

[EarnedStripes44]

never mind.... that was 150 million paid over the past year to the Pirates

[spence]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

yes, and with the drop in oil prices, companies will have less to invest, thus stopping research and exploration.
Energy technololgy as growth will no be viable for YEARS, at least 5-10. thats not growth. I stand by my statement.

There will be no shortage in research and exploration. Yes, areas that are thought to be less productive will be tapped into as late as possible, but the incredible demand for energy (even assuming declines in consumption from a global slowdown) will still mandate companies do everything to increase supply or innovate new technologies.

It simply has to happen or the human race with collapse. This on its own has an energizing affect on the economy.

-spence

[spence]

Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&

FOR SALE: EVERYTHING. Come make me an offer there's no sense going to work every day now.

Baldie, I'll give you a case of water packed tuna and a carboy of Poland Springs for your current inventory. Trust me, at this rate you're going to need it.

-spence

[Moses]

Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&

RI JIM there's no perception problem. Medical stuff is through the roof still, values have held VERY well, Athena just announced yesterday they are hiring 400 new employees in the next year in Maine alone.

Originally Posted by spence

What a lame thing to say

Look at the companies that produce oil and gas exploration equipment, they all have 10 year backlogs of orders.-spence

As my earlier post stated, my job is safe and as a company we are still hiring. I actually work for a medical software company. Our customers (hospitals, home care agencies, long term care facilities, etc) have been somewhat affected by 'an available credit' crunch but we have a backlog of over 1+ years of signed business.

Don't get me wrong, folks should be prudent in these times but everything is cyclical and some companies will fare far better than others during these tough economic times.

[The Dad Fisherman]

I bet the licqour companies and beer distributors will still do well......people drink in good times and in bad.

Going out less to save money will translate into staying home and entertaining more.

I would bet that supermarkets will show an upswing for the same reason...you may even see a resurgence in home gardens.

if you're a glass half full kinda guy...you might see this situation actually bring America back to simpler times and re-prioritize what's important.

or we could be over-run with mutant zombies that leave mankind in a spiral towards extinction....either way we will soon see

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by spence

So depressing...

I work with product development manufacturing companies. We sell them software to improve productivity and enable innovation to help them design products faster, better and more efficiently.

The companies I work with are not depressed. They're leaning their processes, cutting costs where necessary and looking for ways to maintain or increase their competitive positions and apply core competencies to new markets.

Certianly the drop in free cash is painful, and those with weak balance sheets might even fail.

But nobody has hung it up.

-spence

And I manage those projects, not in manufacturing though. and the first that will go is all projects, all research and all employees who dont get the donuts out the door.

[RIJIMMY]

Im trying to tell you guys that I am privy the analysis of some brilliant people and their forecast fro the next 2 years is grim. those that dont see the impact now, guess what - 1 months ago I opened 3 reqs for new employess, approved by the president of the company. last week we layed of over 50% of my team, all reqs frozen.
Im just saying BE PREPARED. The outlook financially is dismal. My debate is over. I will you all the best of prosperity

[UserRemoved1]

SHAVED Spence SHAVED. There is a big difference. Kinda like Brooks Brothers and Armani

I don't drink much bottled water. Shop opens at 4 tomorrow and be there early for the firesale

Originally Posted by spence

Baldie, I'll give you a case of water packed tuna and a carboy of Poland Springs for your current inventory. Trust me, at this rate you're going to need it.

-spence

[fishbones]

I'll take all of your kits for half a tank of heating oil, Scott. I figure by the time I can finish them, the economy will be flourishing and the prices for wood lures will be astronomical. And with you out of business, the demand for vintage #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^& stuff will be through the roof.

[The Dad Fisherman]

Interesting read....old article but interesting just the same

Can't Government Leave the Market Alone?
Forget Greedy Capitalism, the Real Problem Is Interference in Market Forces
Column By MICHAEL S. MALONE
Oct. 3, 2008 —


What if the current mortgage/credit crunch is not just an isolated financial crisis, but, in fact, the signal for the death of one era, and the (painful) birth of another?

If that is the case, it goes a long way towards explaining the bizarre nature of what we're seeing going on in Washington and on Wall Street & and suggests that we need a whole different set of solutions.

