Here's my 2 cents. I don't have any data to back it up so at this point it's just a hunch.
During the Great Depression we didn't really have a middle class. The wealth distribution was really weighted towards the top, which left a large part of the population with little resources to deal with unemployment of up to 30%.
Today things have shifted quite a bit.
The rise of the Middle Class (due in part to a progressive tax system) created an enormous amount of wealth (due in part to trickle up economics) that's still out there (and made bigger by trickle down economics).
If you're young, chances are you have a higher standard of living to begin with than you might have during the Great Depression (or from now on we'll call it the Great DP
).
Given the global economy, the first to feel the pinch are the really poor, most of whom are now in other countries. It's quite possible that the outsourcing of most of our manufacturing base has actually insulated the US from an earlier or more rapid shock.
Now we're seeing a large loss of white collar jobs, which indicates that the situation is pretty bad.
I think 2009 is going to be a year of upside down statistics. Companies are going to continue layoffs as their sales decline, but at the same time other fundamental indicators should pick up later this year. IBM just anounced a positive earnings forcast, and the credit freeze appears to thawing somewhat...
That being said, an economy this big is like a huge tanker...it don't turn on no dime.
-spence
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