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| The Scuppers This is a new forum for the not necessarily fishing related topics... |
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08-25-2011, 11:55 AM
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#61
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Certifiable Intertidal Anguiologist
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Somewhere between OOB & west of Watch Hill
Posts: 35,270
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spence
I had read a potential for 10-15 feet but if the storm stays west I'd think long island would get it the worst.
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
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I agree, but historical models of 38 had lots of storm surge in the bay because the water couldn't get out.
I am so glad I didn't buy on Conimicut Point |
~Fix the Bait~ ~Pogies Forever~
Striped Bass Fishing - All Stripers
Kobayashi Maru Election - there is no way to win.
Apocalypse is Coming:
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08-25-2011, 12:12 PM
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#62
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Also known as OAK
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Westlery, RI
Posts: 10,408
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnR
I agree, but historical models of 38 had lots of storm surge in the bay because the water couldn't get out.
I am so glad I didn't buy on Conimicut Point
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It's actually because of the funnelling effect of the bay (less room for the water as you go North into the Bay). The same reason why the tidal range is higher in Providence than Newport |
Bryan
Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&
"For once I agree with Spence. UGH. I just hope I don't get the urge to go start buying armani suits to wear in my shop"
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08-25-2011, 12:18 PM
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#63
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Jiggin' Leper Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: 61° 30′ 0″ N, 23° 46′ 0″ E
Posts: 8,158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND
It's actually because of the funnelling effect of the bay (less room for the water as you go North into the Bay). The same reason why the tidal range is higher in Providence than Newport
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Yup, and it's the same situation in Buzzards Bay--very wide mouth, tiny neck (the Canal). In 54, Carol's storm surge almost wiped out the Taylor's Point area, where MMA sits today. I remember seeing dad's pictures of houses sitting on the RR tracks near Maco's. Swift's Beach is another bad area. In 38 a number of people were killed there, by the surge. |
Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools, because they have to say something.
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08-25-2011, 12:26 PM
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#64
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><(((°> ><((( °> ><(((°>
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Falmouth, Ma
Posts: 1,520
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um... so what happens when 4 models take it west and 4 take it east and Boston and the lower cape is in the middle  |
60 % of the time, it works every time.
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08-25-2011, 12:32 PM
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#65
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Jiggin' Leper Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: 61° 30′ 0″ N, 23° 46′ 0″ E
Posts: 8,158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny ducketts
um... so what happens when 4 models take it west and 4 take it east and Boston and the lower cape is in the middle |
You do what professional weather forecasters seem to do when they're presented with that scenario--flip a coin.  |
Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools, because they have to say something.
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08-25-2011, 12:36 PM
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#66
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Gloucester Massachusetts
Posts: 2,678
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I'm predicting that by the time it hits Cape Ann it will be a #1 with winds around 75 mph. Regardless of how powerful this storm is Cape Anners will be out driving along the shore watching the waves crashing along the rocky shore.
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08-25-2011, 12:39 PM
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#67
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Certifiable Intertidal Anguiologist
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Somewhere between OOB & west of Watch Hill
Posts: 35,270
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND
It's actually because of the funnelling effect of the bay (less room for the water as you go North into the Bay). The same reason why the tidal range is higher in Providence than Newport
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I was going to use "funneling effect" as that was how I understood from previous readings but didn't want to appear all nerdy   |
~Fix the Bait~ ~Pogies Forever~
Striped Bass Fishing - All Stripers
Kobayashi Maru Election - there is no way to win.
Apocalypse is Coming:
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08-25-2011, 12:53 PM
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#68
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Also known as OAK
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Westlery, RI
Posts: 10,408
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnR
I was going to use "funneling effect" as that was how I understood from previous readings but didn't want to appear all nerdy |
I am a living walking nerd in a fishermans body. can't help it...
fyi, 2pm NOAA-GFS model (Wind speed; the maroon is 60kts )
This is 0000 UTC Monday (Sunday Evening Local)
Watch for an easterly drift again..... |
Bryan
Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&
"For once I agree with Spence. UGH. I just hope I don't get the urge to go start buying armani suits to wear in my shop"
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08-25-2011, 12:58 PM
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#69
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Jiggin' Leper Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: 61° 30′ 0″ N, 23° 46′ 0″ E
Posts: 8,158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND
I am a living walking nerd in a fishermans body. can't help it...
fyi, 2pm NOAA-GFS model (Wind speed; the maroon is 60kts )
This is 0000 UTC Monday (Sunday Evening Local)
Watch for an easterly drift again.....