Living out here in Silicon Valley, the heartland of American innovation, it's hard not to be appalled by the events taking place 3,000 miles away in the seats of American finance and government -- and hard not to fall back on the 'pox on both their houses' attitude that polls say is increasingly common among American voters.

From where I sit, the United States government has embarked on two pieces of social engineering in the last few years. One was to make oil as expensive as possible to drive people to greater use of alternative energy sources -- because anything less would be irresponsible and destructive to the environment. The other was to enshrine home ownership (i.e., easy-to-obtain mortgages) as a new American right because anything less would be unequal and racist.

None of us voted on these decisions -- indeed, neither was even spoken about directly, much less debated. But nevertheless, both became national policy and both have sparked national, and now international, crises.

Once they became crises, both were blamed on "greedy capitalism," instead of what they really were: legislative interference into market forces.

Fine. We've been through this before, and no doubt we will see similar, government-induced crises again -- inevitably accompanied by administration officials and our elected representatives pointing at everyone but themselves.

But what makes this particular economic crisis so appalling, at least from this vantage point, is the sheer scumminess, corruption, short-sightedness and general incompetence of everyone involved. At least in the business world, especially in the take-no-prisoners world of high-tech, that kind of venality and ineptitude either gets you fired or kills the company; by comparison, in Washington, it puts you in charge of the recovery effort.

Nobody in this mess has covered himself or herself in glory.

President Bush seems to have had the right instincts on this, but as a lame duck who long ago burned up all of his public support, he mostly seems dithering and toothless. The Democrats declare that the nation is at risk, then go about as usual turning the bailout bill into another -- yet another -- partisan pay-off scheme to fund the next round of crisis-creating social engineering.

Corruption in Washington
It is a measure of just how corrupt the Dems have become that Sen. Chris Dodd and Rep. Barney Frank, who perhaps more than anyone in Washington, are responsible for this crisis -- not only are allowed to keep their committee seats, but run the press conference on the bailout.

The crowning moment, of course, comes just before the vote on the bailout package when Speaker Nancy Pelosi decided, putting the needs of her country first, to use the podium to attack the Bush administration and the GOP.

The Republicans, as we all heard, maturely responded to Pelosi by banging their little fists on the floor and refusing to play anymore. Wah-wah-wah. Remember when Republicans were the outsiders in D.C.? Now they are such corrupt Washington insiders that, like a group of palace courtiers, they are willing to put the entire U.S. economy at risk over protocol and etiquette.

As for the two presidential candidates, the less said the better. Sen. McCain, sensing a great PR opportunity to show that he is both a leader and a Beltway Pharisee, blasted into Washington, made a lot of noise, accomplished little, and was all but run back out of town. Sen. Obama, who appears to be up to his neck in Fannie Mae "contributions," did as he always does: said a few platitudes, (metaphorically) voted "Present" and took off as quickly as he could.

Meanwhile, while this absurdity is going on, the stock market tanks, and the U.S. economy loses $1 trillion.

It is impossible not to look upon all of this as kind of a vast, predictable pantomime. The same people who created the mess are honored for (sorta) getting us out of it, a few scapegoats go to jail, the real perpetrators not only escape punishment, but are often rewarded, a bunch of regular people get screwed (lose their jobs, go bankrupt), and a whole lot more end up paying the bill for 2 million failed mortgages that never should have been granted in the first place.

The American people know this, which is why:

1) They aren't taking this current crisis as seriously as pundits say they should -- after all, if our elected officials can play politics against their enemies, and take the time to lard the bailout bill with pork, why should they?

2) They have nominated for president two candidates who -- ostensibly -- represent "maverick" attitudes and "change."

The Economic Crisis
To my mind, what makes this economic crisis different from ones in even the recent past is that it has exposed the fact that there are, apparently, no real leaders left in Washington -- that the intellectual capital in the national capitol has fallen to a new low, if that's possible. Most of all, it shows that we can no longer look to D.C. for leadership into the rest of the 21st century.

Marxists and statists of all stripes are, as one might expect, rubbing their hands in glee and declaring this the final death crisis of capitalism. But I think just the opposite is occurring. What we are, in fact, seeing are the final death throes of governmental social engineering. As I noted two weeks ago, we are in a kind of Mentos-in-coke world right now -- where, thanks to tech, the sheer speed of transactions and the enormous breadth of response, almost any outside influence can quickly turn the whole economy (or culture) into an explosive brew.

