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| Political Threads This section is for Political Threads - Enter at your own risk. If you say you don't want to see what someone posts - don't read it :hihi: |
12-02-2008, 01:13 PM
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#1
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sick of bluefish
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: TEXAS
Posts: 8,672
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Back Beach
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Don't any of you guys remember 2001-2003? It wasn't all that long ago things were real ugly, followed by a five year growth spurt.
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yes, but then, the downturn was fueled by the terrorism threat. Basically a perception issue and consumer confidence. Today, this is not a perception issue, we have NEVER had a 700+ billion bailout package. We have not had this many housing forclosures. Even Roosevelts New Deal, had some tangible output, can anyone say they know what the 700 billion has done? No.
The past 10+ years we have built an economy on credit. Home loans, auto loans, credit cards. That bubble has burst. It is an absolute fact, this is not from CNN, but from senior investment analysis that our housing market is still 15-18% overvalued. If that continues to correct itself, you will see a doubling of the problems we have today. Doubling! 2009 will see many, many more layoffs. |
making s-b.com a kinder, gentler place for all 
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12-02-2008, 02:07 PM
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#2
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Respect your elvers
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: franklin ma
Posts: 3,368
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RIJIMMY
yes, but then, the downturn was fueled by the terrorism threat. Basically a perception issue and consumer confidence. Today, this is not a perception issue, we have NEVER had a 700+ billion bailout package. We have not had this many housing forclosures. Even Roosevelts New Deal, had some tangible output, can anyone say they know what the 700 billion has done? No.
The past 10+ years we have built an economy on credit. Home loans, auto loans, credit cards. That bubble has burst. It is an absolute fact, this is not from CNN, but from senior investment analysis that our housing market is still 15-18% overvalued. If that continues to correct itself, you will see a doubling of the problems we have today. Doubling! 2009 will see many, many more layoffs.
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Good points and I agree. I also look at the pessimism which usually accomodates market bottoms. Not sure its peaked yet, but its getting there.
Ever read Peter Lynch's book where he refers to the Mayan empire? They continually look backwards and worry about the same problems recurring, only to be impacted by something completely different? They built homes in the trees and suffered through fire.....then built homes in rock to avert fire, but were then destroyed by earthquakes....built homes near water to avert earthquakes, but were destoyed by floods, etc. I think he concludes by saying the "next big anything" usually turns out to be something different. In other words, this won't be the next 1929, but something different.
You mention perception and consumer confidence being factors in the early 90's. These two things have a lot to do with the current mire we're in now, too. Commercial lending is actually up over the last year according to a report one of my financial planners forwarded me. Consumers will follow at some point. |
It's not the bait
At the end of your line
It's the fishing hole
Where all the fish is blind
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12-02-2008, 02:28 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 3,650
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Back when I was on welfare during the Clinton Administration, I went to night school at Bryant. I can remember the professors saying that government should increase spending to stimulate an economy in recession. They had a bunch of small letters after their names and they wore tweed and were very convincing.
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12-02-2008, 02:45 PM
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#4
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Old Guy
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Mansfield, MA
Posts: 8,760
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Yup, thats the way to do it.
But, we are just printing money.
we don't have any value behind it.
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12-02-2008, 03:31 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: North Fork
Posts: 2,260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by striperman36
Yup, thats the way to do it.
But, we are just printing money.
we don't have any value behind it.
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Since when does value behind money matter when it comes to any government?All they do is just print more or more zeros on it and if that fails they issue new currency. |
Originally Posted by Flaptail
"Throw plugs like we do that will cause them to suffer humility. Pogies make any fisherman look good when bass are around. Bait is easy."
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12-02-2008, 03:52 PM
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#6
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Old Guy
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Mansfield, MA
Posts: 8,760
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and then we have rampant inflation.
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12-02-2008, 03:58 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 3,650
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We're experiencing deflation right now. Inflation favors debtors and punishes savers. Since we're a nation of debtors, its not as bad as it used to be.
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12-02-2008, 02:46 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Libtardia
Posts: 21,694
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just sold something!!...  |
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12-02-2008, 02:57 PM
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#9
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Super Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Georgetown MA
Posts: 18,204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nebe
just sold something!!... |
Blood and/or Semen don't count 
was it that big contract you were bidding on? |
"If you're arguing with an idiot, make sure he isn't doing the same thing."
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12-02-2008, 02:58 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Libtardia
Posts: 21,694
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