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Earl had us dead in his sights last year at this stage of the storm, and that one passed well to our east--I'm towards the eastern end of the Canal and we never saw wind gusts over 30 mph. I think the NWS had hurricane warnings posted for my area as little as 6 hours before Earl arrived, and it passed with TS warnings still in place.
UCT = GMT? There's a 4 hour lag between that and EDT, if so. That's 8 PM Sunday. Crap. |
Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools, because they have to say something.
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08-25-2011, 12:59 PM
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#70
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><(((°> ><((( °> ><(((°>
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Falmouth, Ma
Posts: 1,520
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that's bad right?
she's coming back more to the east then?
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60 % of the time, it works every time.
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08-25-2011, 01:02 PM
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#71
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Also known as OAK
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Westlery, RI
Posts: 10,408
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike P
UCT = GMT? There's a 4 hour lag between that and EDT, if so. That's 8 PM Sunday. Crap.
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Earl took a fairly hard left... not much shws Irene will do that...
ues UTC - GMT. High tide.... |
Bryan
Originally Posted by #^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&#^&
"For once I agree with Spence. UGH. I just hope I don't get the urge to go start buying armani suits to wear in my shop"
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08-25-2011, 01:07 PM
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#72
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Jiggin' Leper Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: 61° 30′ 0″ N, 23° 46′ 0″ E
Posts: 8,158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny ducketts
that's bad right?
she's coming back more to the east then?
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Who knows, at this point. The worst case scenario for RI/SE Mass, other than taking the eye wall dead in the kisser, is landfall around Watch Hill. Bob made landfall around Westport, and everything 40-50 miles to the east got creamed. This might have a bigger area of circulation than Bob. Pick your poison--do you want it going 50 miles east of the Cape, with TS storm force winds and up to 10" of rain on already saturated soil, causing trees to uproot? Or do you want it going 50 miles west, with hurricane force winds causing trees to snap?
Best case for us is it going up the Delaware River valley into NY around Binghampton. It needs a western track for that.
Last edited by Mike P; 08-25-2011 at 01:12 PM..
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Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools, because they have to say something.
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08-25-2011, 01:12 PM
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#73
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Certifiable Intertidal Anguiologist
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Somewhere between OOB & west of Watch Hill
Posts: 35,270
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Damn. Not what I want to see.
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~Fix the Bait~ ~Pogies Forever~
Striped Bass Fishing - All Stripers
Kobayashi Maru Election - there is no way to win.
Apocalypse is Coming:
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08-25-2011, 01:14 PM
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#74
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Jiggin' Leper Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: 61° 30′ 0″ N, 23° 46′ 0″ E
Posts: 8,158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RIROCKHOUND
Earl took a fairly hard left... not much shws Irene will do that...
ues UTC - GMT. High tide....
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I know, and there were one or two models showing that right hook about 40 hours ahead of it getting here. I don't see any model taking Irene that far east at this point  |
Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools, because they have to say something.
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08-25-2011, 01:16 PM
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#75
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Certifiable Intertidal Anguiologist
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Somewhere between OOB & west of Watch Hill
Posts: 35,270
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High tide. With that time and model that should have the strongest part of the storm pushing water up the funnel, at high Moon tide.
Nice.
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~Fix the Bait~ ~Pogies Forever~
Striped Bass Fishing - All Stripers
Kobayashi Maru Election - there is no way to win.
Apocalypse is Coming:
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08-25-2011, 01:17 PM
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#76
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Pembroke
Posts: 3,343
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Latest predicitions showing it to be a Cat one or TS by the time it gets here. Unless I'm missing something.
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08-25-2011, 01:28 PM
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#77
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Jiggin' Leper Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: 61° 30′ 0″ N, 23° 46′ 0″ E
Posts: 8,158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tysdad115
Latest predicitions showing it to be a Cat one or TS by the time it gets here. Unless I'm missing something.
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It's really still a crap shot 72 hours ahead of time. If it stays out over the water, it may not weaken to TS strength by the time it gets here. |
Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools, because they have to say something.