As it happens, out here in Silicon Valley, we have been conducting our own social engineering experiments. Three, in fact, have been at least as sweeping as Freddie Mac's changing of mortgage eligibility rules. One of them has been to wire the entire world in a huge, high-speed global information grid (the Internet). Another has been to restructure the entire entertainment industry and its pricing model (the iPod). And the third has been to empower the citizenry to form groups based upon common interests, rather than the limitations of physical proximity (Web 2.0 -- social networks).

Here's the thing. All three of these multibillion-dollar projects have been pay-as-you-go, driven largely by individuals and companies that assume their own risk. They have instantly rewarded smart decisions and punished bad ones, they are tested every millisecond against human nature (i.e., the marketplace), they are biased towards efficiency over seniority, and most of all, they are voluntary.

And they are all succeeding.

We will get out of this current financial mess -- not by government fiat, but because entrepreneurs and smart corporate executives and hard-working everyday people will innovate us out of it. They will come up with the new financial instruments that restructure this debt, the new technologies that will generate the wealth to make up for this loss (as they did after 9/11) and ultimately create more jobs than are right now being lost.

And if Washington really wanted to help Americans (and there is no indication right now that it does) it would, the instant it passes the bailout bill, get to work -- not adding more regulations in response to this crisis, but stripping away the destructive ones we created after the last big one.

A good place to start would be Sarbanes-Oxley, which brilliantly keeps wealth out of the hands of regular workers (by keeping start-up companies from going public), all while costing, by my reckoning, $200 billion over the last six years.

Lessons for Washington
If the last two weeks have taught us anything, it is that Washington is not going to get fixed, no matter who is elected. The world is moving on. Seven-hundred-thousand people are joining, via the Web, the global economy each day. If the prognosticators are right, we are now only 1,000 days or so from crucial turning points in the world economy (the next billion consumers, universal wireless broadband, nanotech, thinking machines, etc.)

A new era -- with new rules, new winners and new losers -- is coming up on us fast, and we need to get ready for it right now. Our national leaders just had their chance to prove they were prepared for this new era -- and they have failed miserably. We now have to look elsewhere for leadership … and quickly.

[Slingah]

when your out of food, have to watch non-cable TV, burning your dining room set for heat, wearing patched-up old clothes and your whole family is huddled up crying....then it's BAD!!!! until then I'll keep on living....peace...

[spence]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

And I manage those projects, not in manufacturing though. and the first that will go is all projects, all research and all employees who dont get the donuts out the door.

The first thing that will go is "all projects?"

I see why you're so depressed.

-spence

[spence]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

Im trying to tell you guys that I am privy the analysis of some brilliant people and their forecast fro the next 2 years is grim. those that dont see the impact now, guess what - 1 months ago I opened 3 reqs for new employess, approved by the president of the company. last week we layed of over 50% of my team, all reqs frozen.
Im just saying BE PREPARED. The outlook financially is dismal. My debate is over. I will you all the best of prosperity

I'm not sure anyone has a good read on how this is going to play out. For every optimist there's a pessimist to balance it out.

That being said, I do think things are going to get much worse...but how much remains to be seen.

[fishaholic18]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

and the people I am getting my info from are heads of the Harvard Bus school and bank 10 mil a year and have been in the financial industry for 40+ years.

But I bet they couldn't fix their broken garage door with a coat hanger..
I could..
Common sense..Good to have..Tough to teach....

[striperman36]

Originally Posted by fishaholic18

But I bet they couldn't fix their broken garage door with a coat hanger..
I could..
Common sense..Good to have..Tough to teach....

And they work with YOU, JIM!! how lame can they be!!

[BigFish]

You guys notice the trend in here? The guys with 2 incomes still coming in think everything is fine and the folks with 1 income and 1 layoff or impending layoff are feeling the pinch? Hmmmm.......its quite curious! I am gonna pay close attention the next few months and see where the ax falls and how the tune will change for some!

[ProfessorM]

No sense worrying as there is nothing I can do. I have been part time for 8 years now so I am used to a reduced salary. Just have to live within your means. If a lay off happens it would most definitely hurt anyone but to sit around and wait for it to happen is not my cup of tea. I will cross that bridge if or when it comes. Going back to sticking my head in the sand.

[RIJIMMY]

Man, what is the world coming to when I actually agree with this guy!