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08-25-2011, 02:19 PM
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#78
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><(((°> ><((( °> ><(((°>
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Falmouth, Ma
Posts: 1,520
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60 % of the time, it works every time.
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08-25-2011, 02:22 PM
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#79
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lobster = striper bait
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Popes Island Performing Arts Center
Posts: 5,871
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While we've had alot of model movement, GFS has stayed pretty much rock solid within 50-100 miles of its past tracks over the past 48 hours.
I'm a bit concerned with that as is RIRH.
If it stays east of hatteras its not going to degrade.
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Ski Quicks Hole
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08-25-2011, 02:50 PM
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#80
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lobster = striper bait
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Popes Island Performing Arts Center
Posts: 5,871
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny ducketts
um... so what happens when 4 models take it west and 4 take it east and Boston and the lower cape is in the middle |
YAHTZEE!
I'll get my coat.
Maybe I'll catch the barrier closing. If I do I'll video it.
Last edited by likwid; 08-25-2011 at 03:19 PM..
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Ski Quicks Hole
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08-25-2011, 04:46 PM
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#81
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Mansfield
Posts: 4,834
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tysdad115
Latest predicitions showing it to be a Cat one or TS by the time it gets here. Unless I'm missing something.
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That's the way I see it. Cape is going to have a narly noreaster. |
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08-25-2011, 06:30 PM
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#82
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Old Guy
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Mansfield, MA
Posts: 8,760
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It's comin for me in maine
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
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08-25-2011, 07:02 PM
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#83
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Jiggin' Leper Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: 61° 30′ 0″ N, 23° 46′ 0″ E
Posts: 8,158
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2 PM forecast models (despite the 5 PM header). Note the GFS model in red---it's moved east of where it was at 8 AM this morning.
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Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools, because they have to say something.
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08-25-2011, 07:22 PM
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#84
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: RI
Posts: 21,463
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I think people are going to see the more western track and think it's going to blow by...even if it hits NYC or CT dead on RI is likely to get pounded. New England just ain't that big and this storm is still pretty huge.
-spence
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08-25-2011, 09:24 PM
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#85
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Jiggin' Leper Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: 61° 30′ 0″ N, 23° 46′ 0″ E
Posts: 8,158
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8 PM GFS model still has it going a little east. Even the western tracks don't help us very much, except to the extent they cause it to weaken as it passes up the eastern third of NJ.
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Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools, because they have to say something.
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08-26-2011, 05:05 AM
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#86
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Jiggin' Leper Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: 61° 30′ 0″ N, 23° 46′ 0″ E
Posts: 8,158
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Aw #^&#^&#^&#^&---all of the 5 AM models have it tracking farther east than yesterday's.  |
Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools, because they have to say something.
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08-26-2011, 05:27 AM
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#87
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lobster = striper bait
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Popes Island Performing Arts Center
Posts: 5,871
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Yep, models are moving east....
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Ski Quicks Hole
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08-26-2011, 07:27 AM
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#88
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Jiggin' Leper Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: 61° 30′ 0″ N, 23° 46′ 0″ E
Posts: 8,158
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The Weather Channel has to be using 3 day old models. 
I like this feature, but I'm not liking the picture it's painting. This is Carol Redoux, except that it'll probably be a strong cat 1 and not a cat 3 when it gets here.
WunderMap Interactive Radar & Weather Stations : Weather Underground |
Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools, because they have to say something.
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08-26-2011, 08:05 AM
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#89
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Libtardia
Posts: 21,690
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I'm not buying the hype. Strong tropical storm... Mild damage. Some flooding. Nothing like the last 2 hurricanes we have had. Just my opinion...
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
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08-26-2011, 08:12 AM
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#90
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Certifiable Intertidal Anguiologist
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Somewhere between OOB & west of Watch Hill
Posts: 35,270
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nebe
I'm not buying the hype. Strong tropical storm... Mild damage. Some flooding. Nothing like the last 2 hurricanes we have had. Just my opinion...
Posted from my iPhone/Mobile device
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Not buying the hype but trying to be reasonably prepared & prudent. Even have my beer* if it fizzles I can switch to my non-game-face.
* a nice Belgian White - did a functional verification and validation test last night and that was working as well. |
~Fix the Bait~ ~Pogies Forever~
Striped Bass Fishing - All Stripers
Kobayashi Maru Election - there is no way to win.
Apocalypse is Coming:
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