Obama acknowledged Saturday that evidence is growing the country is "facing an economic crisis of historic proportions." He noted turmoil on Wall Street, a decrease in new home purchases, growing jobless claims and the menacing problem of deflation.

I guess Salty and WM50 still think this is just some wacky media over exageration.

[BigFish]

That crazy, wHAcKy media!! They just announced it was all a joke....an elaborate rouse that has been perpetrated over the course of the last 5 years! A very well orchestrated and detailed charade in which through the use of media outlets such as television, radio, newspaper and foreign media markets as well.....they managed to pull the wool over our eyes!!!

The truth is we all have jobs, our houses are paid for, there is no war and we all have lots of money!!! Wow what fools are we!

[RIJIMMY]

Originally Posted by BigFish

That crazy, wHAcKy media!! They just announced it was all a joke....an elaborate rouse that has been perpetrated over the course of the last 5 years! A very well orchestrated and detailed charade in which through the use of media outlets such as television, radio, newspaper and foreign media markets as well.....they managed to pull the wool over our eyes!!!

The truth is we all have jobs, our houses are paid for, there is no war and we all have lots of money!!! Wow what fools are we!

Thats basically what I have been telling Nebe about Bush.

[UserRemoved1]

RI JIMMY stop with the comments already. That's not what I said. I'm not going to sit and argue about this when I got work to do. Not worth getting worked up over this stuff.

I think alot of what is being said in the media is hype and exaggeration. I think for every guy that says it sucks right now there are others who don't see the same thing. I believe as do others that there are parts of the economy that are still growing. Not screaming fast but growing.

Sure the country might be in a recession. Sure unemployment may be high...it's been higher...The sky ISN'T falling and it's not worth getting all worked up about the stuff!

Besides Obama will take care of you and pay your mortgage after Jan 20

[RIJIMMY]

Dude Im not picking on you but in your postyou say - thats not what I said and in the next line that this is a lot of hype and media exaggeration.
Salty - the big 3 automakers are on the verge of collapse - 5 million jobs impacted
- the finacial bailout is unprescedented in our history

I left out the 30 other things going down the tube that mentioned in previous posts. I cannot see how the media is "hyping" this? Its reality. Its data driven fact.
The sky is in fact falling - thats what historic proportions means.

[BigFish]

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!

[The Iceman 6]

The sky is falling,we're all gonna die.

[5/0]

Originally Posted by RIJIMMY

If I think its good, it will be good. If I think its good, it will be good. If I think its good, it will be good. If I think its good, it will be good. If I think its good, it will be good. If I think its good, it will be good.

That a Boy Jimmy,just breath into the bag & you'll be fine

Originally Posted by The Dad Fisherman

Don't forget to click 3 times....

Priceless

Originally Posted by spence

So depressing...

I work with product development manufacturing companies. We sell them software to improve productivity and enable innovation to help them design products faster, better and more efficiently.

The companies I work with are not depressed. They're leaning their processes, cutting costs where necessary and looking for ways to maintain or increase their competitive positions and apply core competencies to new markets.
\

Spence,
I invested 12 yrs. in a printing Co.right oughta college,I worked in electronic pre press we had 12 Guy's in our Dept as computer tech industry grew at such a rapid rate we advanced to stay w/ the Jones's (back in da day)we went from courier to T1 then T3 then email proofs to dirtect to Plate,I was flying to N.Y & PA. every year for soft ware upgrades just to keep up w/ the Jones's!Also not to mention we mostly printed for investors like Fidelity,Pioneer,Eaton Vance,Putnum,Sun Life ect......
We went from 12 to 3 of us we still outputed better quality,higher volume because we had more automation tighter tolorances & had less man power........
The enevidable fell apon us we closed

Thank God
Im so glad it closed,I would not want to be there now(that is if it was still open)Im sure it would close along w/ other printing co.in this time of uncertainty and finacial squaler.
I'd be lost in the pool of un employment along with lost soles.

I will never forget the feeling of going into work day in and day out just watching my Buddys getting the ax and knowing it's comming my wayIt sucked & I'll pray for all of those who are going through the same.

On a different note,
My Wife and I keep things tight to the cuff,we watch our pennys food shop with coupoons ect.we have no car payments,(trailer only)absolutly no CC dept we try and sock away what ever we can just in case.We are very lucky to have jobs & that are in that are in no shot commings.



Bob